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  • Offseason Status Update: Time to Pivot


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins got their catcher, but that development was overshadowed days later when they missed out on their shortstop and top offseason target. 

    The front office has a sizable cash reserve but few remaining paths to spend it. They've buoyed their floor but failed to raise their ceiling in any way. Where do we go from here?

    Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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    Carlos Correa Signs Mega-Deal with San Francisco Giants

    Sadly, the biggest headline of the Minnesota Twins offseason thus far has been their heartbreak: Correa, whom the team pursued with a level of intention and aggressiveness that far surpasses any free agent target in franchise history, opted for the San Francisco Giants. Thirteen years, $350 million. Whew.

    In the end, despite pushing themselves to (or past) their limit, the Twins ultimately fell vastly short of the big-market Giants, who made Correa the second highest-paid free agent in MLB history. 

    It was a level the Twins were never going to realistically reach. Although they made an adamant effort and were, by all accounts, the runner-up for Correa, they came nowhere near matching the giant offer. Now the front office must regroup and figure out what's next. High-end options have dwindled and impact trade options are limited. 

    On the bright side, they do have the luxury of aiming basically wherever they please in terms of making upgrades, because the Twins checked off their last essential need from the shopping the list earlier in the week by signing a new catcher.

    Twins Sign Christian Vazquez to Three-Year Deal

    The front office was able to confidently address its top non-Correa priority of the offseason: signing a catcher who can not only share time with Ryan Jeffers at catcher, but take over as the lead dog if needed.

    On Monday we learned that the Twins agreed to terms with Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million. While it barely registers in comparison to the mammoth $285 million offer to Correa, Vazquez's new contract amazingly ranks as the third-largest signed by any free agent under this front office. 

    While certainly not to be confused with a viable "big splash of the offseason," the Vazquez signing is a bold and assertive one from the front office. He's no star, but he's a respected, reliable, experienced backstop who offers tremendous stability at a position that had little, and adds credibility to Minnesota's position player unit.

    That's all well and good, but a downtrodden fan base needs more than a solid catcher who fills a need. The Twins need a signature move or two to salvage this wayward offseason. Unfortunately, one of the few remaining star-caliber assets on the market was snatched up on Thursday night.

    Yankees Reel in Carlos Rodon on Six-Year Contract

    It's unclear how hard they tried, but Minnesota's hopes of acquiring a frontline starter from free agency have officially gone kaput. The last ace-caliber arm is now off the board after Rodon agreed to a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees. 

    I'll be honest: I'd want no part of that deal. As great as he's been over the past couple seasons, Rodon is an extremely volatile property and the idea of entering a six-year guaranteed pact with those kinds of AAVs makes me all kinda nervous. If they're gonna spend that kind of money on a starting pitcher it shouldn't be out of leveraged desperation.

    Still, it would've been a major statement move, and now there aren't many such opportunities for one. In fact, on the free agent market, there's only one.

    Twins Turn Their Attention to Dansby Swanson. Then What?

    The Twins have been connected via rumors to Swanson but I always suspected it to be a negotiating ploy to gain leverage in Correa talks. My skepticism mainly stems from the fact that he seems like the type of high-risk long-term investment this front office avidly avoids. 

    However, from talking to a few trusted people, I do get the sense the Twins are legitimate in their pursuit, contradicting a Jon Heyman report that they "appear to be regrouping after losing out on Carlos Correa, so Swanson’s likely out."

    I can't say I'm at all confident they'll sign the former Braves shortstop, but I do believe they're going to give a real shot. They'll face stiff competition because they're not the only club that missed out on numerous top targets and has money left to burn.

    Should they miss out on Swanson, it'll be interesting to see if the Twins can find a way to spend their way back to the 2022 threshold. Or if they even care to do so.

    Roster and Payroll Projection: v3

    The specific breakdown of Vazquez's $30 million deal haven't been revealed yet, to my knowledge. But assuming it's split evenly at $10 million/year, his addition pushes the projected 2023 payroll up above 100 mil by just a hair. 

    twinsroster121522.JPG

    Unless the Twins can pull a stunner and sign Swanson, or pull a rabbit out of their hat with a big trade, it's going be a dreary and bleak holiday for baseball fans in Minnesota, who've had to sit idly by while watching everyone else open up their awesome presents.

    New uniforms and Christian Vazquez ain't gonna cut it. The front office needs to step up and take action unless they want a large portion of their followers to simply check out.

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    Hello TD faithful, hate to comment on the emperor's wardrobe, but...  the Twins ARE currently in a full re-build.  Just about to get to the other side.

    A team that finishes with a rookie leading the team in RBIs and a rookie leading the team in Wins is in a full re-build. (by definition?)

    Remember last year at this time?  We had signed D Bundy?  We were looking at a 110 Loss team!

    The FO plan to have a plethora of Major League ready pitchers (AAA, AAAA n MLB) and have them compete for innnings is working (Cleveland model).  Pitching isn't the problem.

    We need a big bopper, think a Sano that can actually hit the ball.  Abreu would have been good.

    ACTIONS: 1) trade Kepler and Polanco; they have trade value and we have plenty of replacements for these dudes, 2) Sign another CF, perhaps A McCutchen or M Brantley (not really a center fielder, but great hitter), 3) Sign another BP dude (T May, T Rogers come to mind)

    Please temper expectations.  MLB is just not fair.

    Also, during the regular season, the Twins need to play mind games when we play the big boys, at least PRETEND that you are in a playoff series (Cleveland, Dodgers, Y (Sp) ankies obliterated the Twins in certain key series last year.

    We are almost there TD faithfu!

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    21 minutes ago, rv78 said:

    This organization is lost. It has no direction, no willingness to do what it takes to win either short-term or long-term.

    I'm not sure this is exactly true because I don't know what Falvine have in their minds. It is really hard to see a path under their direction whereas the strategy was more apparent under Terry Ryan. The Falvines have the resumes so they hold the keys to whatever is going to happen. Cautious is a word that comes to mind to describe the Falvine tenure. Every move is cautious and the team plays with caution too. Caution is a safe investing and business strategy but I'm not to sure it is effective in sports. I'm still waiting for some moves and a new focus for the Twins.

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    We're good to go without free agents. Farmer at SS is more than adequate. No Correa, but in the same ballpark. Trade Kepler, whose immaturity at the plate and in his decision to go unvaxxed at a time when it was dangerous to do so and kept him out of Canada (BTW, 373 Americans died yesterday of Covid, and that's about average) tells me he needs to try his luck someplace else if anybody will give the Twins good weight in return. If he's not traded, though, we'll have an elite outfield defensively and maybe a different Twins coach can get the young man to try something a little different, since doing the same ugly thing repeatedly with the same results is the definition of insanity. Arraez and Kiriloff (if healthy) at first, Polanco, Farmer, Miranda. Vasquez behind the plate with Jeffers still coming of age. A potential ace or two on the starting staff and elite relievers. What more can we want, except maybe a manager who doesn't pull starters after a designated number of pitches? I don't see any hurry to make deals. With luck, Lewis will be at SS by the All-Star break. Let suitors come to us, not vice  versa. Last year the FO traded the closer at the last minute without much return. Not a good look. I think, and you might disagree, that the team has all the pieces in place if players deliver what we have a right to expect.

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    12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    If you won't sign big time FAs (or even second tier ones like Bassit)....and you keep trading prospects, how do you plan to have long term, sustained, success without prospects because you keep trading them instead of spending money.

    Exactly.  Either pony up or embrace who we really are.  Since we won’t do the former, we’d better do the later. Unfortunately, this FO will do neither.

    I can live with a rebuild. I like a lot of our young talent. But what is hard to stomach is trading that talent and/or not developing it.  This FO and manager are not right for the strategy we must embrace if we want to have a true chance to compete.

     

     

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    There has to some realism in these offseason approaches by the FO.  If they're not going to be serious about going after a top tier free agent, then they need forget about those and pursue the next tier down and do it more aggressively.  Going after a top tier FA half-assed while allowing lower tier players to sign elsewhere in the process is not the way to conduct an offseason.  If they're going to go after a top tier FA, then they need to do it seriously.  Otherwise, don't pursue them at all and get more of the less flashy names to fill out a roster.  This team is much further away from competing than a Correa.  Coming up empty and/or needing to trade for guys to fill the roster holes isn't a sustainable approach.

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    13 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

    Pivot to what?  Full rebuild time.

    They have been rebuilding since the Mauer, Morneau, Hunter years.  We get a glimpse of hope at times, Cruz, Correa, Buxton, Berrios but they a shortlived.

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