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  • Twins Kick Baltimore Tires


    Jeremy Nygaard

    The Twins have been busily working the phones in advance of next Friday’s trade deadline. I reported here earlier this week that Twins had at least reached out to the Rockies about Troy Tulowitzki. More recently, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press talked about the team’s search for power arms. He also previously had looked at the Twins needs behind the plate.

    Image courtesy of Tim Heitman/USA Today Sports

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    Earlier on Saturday, I learned that the Twins have had preliminary dialogue with the Baltimore Orioles about addressing both the catching need and - although not a “power arm” - getting some help in the bullpen.

    The players of interest are pending free agents Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day.

    Matt Wieters, a 29-year-old catcher, is represented by Scott Boras. Boras clients are well-known for playing out their contracts and testing free agency. Wieters recently returned from Tommy John surgery and has only played 32 games so far this year. Though he’s hitting nearly his career batting average of .256 (.243), his on-base percentage is a career-low .272. Wieters, a switch-hitter, performs better from the right side of the plate, so he wouldn’t form a great platoon partner with Suzuki. In fact, Wieters has only caught back-to-back games once this year (against the Twins), so his presence would only reduce Suzuki’s playing time.

    Wieters would be a step-up in countering the running game. Even with a recovering elbow, Wieters has caught 30% of would-be base-stealers, a step up from Suzuki’s 19%. Neither Wieters nor Suzuki do much in the pitch-framing category (as least not recently), though Wieters had scored better there in his earlier years. He also was a two-time Gold Glove winner.

    Darren O’Day, a 32-year-old right-handed reliever, represented the Orioles as a first-time All-Star this year in Cincinnati. After joining Baltimore as a waiver claim in late 2011, O’Day cashed in on a multi-year deal and in 242 career games for Baltimore has a 1.97 ERA, a 0.939 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6, including a career high of 11.9 this season (47 whiffs in 35.2 innings pitched).

    O’Day has been serving as Baltimore’s eighth inning guy, a role which appears unsettled for the Twins at this time, as Trevor May served as that bridge on Saturday night. O’Day is unique is that he throws side-armed so, despite the 86 mph fastball and 78 mph slider, there is plenty of deception. His slider is nasty. In his career, O’Day has eaten up right-handed batters to the tune of .189/.257/.534. He has been much more susceptible to left-handed hitters.

    Neither seem like perfect fits for the Twins as they look to patch some holes before the deadline, but - as I mentioned earlier in the week - the Twins are doing their due diligence with potential sellers. (And I cannot emphasize that enough. The Twins are having hundreds of conversations with teams around the league.)

    No article about a trade would be complete without the second part… “Who would the Twins have to give up?” Well, there is a very good chance that Oswaldo Arcia’s name was brought up. There also appears to be a desire for the Orioles to add to their pitching corps as two of their young studs - Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy - were shut down for the year.

    Would a package of Arcia, who will be out of options next season but still four years from free agency, and a pitching prospect - like Kohl Stewart - be too much to give up for a couple of rentals?

    Conventional wisdom probably says yes.

    But having Darren O’Day at Target Field on Saturday sure would have helped. Twelve times Alex Rodriguez has faced him. One single. Six strikeouts. An OPS of .258.

    The Twins do go to New York in the middle of August and maybe a couple of Orioles could help shut those Yankees fans up. Finally.

    (But, really, I'm not picky... I'll take anyone who can help shut Yankee fans up.)

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    You unfortunately can't trade guys on the bubble, like Vargas and Santana. They have experience, but not showing signs of improvement. Now Aaron Hicks, may be at his most valuable of his career. Unfortunately, he's not an elite player by any means...yet.

    It'd be great to move either Hicks or Rosario but I think their value in trade won't come until the offseason.

     

    Rosario is probably worth more right now but Hicks will probably bring more in the offseason (extrapolating current performance through September). Considering the team has Buxton in the wings, it makes sense to move one of those players if someone is interested.

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    It'd be great to move either Hicks or Rosario but I think their value in trade won't come until the offseason.

     

    Rosario is probably worth more right now but Hicks will probably bring more in the offseason (extrapolating current performance through September). Considering the team has Buxton in the wings, it makes sense to move one of those players if someone is interested.

    Why is that a great move? The Twins don't have a lot of OF depth at AA and AAA with MLB potential. I would think Rosario and Hicks' youth and the promise they've shown this year would be desirable to hold on to unless they want to sign a FA this offseason or commit to Arcia. Buxton looked like he still needs polish so you can't automatically assume he's helping the club next year either.

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    Why is that a great move? The Twins don't have a lot of OF depth at AA and AAA with MLB potential. I would think Rosario and Hicks' youth and the promise they've shown this year would be desirable to hold on to unless they want to sign a FA this offseason or commit to Arcia. Buxton looked like he still needs polish so you can't automatically assume he's helping the club next year either.

    Buxton has to play at some point and he's not going to spend much more time in the minors. Even if he comes up and posts an OPS of .600, he has value because he's an outstanding defender with ridiculous speed.

     

    And I really disagree the Twins don't have a lot of OF talent.

     

    Buxton

    Hicks

    Rosario

    Kepler

    Arcia

     

    All are in AA or higher and three of them are natural centerfielders. Trading one of them to shore up a weakness at another position is smart management. Is there a chance all of them fail? Sure... but that's a chance you need to take to improve the team as a unit.

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    It'd be great to move either Hicks or Rosario but I think their value in trade won't come until the offseason.

     

    Rosario is probably worth more right now but Hicks will probably bring more in the offseason (extrapolating current performance through September). Considering the team has Buxton in the wings, it makes sense to move one of those players if someone is interested.

     

    If we're dealing Rosario, it may behoove us to get him a few games at 2nd or 3rd to increase his value to teams needing a 2B or super-utility Zobrist kind of player.  His bat profiles more of 2B than a corner.  I can't imagine Hicks having much value on the trade market.  He's having a career year right now, which is essentially Dozier with 1/4 the power.  On the other hand, if the rest of baseball still sees him as an elite defender (certainly not) and 5-tool prospect (neither the tools nor "prospect" really fit) then we should deal him before they really look at it.

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    If we're dealing Rosario, it may behoove us to get him a few games at 2nd or 3rd to increase his value to teams needing a 2B or super-utility Zobrist kind of player. His bat profiles more of 2B than a corner. I can't imagine Hicks having much value on the trade market. He's having a career year right now, which is essentially Dozier with 1/4 the power. On the other hand, if the rest of baseball still sees him as an elite defender (certainly not) and 5-tool prospect (neither the tools nor "prospect" really fit) then we should deal him before they really look at it.

    It's premature to say Hicks is having a career year. It could be a blip on the radar, it could be a 25 year old player turning the corner.

     

    That's why I noted "assuming current production continued through September" in my post.

     

    People wrote off Hicks far too early. Yeah, he was terrible. He was also 23-24 years old and badly mismanaged. He's not some 29 year old jouneyman. He's a 25 year old that still has big upside. He may not continue being the hitter he is today but I wouldn't bet against it, either.

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    If we're dealing Rosario, it may behoove us to get him a few games at 2nd or 3rd to increase his value to teams needing a 2B or super-utility Zobrist kind of player.  His bat profiles more of 2B than a corner.  I can't imagine Hicks having much value on the trade market.  He's having a career year right now, which is essentially Dozier with 1/4 the power.  On the other hand, if the rest of baseball still sees him as an elite defender (certainly not) and 5-tool prospect (neither the tools nor "prospect" really fit) then we should deal him before they really look at it.

     

    Hicks.     .271/.335/.387  .722 OPS 14.5 K%   .297 BABIP 0.5 dWAR

    Rosario. .284/.308/.418  .725 OPS  23.3 K%  .359 BABIP 0.3 dWAR

     

    I really think it would be a mistake to trade Hicks.  Not only is he a better defender but his ability to take a walk and the fact that his K's have come down each year is just a great trend.

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    Buxton has to play at some point and he's not going to spend much more time in the minors. Even if he comes up and posts an OPS of .600, he has value because he's an outstanding defender with ridiculous speed.

     

    And I really disagree the Twins don't have a lot of OF talent.

     

    Buxton

    Hicks

    Rosario

    Kepler

    Arcia

     

    All are in AA or higher and three of them are natural centerfielders. Trading one of them to shore up a weakness at another position is smart management. Is there a chance all of them fail? Sure... but that's a chance you need to take to improve the team as a unit.

    I was excluding Hicks and Rosario because they're presently on the 25 man and assuming Buxton is the eventual CF of the future so was directing that statement at everyone left...Keplar and Arcia. Is Keplar ready next season? Arcia should be (and probably should be on the roster now) but he's obviously not a great defender.  Having 3 natural CFs in the outfield probably wouldn't upset the pitching staff too much but I'd be fine getting rid of one of them for a more needed piece if they want to commit to Arcia in the OF. 

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    In looking at Hicks' monthly splits this year, it's hard to believe it is actually the same human being in July as the other months this year........

     

    Want to see something crazier?  Look at Hicks H/R splits. The guy must HATE hitting anywhere except Target Field.

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    In looking at Hicks' monthly splits this year, it's hard to believe it is actually the same human being in July as the other months this year........

    As I said earlier in the year, his new approach warranted optimism. He wasn't getting results but if the contact tool came around, it could radically change him as a player.

     

    Do I think Hicks is a .900 OPS player? LOL, no. But right now he's doing all the things well-rounded players do to succeed. Good contact with a reasonable BABIP, great discipline, solid power.

     

    Will it continue? I have no idea but he's showing the makings of a sustainable player, though I can't believe he's a .900 OPS guy going forward.

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    Want to see something crazier?  Look at Hicks H/R splits. The guy must HATE hitting anywhere except Target Field.

     

    I noticed that. It's almost like one is playing, an the other is a cardboard cut out.

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    It's premature to say Hicks is having a career year. It could be a blip on the radar, it could be a 25 year old player turning the corner.

    That's why I noted "assuming current production continued through September" in my post.

    People wrote off Hicks far too early. Yeah, he was terrible. He was also 23-24 years old and badly mismanaged. He's not some 29 year old jouneyman. He's a 25 year old that still has big upside. He may not continue being the hitter he is today but I wouldn't bet against it, either.

    Oh I agree on not giving up on him, since we already have him.  I'm saying if I was another team, I wouldn't bet on it in terms of trading for him.  If I'm the Twins I don't bet on it by counting on him.  Personally, I think he's taken a big step forward.  However, his defense is a bit shaky at times and unless he starts hitting for a ton of power, his bat is sub-par.  Will his power improve?  Coin flip?

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    Oh I agree on not giving up on him, since we already have him. I'm saying if I was another team, I wouldn't bet on it in terms of trading for him. If I'm the Twins I don't bet on it by counting on him. Personally, I think he's taken a big step forward. However, his defense is a bit shaky at times and unless he starts hitting for a ton of power, his bat is sub-par. Will his power improve? Coin flip?

    His bat isn't subpar if he continues playing good centerfield defense. I think that's where we're looking at him differently. Hicks doesn't really need power if he can hit over .260, maintain his very good discipline, and play center.
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