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  • Twins Daily’s Instant Draft Reaction: WTF?


    John  Bonnes

    We set a record for page views yesterday, approaching 100,000. A lot of that was on our Day 1 Draft Day thread. And starting at about the 500th comment or so, the reaction could be summarized in three letters: W. T. F.

    To the community’s credit, that was not the thought process immediately, when the Twins surprised everyone by picking prep shortstop Royce Lewis first overall. That’s because a good chunk of the wonks on this site understand there is a strategy that can accompany just such a pick, one which I explained in a series of tweets, starting with this one, yesterday afternoon. You can click through, but I’ll give the gist…

    Twins Video

    Saving money on the first overall pick is a common strategy for MLB teams and has been used with much success. Drafting Lewis, who was considered along with Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay, to be a half step below Hunter Greene in terms of talent, could essentially give the Twins extra quality in some of their following picks. Again, click on the tweet for the details.

    So Lewis was the surprise pick at #1, but we heard reports that he was the pick because he gave the Twins a discount which they could use to essentially accumulate higher picks later in the draft. That’s a solid strategy; additional quality picks helps both with risk mitigation and with higher upside. And it costs nothing but a little negotiation.

    Plus, selfishly, it makes the rest of the night that much more fun. The Twins had two more picks last night, the 35th and 37th picks and lots of leftover money. Signing Lewis “below slot” gave them the opportunity to sign some higher ranked players who seemed to “tumble” down the draft board, not because there was anything wrong with them, but because they wanted more money than teams above the Twins in the draft (but below them in leftover money) could offer.

    What’s more, the most obvious of those players was a high school pitcher from Burnsville. Sam Carlson was projected to be a mid-first round pick. He’s a pitcher. He’s a hometown boy. And the fact that he was available at pick 35 made it seem like the Twins and he had conspired to allow him to fall into the Twins lap.

    Except that isn’t what happened.

    The Twins picked a college outfielder, Brent Rooker at 35. They picked a prep (Canadian) pitcher, Landon Leach, at 37. Both are legitimate top 100 prospects, but neither was a top 20 or even perceived to be a top 30 pick. In fact, one could reasonably project that both of them could also sign “under slot.” Carlson ended up going 55th to the Mariners who don’t seem to have the money to sign him.

    So WTF happened?

    We won’t find out all the signing amounts for several days, but I’ll float some scenarios, and you can add your own in the comment below.

    1. Lewis didn’t sign for less than slot. I think that it’s already been reported that he did, but these moves make a lot more sense if Lewis' agent, Scott Boras, didn’t let Lewis sign for less than slot, or something happened that the Twins weren’t sure they had that extra money.

    2. The Twins got sniped before #35. Whoever the Twins targeted with the 35th pick, was taken before they got their pick. Which would mean that either the player’s agent was incompetent, or the Twins didn’t get word to the player to make sure teams knew they needed to pass, or another team called their bluff or figured out a way to get their own leftover money.

    3. A Carlson deal fell through. But they why do the Mariners take him at #55? They have to know they can sign him if they're going to use their second round pick on him, right?

    4. The Twins have no intention of using their whole $14M draft budget. They saved money to save money. This just seems crazy. It would be a complete betrayal.

    5. They're going to use the money on Day 2. OK, but now the top picks are already done. (Late add: track the Day 2 moves on Twins Daily's Day 2 Thread!)

    We are all left scratching our heads. Perhaps we'll get more information that clarifies what we witnessed. Or maybe this is the mess it appears to be.

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    Dude, if you pay him $3 million, and you pay Leach $1 million, IT DOES NOT MATTER WHERE THEY WERE DRAFTED, 3+1 = 4. 

     

    Why do you care about slot savings, you literally are arriving at the EXACT Same number.  You need $4 million to sign these 2 guys (per my example earlier).  

     

    Math really is not this hard.... 

     

    Dude,  your assumption is that you can sign Leach for $1 million versus the slot value for the first pick of the 2nd round, #37 overall, of $1.8 million.  If Leach signs for closer to the slot value for pick #37 then the TOTAL amount of signing is going to be much higher.  Lets say he signs for $1.4 million, midway between your $1 million and the slot value for #37.

     

    That means it takes $4.4 million to sign the two players and you need to get those dollars by squeezing your picks drafted in rounds 4 - 10, and beyond.  

     

    And, as I have stated, you can't have it both ways and say that they significantly reached for Leach to save money at the top of round 2 and he will sign for slightly higher than 3rd round money.  

     

    So, then, why not just take Enlow at #37.  Sign him for $3 million using the $1.8 million slot and $1.2 million savings from drafting Lewis.  You take the risk of losing Leach, but why risk losing Enlow, the guy you will sign for way more money?  

     

    THe optimistic thing is maybe they can get Enlow for less than $3 million.  After the 2nd round very few players signed for anywhere close to that in 2016, but most of the HS guys taken that signed above slot were drafted before round 3.  Looks like some of the picks after round 4 are money saving picks, but we will see.

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    Dude,  your assumption is that you can sign Leach for $1 million versus the slot value for the first pick of the 2nd round, #37 overall, of $1.8 million.  If Leach signs for closer to the slot value for pick #37 then the TOTAL amount of signing is going to be much higher.  Lets say he signs for $1.4 million, midway between your $1 million and the slot value for #37.

     

     

     

    No, I am not "assuming" anything, I am telling you how math works.  The Twins have an overall budget ($14 million), they drafted to follow that budget.  

     

    You keep saying Enlow at 37 is a better deal than Enlow at 76 because the Cap is higher at 37.  That is not how this works, the cap they need to worry about is for the 1st 10 rounds ($14 million), not on a pick by pick basis.  

     

    Leach "agreed" to a number before his name was called at 37, Enlow "agreed" to a number at 76 before his name was called.  It's how the draft works now

     

    I used $1 and $3 as examples to show you how math works, I don't know what either player has agreed to.  

     

    They won't get Enlow for less at 76, they will pay him what his advisor likely told teams it would take to sign him out of his college commitment.  That # was the same whether he was pick 40 in the draft or pick 100. 

    Edited by alarp33
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    Huh? I think you're talking in circles so much I don't even know what your original point was.  Why would the Twins say BS? They've already agreed to a deal with Enlow, guaranteed

    One thing to consider about picking Leach first is that it gave the Twins an entire night to negotiate with Enlow, knowing no one could steal him away. Once the draft ended last night, the Twins were in the driver's seat in negotiating a hard price on the guy. If he wouldn't bite, then you move on to other players.

     

    There shouldn't have been any guesswork this morning. They either had a price negotiated with Enlow or they didn't.

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    No, I am not "assuming" anything, I am telling you how math works.  The Twins have an overall budget ($14 million), they drafted to follow that budget.  

     

    You keep saying Enlow at 37 is a better deal than Enlow at 76 because the Cap is higher at 37.  That is not how this works, the cap they need to worry about is for the 1st 10 rounds ($14 million), not on a pick by pick basis.  

     

    Leach "agreed" to a number before his name was called at 37, Enlow "agreed" to a number at 76 before his name was called.  It's how the draft works now

     

    I used $1 and $3 as examples to show you how math works, I don't know what either player has agreed to.  

     

    They won't get Enlow for less at 76, they will pay him what his advisor likely told teams it would take to sign him out of his college commitment.  That # was the same whether he was pick 40 in the draft or pick 100. 

     

    Again, you are just making assumptions to fit your narrative, including that the contract numbers are agreed to.  I am not saying they are not and the contract leverage players have is more limited, not every draft pick signs in the top rounds.

     

    And, the other issue were you are wrong is it does matter where you draft them because you are correct, you get a total draft pool.  But, as I have pointed out, if you need $3 million to sign Enlow, if you draft him at #37 it only requires you to save $1.2 million in other picks.  If you draft him at #76, it requires you to save $2.5 million on other picks.  

     

    If you don't think that makes a real difference in your draft, then you simply do not understand what is going on.  

     

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    One thing to consider about picking Leach first is that it gave the Twins an entire night to negotiate with Enlow, knowing no one could steal him away. Once the draft ended last night, the Twins were in the driver's seat in negotiating a hard price on the guy. If he wouldn't bite, then you move on to other players.

     

    There shouldn't have been any guesswork this morning. They either had a price negotiated with Enlow or they didn't.

     

    On that, I don't disagree but I think you overstate the value of the "entire night".  If he has the arm you think he does I don't pass on him at #37.  They already know what it takes to sign some of these players, and drafting him there makes it easier to get the deal done and you don't risk losing him in the draft.  

     

    Again, it is easier to maximize your draft value if you select Enlow at #37 and only have to go above slot $1.2 million (around what the savings was for Lewis) than to draft him at #76 and have to come up with $2.25 million in slot savings.  

     

     

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    On that, I don't disagree but I think you overstate the value of the "entire night".  If he has the arm you think he does I don't pass on him at #37.  They already know what it takes to sign some of these players, and drafting him there makes it easier to get the deal done and you don't risk losing him in the draft.  

     

    Again, it is easier to maximize your draft value if you select Enlow at #37 and only have to go above slot $1.2 million (around what the savings was for Lewis) than to draft him at #76 and have to come up with $2.25 million in slot savings.  

    True, but I suspect the Twins were confident no one had the slot money to pursue Enlow after they grabbed Leach. I'm sure it was something of a gamble but I'm not sure how much.

     

    And I think it's important to note they basically had the *only* shot at Enlow today. If they couldn't wrangle a deal with him overnight, no one could.

     

    And if they couldn't come to a deal with Enlow, they could pursue other (likely far less upside) guys with their picks today.

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    True, but I suspect the Twins were confident no one had the slot money to pursue Enlow after they grabbed Leach. I'm sure it was something of a gamble but I'm not sure how much.

     

    And I think it's important to note they basically had the *only* shot at Enlow today. If they couldn't wrangle a deal with him overnight, no one could.

     

    And if they couldn't come to a deal with Enlow, they could pursue other (likely far less upside) guys with their picks today.

     

    I'm not sure that is all completely  true because the team that picked right after the Twins, the Reds, selected Jacob Heatherly at pick 3.2 and Nick Allen went later in the 3rd.  So some teams were willing to chase similarly rated HS prospects with solid college commitments in that round.  

     

    Then you can see how teams then spent the latter part of today squeezing their draft pools just like the Twins did today.  THey did this by drafting college seniors that have limited signing options.  Look at the seniors drafted by round:

     

    Round 1  0 

    CBA   1 (Rooker)

    2   1

    CBB  0

    3   2

    4   3

    5   2

    6   5

    7   6

    8  11

    9  18

    10  24

     

    If you look at these later rounds, in round 5 there were 12 high school players selected.  From that point in the draft on, there were 8 total HS players selected in rounds 6-10.  Four in round 6, one in round 7, two in round 8, one in round nine, and ZERO in round 10.  

     

    So, other teams are conserving their slot money too because they aint foolish.   Which, in my opinion, if you manage your slot caps on the top of the draft will create opportunities for you to find players in those rounds and sign them to good value contracts.

     

     

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    I'm not sure that is all completely  true because the team that picked right after the Twins, the Reds, selected Jacob Heatherly at pick 3.2 and Nick Allen went later in the 3rd.  So some teams were willing to chase similarly rated HS prospects with solid college commitments in that round. 

    It's possible other teams had the room to sign Enlow but the Twins had the most money. They had the largest overall pool and were the only team to go underslot with all three picks.

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    It's possible other teams had the room to sign Enlow but the Twins had the most money. They had the largest overall pool and were the only team to go underslot with all three picks.

     

     

    Again, it isn't totally true.  Other teams other harder to sign HS players after Enlow.  

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    Again, it isn't totally true.  Other teams other harder to sign HS players after Enlow.  

    How is it not true that the Twins had the most money? The Twins had far and away the most money going into the third round of the draft. They had the biggest pool and went underslot with their first three picks.

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    How is it not true that the Twins had the most money? The Twins had far and away the most money going into the third round of the draft. They had the biggest pool and went underslot with their first three picks.

     

    The problem with your statement is that it is based on hindsight.  When the Twins made their selection at #35 and #37, being at the top of the 2nd we could not tell what a other teams would do. The Yankees made what appears to me to be a pick that is projected to sign under slot.  THey could have used this savings to go after Enlow in round 2, squeezing money from later picks and then saying to hell with the cap to make the money work.  They did draft a HS pitcher in round 2 that looks to be a potential above slot signee.  

     

    So, again, while what you said is true, it is only true because we know the results, not just the information taht was available at the time of selection.  

     

    If Enlow signs with the Twins and we don't lose any of the subsequent picks for signability reasons (which is unlikely since much of the later Day 2 selections were all based on picking signable players), it all worked out.  However, it still was a mistake to pass on Enlow at #37 and wait for him to slide to #76.  The risk in him not being available was simply not worth it.

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    The problem with your statement is that it is based on hindsight.  When the Twins made their selection at #35 and #37, being at the top of the 2nd we could not tell what a other teams would do. The Yankees made what appears to me to be a pick that is projected to sign under slot.  THey could have used this savings to go after Enlow in round 2, squeezing money from later picks and then saying to hell with the cap to make the money work.  They did draft a HS pitcher in round 2 that looks to be a potential above slot signee.  

     

    So, again, while what you said is true, it is only true because we know the results, not just the information taht was available at the time of selection.  

     

    If Enlow signs with the Twins and we don't lose any of the subsequent picks for signability reasons (which is unlikely since much of the later Day 2 selections were all based on picking signable players), it all worked out.  However, it still was a mistake to pass on Enlow at #37 and wait for him to slide to #76.  The risk in him not being available was simply not worth it.

     

    That's all well and good, except for the fact that the Twins probably liked several available prep pitchers and knew that not enough teams had space to take them all.

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    It's also the riskiest pick, by far. Sure, you might get a frontline starter but what's more likely is you get a #3 starter or a reliever or a guy that barely skates into MLB at all due to injury.

     

    There's a reason the Cubs deprioritized starting pitching prospects in recent years. I'm still not sold it's the right decision but there's merit to the idea. Since Epstein took over, the Cubs have drafted zero pitchers in the first round and a pitcher about half the time in the second round. Then they pile up arms further down the draft board.

    They also have the funds to buy pitching, the Twins do not have that. 61 million this year for Lester, Lackey, Arrietta and Wade. The Twins could never do something similar. Trading to acquire young pitching is also difficult to do

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    Which great top prospects are left to sign? 

    I am not a scout. I can't tell you. Teams hire people to know this. When you get bored at work go look through past drafts and you will find high school players that were drafted and not signed who were later drafted and put up solid to great numbers. It exists as a possibility,. It would be as likely to produce a major league player as any other options in the later rounds..

    Edited by The Wise One
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    Which great top prospects are left to sign? 

    To sign?  How about not yet drafted. Say a David Cabrerra,  tanner Burns, Bryce Bonnin, Jake Elder,  Chris McMahon. Plenty of names out there if you look. Of course, some things are behind pay walls. Sometimes there is not information for the cheap

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    I'm not following your logic in the least.  This is a pretty simple concept.  Lets see if you can follow this when I spell it out more specifically. 

     

    Pick Number 37 allotment  $1.8 million

    Pick Number 76 allotment  $755k

    Total  $2.55 million

     

    Example:  Enlow is going to need $3 million to sign on the dotted line.  

     

    Pick 37: Leach  Signs for $1 million (hypothetical, no idea what he is getting)

    Pick 76: Enlow: Signs for $3 million (savings from Lewis, Rooker and Leach.  

    Total spent on 2: $4 million

     

    or

     

    Pick 37: Enlow: Signs for $3 million (savings from Lewis, Rooker)

    Pick 76: Leach: Signs for $1 million (savings from Lewis, roooker)

    Total spent: $4 million.  

     

    Again, tell me why it would make a difference whether Enlow was picked 76 or 37, or Leach was pick 37 or 76

     

    Because Leach would not have been there at 76. 

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    Because Leach would not have been there at 76. 

     It seems a fair assumption they believed Leach would be taken before 76.  They seemed to have executed their strategy quite well.  They got a guy presumed to be gone at 76 and by taking Lewis were able to draft Enlow how looks like a darn good prospect.  Yet, people are complaining about how they went about.  How do you complain with a fraction of the information, especially when it all worked out quite well?

     

    It cracks me up when people think they are just being cheap.  How hard is it to figure out that they have a pool of X dollars and they are trying to get the most value out of those dollars.  Geeez.  Levine has been clear about this leading up to the draft.  It's not just about the first pick.  When people like Callis praise the Twins draft, the detractors should consider perhaps they are not being realistic or don't fully understand the challenges of this process.

    Edited by Major Leauge Ready
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     It seems a fair assumption they believed Leach would be taken before 76.  They seemed to have executed their strategy quite well.  They got a guy presumed to be gone at 76 and by taking Lewis were able to draft Enlow how looks like a darn good prospect.  Yet, people are complaining about how they went about.  How do you complain with a fraction of the information, especially when it all worked out quite well?

     

    It cracks me up when people think they are just being cheap.  How hard is it to figure out that they have a pool of X dollars and they are trying to get the most value out of those dollars.  Geeez.  Levine has been clear about this leading up to the draft.  It's not just about the first pick.  When people like Callis praise the Twins draft, the detractors should consider perhaps they are not being realistic or don't fully understand the challenges of this process.

     

    yeah, I don't think cheap is the right option. I'm guessing they had Enlow targeted from day 1 as they saw him as mid first round talent and were willing to offer him more than what he was going to get otherwise.  He responds by having high bonus demands which scare away other teams knowing the Twins are going to give him 2+M, essentially pricing himself out of where he would have normally been drafted.

     

    The Twins then look at their BPAs and have about 5 names that they really like and simply leverage them against each other and take the guy who gives them the lowest dollar amount.  They walk out with a top 5 talent in the draft and probably a top 20 (on their list at least) effectively giving them 2 first rounders.  I think a few of us (myself included) maintained that this was a good strategy absent a clear BPA at the top.  There's zero question based on the debate we saw here that there was a clear BPA at the top.  I personally would have preferred McKay, as he was one of the 5 and a better fit in terms of need, but if the money didn't work out, I can understand.  They walk away with more value that way in the draft.

     

    The real problem is that we didn't get any fast rising college pitchers, meaning that they will have to make a big FA splash if they want to give this hitting core a chance over the next few years.

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    The problem with your statement is that it is based on hindsight.  When the Twins made their selection at #35 and #37, being at the top of the 2nd we could not tell what a other teams would do. The Yankees made what appears to me to be a pick that is projected to sign under slot.  THey could have used this savings to go after Enlow in round 2, squeezing money from later picks and then saying to hell with the cap to make the money work.  They did draft a HS pitcher in round 2 that looks to be a potential above slot signee.  

     

    So, again, while what you said is true, it is only true because we know the results, not just the information taht was available at the time of selection.  

     

    If Enlow signs with the Twins and we don't lose any of the subsequent picks for signability reasons (which is unlikely since much of the later Day 2 selections were all based on picking signable players), it all worked out.  However, it still was a mistake to pass on Enlow at #37 and wait for him to slide to #76.  The risk in him not being available was simply not worth it.

    It seems to me like you're really focusing on minutia. As it turns out, the Twins did get Enlow in the third.

     

    Maybe it was a big risk. I'm not sure it was, as Enlow was widely considered first-round talent who needed big money to be lured away from LSU.

     

    Who else had $1.5m above slot in the second round? It's damned tough to backfill $1.5m in rounds 3-10, as the draft pool amounts are small. You need to find that kind of money at the top of the draft, which the Twins did. Draft picks 2-5 appear to be slot guys, or close to it. And by the time you reach Oakland at pick six, their first round slot money is already down to $5.3m, or $2.5m lower than the Twins.

     

    And then, to top it off, the Twins went underslot in both the 1s and 2nd round. They had a boatload of cash on hand at that point and probably got on the horn to Enlow immediately (if they hadn't already talked to him earlier in the day).

     

    Was it a risk? Sure. Was it a big risk? I'm not seeing it. If you're going to find Enlow money, you need to do it in the first round, probably at the top of the first round. No one did that except the Twins.

     

    And, in the end, it worked so who cares?

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    I don't understand what the argument is about.  I hear some arguing they think the Twins took a risk, and if it didn't work out Enlow would have been drafted by another team - The Risk worked and the Twins got him, not worth arguing.

     

    Similar argument is why draft Leach at 37 and Enlow at 76?  Again, that was the best way to be able to get both.  There was risk involved, but much less risk than going Enlow then Leach.  Since Leach is likely to sign for less he was more likely be signable between picks 38-75.  The Twins had more money available than the other team due to how they drafted.  So the odds that another team had the pool money to sign Enlow between 38-75 were much less.  So it looks as if the Twins took the risk of going Leach at 37 and likely signed below slot, then Enlow at 76 whom they knew was going above slot.  Essentially they used their money wisely and drafted in an order to get two guys they wouldn't have been able to if they drafted in a different order.  It was a great strategy that worked out.

     

     

    Edited by Loosey
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    It seems to me like you're really focusing on minutia. As it turns out, the Twins did get Enlow in the third.

     

    Maybe it was a big risk. I'm not sure it was, as Enlow was widely considered first-round talent who needed big money to be lured away from LSU.

     

    Who else had $1.5m above slot in the second round? It's damned tough to backfill $1.5m in rounds 3-10, as the draft pool amounts are small. You need to find that kind of money at the top of the draft, which the Twins did. Draft picks 2-5 appear to be slot guys, or close to it. And by the time you reach Oakland at pick six, their first round slot money is already down to $5.3m, or $2.5m lower than the Twins.

     

    And then, to top it off, the Twins went underslot in both the 1s and 2nd round. They had a boatload of cash on hand at that point and probably got on the horn to Enlow immediately (if they hadn't already talked to him earlier in the day).

     

    Was it a risk? Sure. Was it a big risk? I'm not seeing it. If you're going to find Enlow money, you need to do it in the first round, probably at the top of the first round. No one did that except the Twins.

     

    And, in the end, it worked so who cares?

    In the past people complain about the Twins being "too safe" in everything they do.  Now when they take a risk, (and it works out) people find a way to complain about taking risks.  I personally, loved how they operated this whole thing.  Very strategically planned out.  

     

    It seems as if the team had a detailed plan and it worked out.  If this is how things will begin working in day to day operations for the team and in how they build out the squad in non-draft times, I will be very happy.   

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    In the past people complain about the Twins being "too safe" in everything they do.  Now when they take a risk, (and it works out) people find a way to complain about taking risks.  I personally, loved how they operated this whole thing.  Very strategically planned out.

    The second day of the draft impressed the hell out of me. It was the first time I've seen this front office plan and execute a strategy we're not used to seeing from a Twins front office. Sure, the Castro signing was good and smart but it was one signing. Inversely, they let me down with their bullpen strategy. So far this season, they've made a few decent moves but have been handcuffed by injuries so there's not a lot good to report on that front.

     

    But the draft looked like it was meticulously planned and executed. Sure, maybe they missed on Carlson but everybody misses at least once every draft. They recovered, stuck to a strategy, and executed well in the eyes of most analysts. That's all I can ask for at this point because only time will tell if they picked the right guys. Right now, all we can judge is the process and the process looks pretty good.

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    In the past people complain about the Twins being "too safe" in everything they do.  Now when they take a risk, (and it works out) people find a way to complain about taking risks.  I personally, loved how they operated this whole thing.  Very strategically planned out.  

     

    It seems as if the team had a detailed plan and it worked out.  If this is how things will begin working in day to day operations for the team and in how they build out the squad in non-draft times, I will be very happy.   

     

    My guess is that, since there are hundred of people posting on this site, those aren't all the same people?

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    Another caveat in the way it played out for the Twins, is if Enlow doesn't sign w/ the 37th pick, we lose that slot money correct?  Knowing Leach would sign below slot, There's inherited risk thru the rest of the draft if Enlow is taken at 37 and doesn't sign and we lose that pool of money, obviously the assigned slot money at pick 76 was much less.  

     

    Edited by KidBro
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    The second day of the draft impressed the hell out of me. It was the first time I've seen this front office plan and execute a strategy we're not used to seeing from a Twins front office. Sure, the Castro signing was good and smart but it was one signing. Inversely, they let me down with their bullpen strategy. So far this season, they've made a few decent moves but have been handcuffed by injuries so there's not a lot good to report on that front.

     

    But the draft looked like it was meticulously planned and executed. Sure, maybe they missed on Carlson but everybody misses at least once every draft. They recovered, stuck to a strategy, and executed well in the eyes of most analysts. That's all I can ask for at this point because only time will tell if they picked the right guys. Right now, all we can judge is the process and the process looks pretty good.

     

    It doesn't impact your overall point, but I doubt they missed on Carlson (they very well may have missed on someone else). One thing we appear to be learning is that Falvey places a ton of emphasis on pitching mechanics in prospects - the Twins cited that as a big factor for Leach, in particular. Basically all the pitchers they drafted in the first 7 rounds appear to have relatively clean deliveries that could allow for them to be starters, if other aspects develop.

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    It doesn't impact your overall point, but I doubt they missed on Carlson (they very well may have missed on someone else). One thing we appear to be learning is that Falvey places a ton of emphasis on pitching mechanics in prospects - the Twins cited that as a big factor for Leach, in particular. Basically all the pitchers they drafted in the first 7 rounds appear to have relatively clean deliveries that could allow for them to be starters, if other aspects develop.

    Yeah, Carlson was just a placeholder for "Player X, probably Pitcher X". I used him specifically because so many here wanted to see him drafted.

     

    And good point about mechanics. It shouldn't be ignored that Enlow also has a curve with a good spin rate. I suspect that was a big part of the decision. You can teach a slider or change but from what I've read, teaching a curve with good spin is a feel pitch. A guy either has it or he doesn't.

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    yeah, I don't think cheap is the right option. I'm guessing they had Enlow targeted from day 1 as they saw him as mid first round talent and were willing to offer him more than what he was going to get otherwise.  He responds by having high bonus demands which scare away other teams knowing the Twins are going to give him 2+M, essentially pricing himself out of where he would have normally been drafted.

     

     

    The real problem is that we didn't get any fast rising college pitchers, meaning that they will have to make a big FA splash if they want to give this hitting core a chance over the next few years.

     

     

    I think McKay wanted a hot being a two-way player and Tampa promised that opportunity which lead to him declining the Twins offer.  We know about assumptions but this one does not seem to far fetched.  I wish they would have let him take a shot at it.  If it works out, he is a tremendous asset.  If not, you would think that would be clear to McKay as well and he accepts focusing on pitching.  I know its not done but that does not mean it can't be done.

     

    Mauer only has one year left.  Hughes and Perkins are also coming off the payroll.   They can afford a FA starter but we need to be realistic.  SPs are in short supply and we probably can't outbid the big markets for the very elite but I do think a Santana type FA can be acquired.   Let's hope they can come up with a good FA because we have nothing proven behind Santana and his contract is done the end of 2018.  I guess we should add his contract to the contracts coming off the books.

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