Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Tucker

It's a nice swing, a little like Adrian Gonzalez, tho he appears to be a little too eager to start his sprint to first, which makes it look like his sweep isn't covering the outer half. That would mean he'd flail at a lefty fading curve or a rightie change up outside. He'd have to learn to hang in there long enough to punch outside pitches the opposite way. Nothing wrong with a power pull lefty, but the first thing he'll see is everything on the outside edge of the plate.

I really like this kid but have a hard time with the corner outfield part. Is there any upside with the glove at all? Any chance he could stick in Center?

Tucker is getting drafted because he can flat out hit, plus he has a great arm, so I think that right field would be his best fit, but he has good instincts, so the team that drafts him might want to try him in center.

I think Houston will grab him so I doubt the Twins will get him.  I think Houston wants to take position players high in the draft due to a higher success rate than pitching and I would bet they will go pitching through most of the next 8 or 9 rounds.

 I think they feel they got schooled by the Cubs when they took Prior over Bryant and or even last year when they took Aiken instead of a position player.  They had success when they took Correia so I think they are going to stay away from first round pitchers for a while.  You can still find good pitchers in later rounds and if they stock pile good position players they can trade for good pitchers as well.

I think the Twins might take the opposite approach this year and go pitching early but then switch to position players rounds 3 through 10 or at least pick more evenly than last years all pitchers rounds 2 through 8.  They seem stocked with hard throwing relievers right now but could use better hitters in the lower levels IMO.

I think Houston will grab him so I doubt the Twins will get him.  I think Houston wants to take position players high in the draft due to a higher success rate than pitching and I would bet they will go pitching through most of the next 8 or 9 rounds.

 

 I think they feel they got schooled by the Cubs when they took Prior over Bryant and or even last year when they took Aiken instead of a position player.  They had success when they took Correia so I think they are going to stay away from first round pitchers for a while.  You can still find good pitchers in later rounds and if they stock pile good position players they can trade for good pitchers as well.

 

I think the Twins might take the opposite approach this year and go pitching early but then switch to position players rounds 3 through 10 or at least pick more evenly than last years all pitchers rounds 2 through 8.  They seem stocked with hard throwing relievers right now but could use better hitters in the lower levels IMO.

The Astros didn't draft Mark Prior, that was the Cubs. The Astros took Mark Appel.

The Astros didn't draft Mark Prior, that was the Cubs. The Astros took Mark Appel.

Ooops brain block.  Yes Appel.

Is this an attempt to gain leverage over Cameron, serious interest, or just due diligence? I mean, on paper Clark sounds similar to Cameron. I actually always wondered why Cameron was thought higher of, when Clark's speed and hit tool were ranked as high or higher by some.

The whole bloodline thing gives Cameron the nod plus he still has physical projectability while Clark is considered finished in that department.

Bob, agreed, but Clark also wouldn't ask for over-slot money, and I've read accounts that he has superb makeup and was the clubhouse leader on Team USA (something I could see the Twins taking into account).

 

Jeremy, do you think Clark would be willing to go $500 k to $1 million under slot?

 

I'd clearly prefer Tucker (or Tate or Jay) but if the three SS and Tucker are off the board, and the Twins are not sold on Tate and/or Jay, I'd honestly prefer Clark under-slot to Cameron over-slot. I'm probably in the minority there, but when I read about the players and their tools, I don't see why Cameron is worth the extra $1.5-$2 million that could be spent on higher upside picks at 73 and 80.

Clark is considered at Top 10-15 talent, so drafting him at #7 wouldn't be a big stretch bargain.  The slot value at #6 is ~3.9M, there has been alot of talk of him going #12 to the Marlins which is a ~3M slot so maybe get Clark at 3.5M thus saving 400K.  You can then use that 400K and give pick #73   1.2M which is the money for early second round (pick 47) which is where their second round pick would have been.  Just a thought. 

Food for thought, the Cubs took Kyle Schwarber at #4 who was considered a late first round talent (mid at best), he signed for 3.1M (which was #9 pick money), slot was 4.6M, the Cubs used the 1.5M on several young HS pitchers who were considered unsignable late in the draft.

Last year's #6 pick Alex Jackson a highly touted HS talent signed for 4.2M which was .7M over slot money. Slot was 3.5M, this is what I can see Cameron and Boras try to do.

Then there is always the draft a senior college player high for ~50-100K and using that saving for another pick as well.

Hate to say it but the signing of Ervin Santana looks worse and worse as it cost the Twins not only their second round pick but also that slot money ~1.3M.

Below is the Twins' total slot money and per pick slot money.

Twins   ($7,388,700)

No.    Round    Slot value
6     1     3,889,500
73        B     839,700
80     3     754,000
110     4    517,900
140     5     387,700
170    6     290,300
200     7     217,400
230     8    175,400
260        9    163,800
290      10     153,000