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  • Twins Daily 2022 Draft Coverage, February 15


    Jeremy Nygaard

    With all the uncertainty surrounding the game of baseball, we can still count on high school and college seasons going on as scheduled*. And while a continued (and eventually resolved) lockout would definitely impact the 2022 MLB Draft, there are still many draft-related topics to be tackled between now and whenever that is.

    *Considering that weather is always a thing and COVID is, you know, still a thing. 

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    We don’t know when or where yet. We also don’t know how significantly all of the draft rules will change as the new CBA is negotiated. Things like forfeiting draft picks for signing free agents seem to be on the chopping block. Will small market teams still get compensatory picks? Will there be a lottery (or something crazier like Jayson Stark’s idea, subscription required) to determine draft order? Will we ever get to a point where teams are able to trade draft picks (besides the “competitive balance” picks)?

    All of these questions are going to be answered later, and we’ll have that coverage right here. 

    In this first article leading into draft season, there will be a lot of links to other places, where you’re welcome to go and start forming your own opinions on players. (I'll get into specific players a bit next week.)

    Baseball America (led by Carlos Collazo) pushed out their first mock draft (subscription required) late last week. The two-headed monster of Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com have started their season with their Top 100 Prospects and Callis put out an early Top 10 picks mock draft last month and the two of them going back-and-forth through 20 picks before the draft order was settled in September.  Neither ESPN (led by Kiley McDaniel) nor The Athletic (led by Keith Law) have dropped their first mocks. These sites and Fangraphs are widely considered the industry leaders in draft coverage.

    But there are other mock drafts out there too: Prospects Live released a mock draft early last month. My MLB Draft updated theirs on January 18th. Just Baseball put out their first mock draft last week. You can find many others as well.

    If you click through those mock drafts or look through prospect ratings, you’ll quickly see how they are top-heavy with hitters. But if you’ve clicked through mock drafts in previous years, you’ll also recall how opinions on players quickly evolve. 

    In fact, Baseball America posted all of their mock drafts side-by-side after the 2021 draft. Their original #1 pick? Drafted tenth and didn’t sign. The college catcher that went first overall? They had him mocked at #21, but had a different college catcher mocked at #2 (who ended up going 67th.) 

    All of that is just a long way to say: It’s super early… but that doesn’t make it less fun. And there will be plenty of Twins-focused coverage right here.

    ~~~~~
    On a more personal note, I’m back!

    For draft coverage anyway. 

    If you’ve been around Twins Daily for a while, you may remember me from its early years and covering the draft. (I’m pretty sure it was 2012-2017, but things all tend to run together.) I had to stop, though, when I took a job coaching basketball that required me to shift my focus. I’ve since stopped doing that, too, to spend more time watching my kids grow up and love to play sports as much as their dad did.

    I’ve always been enamored by drafts, in any sport. Did you know that WWE has an annual draft? I didn’t either… but when I learned they did, I started watching it. The NFL Draft is one of my favorite days of the year. Did I skip prom in high school to watch the NFL Draft? I might have.

    The MLB Draft, though, is so different. Very few names are household names or as the scouts say, “famous.” In no other draft does a team select someone that they don’t, won’t, or can’t sign. In no other drafts are players forced to make such a tough decision (go pro or not) after being drafted? 

    In the middle of my original run covering the draft for Twins Daily, there was a situation where a player was drafted and agreed to sign before a physical turned up some new information. The Twins - within their rights - wanted the player to sign for less. With this potentially freed up money, they turned their sites on two other players who weren’t going to sign but could be convinced with additional bonus money. 

    In the end, none of them ended up signing with the Twins (though they all ended up hearing their name called again). But at the time, trying to provide breaking draft coverage - and ending up in the crosshairs of a baseball agency - was more taxing than I wanted it to be.

    So it’s not going to be quite like that anymore. I’ll let Callis, Mayo, or whoever break the signing details. And I’ll keep readers updated here on those things. 

    My plan is to post something weekly, probably on Tuesdays, covering the things that happened since the last update. Some posts figure to be longer than others. Some, especially those in February and March, might be much shorter (or possibly skipped if nothing noteworthy happened). And then we'll ramp it up as the draft gets closer. Heck, maybe even Aaron and John will let me back into the KFAN booth again to talk about the draft.

    Anyway, I’m glad you’ve come along for the ride. I hope you enjoy it.

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    I have already been looking at the players early but as you said things will change once the high school and college seasons end.  Still, looking at where things stand right now there seems to be about 6 position players that could go 1-6.  I think it is going to be hard to move off of Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Jacob Berry, Brooks Lee and Jace Jung.  Except for Green they all appear to have 60 hit tools or better and Jones, Green and Lee all play up the middle positions. Depending on how you feel about Chase Delauter it could be 7 hitters in a row.  Of course the Twins pick 8th

    The Twins could be in a position to pick the best pitcher on the board when the time comes and yet I have this feeling they would like to go with a position player in that spot instead. I have to believe there will be another prep or college bat that rises up boards so the Twins might still have a chance to grab an elite bat but if they don't I would like to see them select one of three lefties in Jackson Ferris who is 6'4" with projection remaining.  Brandon Berriera who has three plus pitches and good command so a strike thrower that the Twins seem to like develop or maybe take a chance on the unhittable Slider of Conner Prielipp who will be returning from TJ surgery.  

    It could really be a good spot to get a good pitching prospect but the risk is always high with those picks and the Twins seem to like to develop later round arms rather than taking them early.  Right now though that is way the the draft looks like it will fall unless maybe the Cubs go pitching at number 6 but I have to believe given the talented bats left they won't go with an arm but it wouldn't hurt Chicago to get started on building out a future rotation as their farm doesn't have much for arms at all.

    IMO ideally I hope an up middle player with elite upside will fall to them but given the way things stack up that looks unlikely.  I will be watching to see what you come up with Jeremy and I hope this ends up a monster good draft for the Twins as they need it.

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    Thanks Jeremy! I love the draft too, and I'm looking forward to your series!

    According to most projections, it looks like there are ~3 college catchers with a first round grade. I'm hoping that at least one of them improve their stock to be worthy of a top 10 pick. Outside of Jeffers/Rortvedt, I don't see any young, big-league caliber catchers in the system. To me, that's the weakest aspect of our minor league system right now.

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