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Who Is This Guy?
Generously listed at 6'0" and 185 lbs, Bregman is a diminutive specimen who often draws comparisons to Dustin Pedroia as an undersized middle infielder who overcomes his physical disadvantages with tremendous work ethic and technique.
The New Mexico native was viewed as a likely first-round pick coming out of high school, but he broke a finger while fielding grounders in pregame warm-ups during his senior year, and the injury caused his stock to plummet. Bregman ended up being drafted by the Red Sox in the 29th round of the 2012 draft, but elected to head to college rather than signing.
Good call.
Three years later, he's a projected top five draft pick. Bregman has put up monster numbers in his three seasons at LSU, hitting .336/.410/.518 in 191 games. He has solid pop for a guy his size, but what really stands out is his ability to control the strike zone; in his collegiate career, he has drawn 87 walks while fanning only 66 times.
The biggest question is whether Bregman will stick at shortstop in the pros. Most scouts seem to believe he has a good chance to do so.
Back in April, Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs highlighted four different stand-out plays that the shortstop made in one game against Auburn. This one, in particular, seems to demonstrate that he has the athleticism and arm to play the position.
Why the Twins Will Pick Him
Shortstop is a tough spot to lock down, as the Twins are well aware. They've struggled to find a permanent answer, and while they probably felt decent about the position coming into 2015, neither Danny Santana nor Eduardo Escobar has done much this year to inspire confidence.
If you have the chance to get a guy who you think can play shortstop in the majors and hit, you've got to get him. That's why the Twins selected Nick Gordon last year, and that's why they will likely take Bregman if he's available to them. Outside of pitcher and catcher, there's no position where it's more beneficial to have strong minor-league depth.
Bregman has that gritty, "baseball rat" type reputation that the Twins tend to gravitate toward, and his production in college has been everything you'd want to see in a top pick. He was actually named first-team All-SEC shortstop over Vanderbilt's Swanson, who is likely to go first overall.
The Twins just spent the fifth pick on a shortstop last year, but I doubt that would impede them from taking another one this time around. Gordon is currently hitting just .230/.303/.279 at Cedar Rapids, and while that hardly dooms the 19-year-old's long-term outlook, it does indicate that he might need a while to develop.
Bregman's bat is more advanced and he would move ahead of Gordon in line with a chance to make a faster impact in the majors. Consider that Trea Turner, the first college shortstop taken in last year's draft (14th overall to the Padres) is already tearing up Double-A.
Why the Twins Won't Pick Him
Bregman is not without his question marks.
Some believe he might follow in Pedroia's footsteps and wind up moving to second base, which would diminish his value to the Twins quite a bit.
There's also no assurance that his bat will make the same kind of impact in pro ball, particularly in the power department. While clearly a superior prospect, Bregman does have a somewhat similar profile to Levi Michael, the smallish college middle infielder drafted by the Twins out of North Carolina in 2011's first-round. Michael's moderate power all but disappeared once he made the switch to wood bats.
With all that being said, if he does fall to them at No. 6, I find it quite unlikely that the Twins would pass up Bregman unless they don't believe in his glove. I've seen very few recent mocks that have him falling out of the top five. Jeremy has him going to Houston one pick before Minnesota.
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