Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #4 Marco Raya, RHP

Very high for a 4th round pick with 65 professional innings, no? Or hopefully not too high, just too early.

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I didn't really like the 2020 draft all that much, though I saw/see some upside with the 3 position players. (Rosario might be the best). But I just loved the Raya pick the minute I read about him. I can't recall all of the details, but he seemed like a confident, athletic, kid who had performed well in HS and at all his various tournaments and camps. The stuff and potential stuff seemed to be there, despite a medium stature. I was really surprised he lasted until the 4th round as I read about him. I can only assume his size was what kept him from being selected higher.

 

 

I hated the Saboto pick.  A 1 tool guy in the first round makes no sense.  Granted it was very late 1st but the Dodgers identified a high upside pitcher 2 picks later when they took Bobby Miller. He is now their #2 rated prospect and he will be at the ML level soon.  He has a 70 grade FB / 60 Slider / 60 Changeup / 55 Curve.  Taking him instead of Saboto would have made that draft a huge success.

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I didn't really like the 2020 draft all that much, though I saw/see some upside with the 3 position players. (Rosario might be the best). But I just loved the Raya pick the minute I read about him. I can't recall all of the details, but he seemed like a confident, athletic, kid who had performed well in HS and at all his various tournaments and camps. The stuff and potential stuff seemed to be there, despite a medium stature. I was really surprised he lasted until the 4th round as I read about him. I can only assume his size was what kept him from being selected higher.

I was very disappointed when he didn't pitch in 2021, except on the side and in the development camp following the season. I think his early results are pretty amazing really. Skips rookie ball and goes straight to A where he puts up some really great numbers. And I'm not worried about the number of IP per start. Absolutely nothing wrong with nursing him a bit in his debut as a 19yo at A ball not letting it fly in game conditions for about a year and a half. 

As for Law, or anyone else, lamenting lack of a quality change for a yet to be 20yo, I can only say PLEASE. A change...whatever version is thrown...is a "feel" pitch that takes time to master, or at least be decent at. But with good velocity...potentially more as he fills out...and 3 breaking pitches that all look at least potentially solid if not good, I'm not worried about the quality of his change at this point.

If his 3 breaking balls are as potentially good as various reports seem to state, I don't think that I would eliminate any of them just yet. Let's see how they look at least a year from now. Obviously, keep working on a form of a change. But the most important thing for him, as well as Prielipp, is getting a good 100 IP in 2023. I'd start him at Ft Myers and then move to CR a month or so in for a new challenge.

I like Festa and Jaylen Nowlin a lot and can't wait to see what they do this season. There's 4-5 guys drafted last year I find very intriguing, who have barely seen a pro mound that I'm anxious to watch that all have a "something" about them when drafted. But isn't it fun to think about Raya and Prielipp both in the top 5 this time next year?

NOTE: Unrelated, but since it was mentioned, I do agree with Law in cutting Balazovic slack due to his injury, recovery, the lockout, etc. I also offer a Mulligan for him in 2022.

 

Right. It's also important to note that you don't need to throw a change-up at all to be a successful MLB starter. If you have three pitches that are all above average, you don't need to throw a change-up just to throw a change. Fastball-slider/curveball-cutter is a pitch mix that will do just fine in keeping hitters off balance. You're still changing speeds within that, it's just different. I'd rather have someone throwing Raya's mix with command and comfort than lobbing in meatball changeups and hoping the hitter gets fooled.

20 hours ago, Hoze said:

I wonder about Law's confidence level on Raya not having a plus 3rd pitch.. 

Fwiw @Data_prospects (Twitter) had a 8/23 report on Raya and posted the following on his secondaries:

Slider:
"His slider is filthy also. The pitch is thrown with a very workable velocity in the mid 80s (average velocity of 83.7 mph). The movement here is lights out, getting 3.5” of lift on the pitch along with 13” of sweep. Despite throwing the pitch in the zone 56.3%, he is still getting strikes almost 80% of the time he throws the slider. He is also able to limit hard contact significantly better with the slider than with the fastball. I would give the pitch a 60 grade"

Cutter:
"He has also thrown a Cutter in the high 80s/low 90s, which has been outstanding for him so far. The pitch gets 8.5” of lift and 8.3” of glove side movement on average and has drawn a Whiff% of 48% and has held hitters to a xwOBA of .127 on the offering. Going to go out on a limb and calling it a 70. If you don’t like it, sue me."

Curve:
"While the slider might be filthy, I don’t think it’s his best breaking ball. Though he has only thrown it 80 times, his curveball is one of the best in the minors. Velocity is a non-issue again, sitting at 80mph and running up to 84mph. The movement profile is gaudy, posting an astounding 56.9” of depth on average and 10” of sweep. According to statcast, there are just 3 qualified major league pitchers who throw curveballs with >55” of depth and >80mph on average. The list is: Carlos Rodon, Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove. Raya has held hitters to an impressive .221 xwOBA on the pitch and has posted a Whiff% of 34%, I’ll play it cool and 60 it for now but I’d bump it to a 70 if he throws it more."

Nice find Hoze, and welcome.

Who is Keith Law anyway? My concern is that the FO will trade another good looking pitching prospect for back of the rotation ML starters, which we have enough of already. Also I wonder if the manager who let Raya pitch six innings was fired, despite only 68 pitches, since computer algorithms drive all decisions for this FO and manager. Intuition not required.

Kudos to all commenters.... this is my favorite string to read so far this year. Thanks to all!