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  • Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor


    Cody Christie

    Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond in 200 words or less (Some writers don’t like to stick to this limit). This will give readers an opportunity to see multiple points of view and then add their own point of view in the comments section.

    Paul Molitor is nearing the end of his fourth season as the Minnesota Twins manager. During his first season, the Twins pushed for a playoff spot into the season’s last weeks. There were over 100 losses in 2016. He won AL Manager of the year in 2017 after the Twins bounced back to earn a Wild Card spot. Now in his fourth season, the club is sitting below the .500 mark.

    This week’s roundtable discussion question is: “How would you rank Paul Molitor’s managerial performance? Why?”

    Image courtesy of Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

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    Seth Stohs

    I think he's doing fine. A manager's role in wins and losses is vastly overstated (wins or losses). As for the lineup, I'd say he does just fine. He mixes it up pretty well and isn't married to certain hitters in certain spots. Bullpen usage is where most find fault. I definitely think he has a tendency to overwork the reliable relievers which, practically, is understandable. But he will need to find a way to trust others to try to keep those top guys from wearing down. He's obviously well respected in the clubhouse, but I don't know what we can really comment on his role in there. We just don't know. A manager can't be at all places. In terms of analytics, he certainly has the people around him that will encourage it.

    This is an impossible question to answer with any certainty. Managers usually get too much credit when the team wins, and they get too much of the blame when things go bad.

    Tom Froemming

    I'd give him a D. We're not at the point where I'm demanding he be fired, but I definitely think the team would be better off with someone else running the show.

    I'm happy to see the Twins are bunting much less frequently this year, but I'm still depressed at how inefficiently the bullpen has been managed. There's also no shortage of strange lineup decisions. He seems to have no interest in providing opportunities for younger players and caters to the veterans far too often.

    I have a lot of respect for Paul Molitor. He's certainly knows more about baseball than I do, but expertise doesn't always translate to management.

    Cody Christie

    Expectations were high for the Twins heading into the 2018 season and things haven’t exactly gone as planned. Falvey and Levine seemed to have put together some strong pieces to build off of last season’s playoff run. However, no one could have predicted the lack of production from Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Brian Dozier. There’s little a manager can do if the team’s best players aren’t performing or aren’t even on the roster.

    I honestly think the front office will decided to go in a different direction this off-season. I believe Falvey and Levine are going to want to bring in someone younger that fits the mold of “being their guy.” They could give Molitor one more chance to see what he does with the club next year but Minnesota won’t have the likes of Sano and Buxton around forever.

    If the time isn’t now, when will it be? Overall grade, C- but he moves to a C+ with extra credit for AL Manager of the Year.

    Ted Schwerzler

    Molitor was put in a difficult position, but he also hasn’t done himself any favors. This front office likely would’ve hired their own guy had they not been mandated to do otherwise. He saved his skin by winning Manager of the Year in 2017, but he’s continued many of his poor habits this season. Bullpen usage has been questionable, in-game strategy leaves something to be desired, and lineup configuration has been head-scratching at times.

    Nothing he’s done has been egregious, but the sum of all parts seems average at best. It’s hard to gauge his relatability to this roster without being in the clubhouse, but I tend to believe there’re better options in that department. On a grading scale, I’d tag him with a C-. Regardless of his three-year deal, which did seem odd, I don’t know that Falvey and Levine won’t move on this winter anyways.

    Steve Lein

    I'll begin this one by pointing out the cliche that managers get too much of the credit for winning and too much of the blame for losing. The players hit, pitch, and play defense while managers really can only make personnel decisions and have situational influence. But that is where good managers can make their mark.

    As far as personnel decisions go, Molitor doesn’t get a passing grade from me. Overuse of bullpen pitchers has quite clearly affected their performance. Platoon advantages have not been utilized enough. At times I've thought it was like he's spinning a roulette wheel with players names on it to figure out the lineup order he'd throw out. The up and down records of his his teams during his tenure also tells me he may not have that special sauce that extracts the best out of most of his players consistently. That's one idea I do think the great managers accomplish.

    When it comes to the situational side during a game, outside of his use of the bullpen, I do think Molitor does well. He's embraced shifting on defense, I don't think they've done much bunting, and based on his Hall Of Fame playing career I know he’s seen it all. I trust him to make the correct decisions in that sense.

    Overall, I’d rank him around the middle of MLB managers, but his time is running out.

    SD Buhr

    This is really a tough question.

    Obviously, you can’t say Paul Molitor has been an incredibly good manager at this point, based on the results on the field, even though last season’s second half was certainly encouraging.

    But I’m not really sure you can lay the lack of success this season purely at his feet, either. While most of us were looking for a strong year as they prepared for spring training, I think if you’d have told us then that Polanco and Santana would each miss the entire first half of the season and Sano and Buxton would spend so little time on the active roster, our expectations might have been more muted. I’m not sure you can blame the manager for not winning more games when those major pieces were absent.

    Personally, I’d probably give him an overall grade of C+ and, based on that, I won’t really have any objection whether the front office decides to keep him around or bring in someone new.

    If you missed any of the most recent roundtable discussions, here are the links:

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    This back and forth started with Riverbrian quoting me when I suggested that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman, and that having Grossman on the roster has limited Molitor's options. I don't think it's reasonable to even get a vibe that I was okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman. The words I typed would indicate almost the opposite of that.

    I take full responsibility.

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    This back and forth started with Riverbrian quoting me when I suggested that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman, and that having Grossman on the roster has limited Molitor's options. I don't think it's reasonable to even get a vibe that I was okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman. The words I typed would indicate almost the opposite of that.

    I interpreted your comment that I responded to initially to mean that even if Molitor advocated for Grossman and then the FO didn't go out and find an upgrade anyway that it's the FO's fault and he had no culpability. That's what I was responding to, not that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. But based on your comment, I respectfully disagree that it's not reasonable to believe that you were okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman since you appeared to heap all of the blame onto the FO. Your response to my initial comment would seem to back that up with the Clarence Darrow reference.

     

    You may not have intended to infer that, but that's how I interpreted it. Even rereading our exchange, I still don't believe it to be unreasonable considering your words. I really don't have any interest in going down the "I meant this or that" rabbit hole.

     

    Fact of the matter is that I believe that Molitor essentially "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. If Molitor wouldn't play him, he'd be gone. Does the FO have culpability in that decision, yes they do. Neither party is completely without blame in any roster decisions, including this particular one. But I was not responding to anything regarding anyone being "stuck" with Grossman or any particular player, simply that Molitor wouldn't have any culpability in decision gone bad regarding a player that he advocated for. Nothing more, nothing less.

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    I interpreted your comment that I responded to initially to mean that even if Molitor advocated for Grossman and then the FO didn't go out and find an upgrade anyway that it's the FO's fault and he had no culpability. That's what I was responding to, not that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. But based on your comment, I respectfully disagree that it's not reasonable to believe that you were okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman since you appeared to heap all of the blame onto the FO. Your response to my initial comment would seem to back that up with the Clarence Darrow reference.

    You may not have intended to infer that, but that's how I interpreted it. Even rereading our exchange, I still don't believe it to be unreasonable considering your words. I really don't have any interest in going down the "I meant this or that" rabbit hole.

    Fact of the matter is that I believe that Molitor essentially "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. If Molitor wouldn't play him, he'd be gone. Does the FO have culpability in that decision, yes they do. Neither party is completely without blame in any roster decisions, including this particular one. But I was not responding to anything regarding anyone being "stuck" with Grossman or any particular player, simply that Molitor wouldn't have any culpability in decision gone bad regarding a player that he advocated for. Nothing more, nothing less.

    FIrst of all, "even if" is very clear. Second, my position in that post, and every other, is that the FO is responsible regardless of what the manager may have recommended. It's their job. There's a reason they employ analytics people, and it's not so that they can make decisions based on what the manager tells them. The manager cannot be expected to be the analytics department and the scouting department. It was their responsibility to determine whether to stick with Grossman or look for an alternative. Personally, I think they found an alternative in Cave, but just not before the season started with Buxton as a fixture in center. If Buxton sticks at center next year, we have Cave and/or Austin and likely no Grossman.

     

    You may believe that Molitor is responsible for these decisions. I don't know, you may be right. But I'm saying again, even if that's the case, I blame the FO. That's their job, their responsibility, and there's no sharing blame here.

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    What exactly does the manager do to "develop young talent?"  and yes this is an honest question.  The Twins employ dozens of employees.  Is it on Molitor's shoulders that Kepler still struggles against left handed pitching?  Or that Dozier got pull happy again this year?  Or that Berrios lost steam once August rolled around?  Or that Eddie will make an occasional base running blunder?  

     

    I am not the biggest Molitor fan out there, but he has a whole staff.  There's a lot of questions about the Polanco sac bunt earlier in this thread.  Do we know this came from Molitor?  If Polanco did it on his own, are we still going to blame the manager because the player has the option to have a green light like that?  Do we blame the manager if the 3rd base coach gave the call?  

     

    IMO managers will always get more credit when a team plays great and get more blame when a team is playing badly.  I don't think I would give Molly more than a B- to a B, but I think a lot more blame gets thrown on his shoulders around here than it should.

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    I don't want to start a new thread and I don't know what existing thread to post this in... However, I want to make this point. 

     

    David Bote hit another home run for the Chicago Cubs yesterday. 

     

    Why do I want to point this out? 

     

    David Bote was an 18th round draft pick that never appeared on any of those top prospect lists. He was called up to the Cubs about a month ago and he has a total of 109 MLB AB's. Nobody knew who he was. 

     

    The Cubs are currently in one of the most contested playoff races that we have seen in quite some time. 

     

    The Cubs currently have Javier Baez, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ and Tommy La Stella as more experienced and established options. 

     

    Why do I point this out? 

     

    Joe Maddon is playing David Bote!

     

    Does anyone believe that Paul Molitor would have played David Bote with Zobrist and Happ sitting on the bench, in playoff contention, in late August. 

     

    I don't. 

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    Gotcha. We're at the point in this thread where Molitor is screwing up in hypothetical scenarios.

    I’m sure you are aware that this Is a larger point of playing time allocation even as you point out the hypothetical nature of the post.

     

    If every baseball team is doing the same thing then I suppose that there is no point. But they are not and I’ll keep pointing them out as a way to compare and contrast until the amount of playing time given to Morrison, Wilson, Buxton and Sano becomes as ridiculous to others.

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    Gotcha. We're at the point in this thread where Molitor is screwing up in hypothetical scenarios.

    To be fair, much of the criticism and praise for Molitor is based on speculation. It's only a logical progression to start posing hypothetical scenarios where he would do well or not do well.

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    Keep us posted. Until there's something with more substance than 'Molitor's lineup construction/bullpen management is terrible' or 'David Bote played a few games for the Cubs! I bet Molitor wouldn't do that!' I'll keep pushing back as well.

     

    What kind of substance are you looking for? 

     

    Lineup Construction is out

    Bullpen Management is out

    David Bote played a few games for the Cubs is out

     

    What will you allow? Define substance because we are all flying blind here. 

     

    I'm trying to be constructive. I'm not even calling for his head. I'm trying to point out another way that other teams are doing it. You want to push back against that... Ok... Go ahead...  I guess, I deserve it. 

     

    Go ahead and carve me up at your pleasure. 

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    Happ is batting .172 with a .534 OPS over the last 28 days. Yeah, pretty sure Molitor would bench him too.

     

    Eddie Rosario is batting .210 with a .576 OPS over the last 28 days. 

     

    Are you sure? 

     

    BTW... Maddon hasn't benched Happ at this point but Molitor will? 

     

    Also... Zobrist is batting .356 with a 1.026 OPS over the last 28 days. I did mention both Zobrist and Happ. 

     

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    Eddie Rosario is batting .210 with a .576 OPS over the last 28 days. 

     

    Are you sure? 

     

    BTW... Maddon hasn't benched Happ at this point but Molitor will? 

     

    Also... Zobrist is batting .356 with a 1.026 OPS over the last 28 days. I did mention both Zobrist and Happ. 

    Well, the Cubs depth of true quality players is ridiculous. Maddon has been given options.

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    Well, the Cubs depth of true quality players is ridiculous. Maddon has been given options.

     

    I won't deny that... but that is ultimately my point. 

     

    With all the depth of options that the Cubs undeniably have and the depth of options that the Twins absolutely don't have. 

     

    It's the Cubs... (in the middle of an intense National League playoff race) who are willing to play a "David Bote" type player.  

     

     

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    I don't want to start a new thread and I don't know what existing thread to post this in... However, I want to make this point. 

     

    David Bote hit another home run for the Chicago Cubs yesterday. 

     

    Why do I want to point this out? 

     

    David Bote was an 18th round draft pick that never appeared on any of those top prospect lists. He was called up to the Cubs about a month ago and he has a total of 109 MLB AB's. Nobody knew who he was. 

     

    The Cubs are currently in one of the most contested playoff races that we have seen in quite some time. 

     

    The Cubs currently have Javier Baez, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ and Tommy La Stella as more experienced and established options. 

     

    Why do I point this out? 

     

    Joe Maddon is playing David Bote!

     

    Does anyone believe that Paul Molitor would have played David Bote with Zobrist and Happ sitting on the bench, in playoff contention, in late August. 

     

    I don't. 

    Reputations and repeated phrases becoming truths. Molitor does not play rookies and prefers veterans is one of them. In a poor hitting offense , Molitor would play  Bote. . The guy hits.  An OPS over .800  Why he doesn't show up on prospect lists is that that hand to eye thing doesn't work so well with leather instead of wood.  Those players do not get  ranked as high unless they are huge HR hitters. What player in the Twins organization that hits like that  has and sat? You hit like Bote, you play. The thing is, other than Sano, what rookie in a Twin's uniform has hit like that?

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    Reputations and repeated phrases becoming truths. Molitor does not play rookies and prefers veterans is one of them. In a poor hitting offense , Molitor would play  Bote. . The guy hits.  An OPS over .800  Why he doesn't show up on prospect lists is that that hand to eye thing doesn't work so well with leather instead of wood.  Those players do not get  ranked as high unless they are huge HR hitters. What player in the Twins organization that hits like that  has and sat? You hit like Bote, you play. The thing is, other than Sano, what rookie in a Twin's uniform has hit like that?

     

    I have to get to work... so I'll respond to this later after I do some research, because first, I want to know many Rookies have gotten at least 100 AB's? 

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    What kind of substance are you looking for?

     

    Lineup Construction is out

    Bullpen Management is out

    David Bote played a few games for the Cubs is out

     

    What will you allow? Define substance because we are all flying blind here.

     

    I'm trying to be constructive. I'm not even calling for his head. I'm trying to point out another way that other teams are doing it. You want to push back against that... Ok... Go ahead... I guess, I deserve it.

     

    Go ahead and carve me up at your pleasure.

    Data compared to the average manager is ideal. Does Molitor manage his bullpen better or worse than the average manager? Does he have unorthodox lineups more often than the average manager?

     

    These are the questions I've been asking throughout this thread.

     

    Statements like 'Molitor is terrible managing a bullpen and lineup' don't have a lot of substance behind it when it's not compared to other examples.

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    Eddie Rosario is batting .210 with a .576 OPS over the last 28 days.

     

    Are you sure?

     

    BTW... Maddon hasn't benched Happ at this point but Molitor will?

     

    Also... Zobrist is batting .356 with a 1.026 OPS over the last 28 days. I did mention both Zobrist and Happ.

    Is the only OF option left on the 40 man Buxton? I suppose we could bench Rosario for Astudillo. Sounds like a plan to me.

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    Data compared to the average manager is ideal. Does Molitor manage his bullpen better or worse than the average manager? Does he have unorthodox lineups more often than the average manager?

     

    These are the questions I've been asking throughout this thread.

     

    Statements like 'Molitor is terrible managing a bullpen and lineup' don't have a lot of substance behind it when it's not compared to other examples.

    Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing.

     

    I’m providing examples.

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    Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing.

     

    I’m providing examples.

    Keep doing the research and you may come to the conclusion that all managers handle their bullpens and weird lineups in a similar fashion.

     

    May I suggest your next case study? Arizona Diamondbacks.

     

    Lovullo should be fired for over using Bradley, Chaffin, and Hirano. All have 62(!) appearances which ranks top 10 in the league. He also started Jake Lamb for a long time and was having a bad season!

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    Is the only OF option left on the 40 man Buxton? I suppose we could bench Rosario for Astudillo. Sounds like a plan to me.

    Bringing up Astundillo isn’t taking me seriously. That’s making your point by being unnecessarily extreme and gives the impression that I’m saying bench Rosario for Astundillo.

     

    Happ hasn’t been benched by the Cubs and you said that you are pretty sure Molitor would bench him.

     

    Is any part of this post not true?

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    Keep doing the research and you may come to the conclusion that all managers handle their bullpens and weird lineups in a similar fashion.

     

    May I suggest your next case study? Arizona Diamondbacks.

     

    Lovullo should be fired for over using Bradley, Chaffin, and Hirano. All have 62(!) appearances which ranks top 10 in the league. He also started Jake Lamb for a long time and was having a bad season!

    Have I said that Reed and Pressly and Hildenberger have been over used.

     

    I’ve said that Molitor will keep giving them the ball when they are struggling but I haven’t said they were overused.

     

    I have looked at the D Backs pen and the Twins Pen usage. My theory is that the games used numbers are high in both cases because they were healthy.

     

    Don’t attach that discussion to me. That is others... it’s not mine.

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    I have to get to work... so I'll respond to this later after I do some research, because first, I want to know many Rookies have gotten at least 100 AB's? 

    2015 Eddie Rosario 474 Byron Buxton 138,  Sano 335 

    2016 Max Kepler 447 Park with an ^ 244,  Polanco 270,  Centeno 192

    2017 Granite 107

    2018 Cave,  LaMarre,

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    2015 Eddie Rosario 474 Byron Buxton 138,  Sano 335 

    2016 Max Kepler 447 Park with an ^ 244,  Polanco 270,  Centeno 192

    2017 Granite 107

    2018 Cave,  LaMarre,

     

    Thanks for the list. :)

     

    I was going to do it.  :)

     

    For a David Bote comp, we should probably include AAAA guys because Bote is an out of nowhere story, You and I both typed rookie which is kind of limiting and rookie wasn't really the reason I brought him up, it was Bote being nobody.   

     

    I'd say Centeno, Granite and LaMarre (maybe Cave) would be the closest comps from your list but the list could get bigger still if we listed the "who are these guys" guys which (in my opinion) are closer Bote comps. Granite was a 27th ranked prospect, so he was ranked but I think Granite is a "who are these guys" guy. 

     

    In 2015: Buxton and Sano were #1 and #2 in the system. Rosario was top ten. I don't feel they are good comps, but I will say this, just to show that I'm capable of objectivity. As I'm started looking through 2015. Molitor and the front office did a pretty good job of adjusting on the fly. They opened 2015 with Santana at SS, Arcia in LF, Schaefer in CF and Vargas at DH. However, a point could still be made that the guys that Molitor/Front office were willing to adjust, were all under 25.  

     

    I apologize... I didn't have the time to post as comprehensibly as I'd like and I probably won't tonight or tomorrow but I will. 

     

     

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    Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing.

    I’m providing examples.

    Okay, here's just one example in the comparison of Maddon v. Molitor:

     

    1. At the end of the 2017 season, Molitor would not have used Lackey as a relief pitcher in the last game of the regular season, which the Cubs lost because of Lackey.

     

    2. Then, in the first game of the playoffs, Molitor would not have gone to Lackey at the end of the game for 1.2 innings and 27 pitches.

     

    3. Then, even if he had done either or both of the previous two things (that he wouldn't have done), he definitely would not have put Lackey in at the end of Game 2 to blow the game for the Cubs.

     

    Therefore, Molitor is better at managing his bullpen than Maddon.

     

    P.S. There are other great examples of Maddon being terrible at managing his bullpen from the 2016 WS.

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    Bringing up Astundillo isn’t taking me seriously. That’s making your point by being unnecessarily extreme and gives the impression that I’m saying bench Rosario for Astundillo.

    Happ hasn’t been benched by the Cubs and you said that you are pretty sure Molitor would bench him.

    Is any part of this post not true?

     

    I'd argue using one player's usage over a small time frame to attack another manager is where the unnecessary extremes happened.  

     

    We wouldn't declare Tyler Austin better than Eddie Rosario based on the last ten days.  And therein lies the real problem with this discussion - we simply don't have good metrics, with strong sample sizes, from which to draw conclusions.  Instead we draw sweeping conclusions like "Well Molitor would never do this one thing that some one other guy did one or two times!" and think the argument has merit.

     

    It doesn't.  Most of our observable criteria for managers are impossible to put into context, so we are driven almost entirely by perception rather than fact.  And that observable criteria is but a shred of the manager's job, the rest of which we don't see at all.  I get why we want to do it and feel compelled to do it....but we should probably take some time to consider the limits of our ability to do so.

    Edited by TheLeviathan
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    At the end of the day 227-259 (as of today) is what Molitor will be evaluated by and I think it gets him fired.

     

    Expectations were higher. Perhaps they should not have been, but that is reality.

     

    I’m sure when I bring up W/L record, someone will bring up Tom Kelly’s. Let’s remember to add on Kelly’s 16-8 postseason record and two World Series rings. Molitor is 0-1 in the playoffs.

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