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This summer, Minnesota finds themselves in the thick of a hotly contested race for the AL Central title. Thank in part to overachievement on their end, and underwhelming results from the Cleveland Indians, Paul Molitor’s club remains on the heels of the division leader. Down the stretch it will be pitching that ends up being the difference maker.
Over the course of the past few weeks, the Twins will have acquired two-fifths of the Atlanta Braves starting rotation. With Bartolo Colon being joined by Jaime Garcia, Minnesota has welcomed two National League pitchers. Despite a generally accepted downtick in moving from the National to American League, both pitchers find solace in what the Twins have to offer.
First, Colon came over to the Twins after spurning the Mets, a club he had previously played for. Noting the ability to compete for a postseason berth, Colon stood to improve upon his 2017 showing. With an ERA north of 8.00 for Atlanta, the once heralded strike thrower has apparently abandoned his pinpoint accuracy. After owning an MLB best 58% zone rate (pitches thrown in zone) a season ago, he’d dipped all the way to 49% this season.
While Baseball Prospectus’ numbers help to highlight inefficiency this season for Colon, they also may signify a roster deficiency he was affected by. In 2016 pitching for the Mets, both Rene Rivera and Travis d’Arnaud found themselves graded favorably by StatCorner’s oStr% (pitches out of the zone called strikes) as well as calls generated. Conversely, Kurt Suzuki (now the Braves catcher) ranked among the league’s worst. He’s continued to be a poor receiver in 2017, albeit not to the extent of a year ago. It should be noted however that battery mate, Tyler Flowers does grade out well.
Although what happens behind the plate is just a small part of pitching, it’s understandably part of the equation. For Colon, and maybe more importantly the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, defense comes into play as well.
A season ago, the Twins -49 DRS (defensive runs saved) ranked as the third worst mark in all of baseball. The club also owned the third lowest UZR (ultimate zone rating). Not only did they not make good baseball plays, but the club also was unable to track down and convert balls in play into outs. Fast-forward to 2017, and Minnesota finds themselves eighth in DRS (18) and 11th (8.5) in UZR. The uptick has created a stark contrast year over year.
Despite not addressing pitching this offseason, the Twins did take it upon themselves to improve in a different way. While much was made about Jason Castro’s pitch framing behind the plate, his overall impact can’t be overstated. Yes, he’s an above average receiver, but he also calls a strong game and represents a monumental swing from what the Twins employed in the past.
In bringing Castro into the fold, the Twins helped their pitchers behind the dish, and it is the maturation of their youth that has helped in the field. Miguel Sano brings up the rear of the club being worth -8 DRS at the hot corner, but Jorge Polanco being average (0 DRS) at SS has been a massive boost. Byron Buxton paces all big league center fielders with 18 DRS, and trails only the Red Sox Mookie Betts (24 DRS) among outfielders. Pairing him on a nightly basis with Max Kepler (5 DRS) only strengthens the outfield. Throw in Joe Mauer currently the best defensive first basemen not named Brandon Belt, and you’ve got a solid situation.
As a whole, the Twins decided to overlook pitching for the most part. What they’ve done instead is raise the level of the pitchers they do employ by making sure everything else is at a higher level. Thanks in part to the defense Minnesota has constructed around the mound, the organization now is in a place to offer that as a selling point to prospective hurlers in the coming months. Whether or not the Twins sign or deal for any names over the offseason, they have one heck of a sales pitch to make.
Is there always going to be some level of uncertainty when it comes to a guy with a bloated ERA from the opposite league, or coming off some sort of injury? Absolutely. On the flip side though, there’s also a very real notion that because of the infrastructure the Twins have in place, they offer the opportunity to make any newcomers better. Whether that guy is an ace of another staff or not, it stands to reason that the eight supporting cast members on the diamond are finally a selling point for Minnesota.
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