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  • The Time Has Come to Place Byron Buxton on the Injured List


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins and Byron Buxton had a strategy: They would keep the banged-up star away from yet another trip to the injured list by feeding him a steady regimen of rest. 

    One can argue the merits of this plan up until now. But as a roster crunch ensues and his performance continues to suffer, this feels like the right time to give Buck a break.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last week, the Twins played games on all seven days and Buxton was out of the starting lineup for three of them. This included two days off in a three-day span (Monday and Wednesday), and Sunday ahead of an off day. Granted, there are mitigating circumstances to account for – he played both ends of a doubleheader on Tuesday, and the team was wrapping an exhausting stretch on Sunday – but they're clearly sticking to their plan of plentiful respites.

    The plan is working, to an extent: Buxton has avoided the injured list through two months. That's a big victory in and of itself. But he's also doing little to contribute right now, and hamstringing the roster by so frequently being a healthy(ish) scratch.

    Back in mid-May, when many were debating over the team's handling of Buxton and his frequency of rest days, I tweeted my point-of-view on the matter: If anything, the Twins weren't being cautious enough. When your most important player is wincing through knee and hip ailments, the safe bet is simply to place him on the shelf for a while to heal.

    Since the date of that tweet (May 16th), Buxton has slashed .155/.254/.241 with one home run and three RBIs. After producing a staggering 1.5 Wins Above Replacement in his first month's worth of games, his WAR over the past month sits at 0.0 – a dead-on replacement level player. Those words feel extremely weird to even type out in connection with Buxton.

    Slumps happen in baseball. That's the nature of the game. When you go on a tear like Buxton did to open the season, a corresponding downswing is to be expected. Moreover, his underlying metrics haven't taken a worrisome nosedive or anything. I'm not suggesting Buxton is unplayable right now or that there's a dire need to keep him out of the lineup.

    At the same time, it's impossible not to believe his physical state is negatively affecting his play. The sheer magnitude of his slump, along with the occasional grimace and gingerly step, make clear that he's hampered. When asked a couple weeks ago whether his knee injury was improving, Buxton offered a tepid "no comment." He also, unsurprisingly, expressed a desire to stay off the IL.

    Since then his numbers have improved a bit – highlighted by Friday night's game, which featured a double and a homer. But he still doesn't look right. He's still taking as much time off as ever. And the Twins are facing some tough roster decisions ahead.

    Max Kepler will be activated when the Twins return home to open a three-game series against the Yankees. It sounds like Carlos Correa will be activated soon after. Okay, easy enough to make room for those two guys – simply send down Mark Contreras and Jermaine Palacios, who were called up specifically to replace them. 

    But what about making room for Alex Kirilloff? He has found his swing once again in Triple-A, where he's slashing a ridiculous .387/.477/.693 since being optioned in mid-May. Crucially, the power has resurfaced, with Kirilloff mashing four doubles and five home runs in his past eight games for the Saints to earn International League Player of the Week honors. There is simply no reason to leave him in the minors right now.

    But who gets ousted from the position-player ranks to enable such a move? Trevor Larnach, who was originally swapped in for Kirilloff, certainly isn't going anywhere – he's been one of the team's best players since getting called up.

    How about Gilberto Celestino? It would make sense logistically, but are you really gonna send down a kid who's batting .350 with an .816 OPS?

    Nick Gordon? He's been playing pretty regularly and pretty well, with a .265/.308/.490 slash line in his past 15 games, and sending him down would mean losing him on waivers since he's out of options.

    José Miranda? He would've been the obvious candidate a couple of weeks ago but he too has begun to find his stroke, with a .361/.378/.722 slash line dating back to May 20th. His right-handed power feels too important to lose at this moment.

    Now, maybe this takes care of itself for the time being, because Kyle Garlick suffered a hamstring pull on Saturday that could lead to him landing on the IL. But I do think that sort of distracts from the point, which is that it would make sense from multiple perspectives to shut Buxton down for a while, sort through the roster crunch, and then bring him back in a couple week. During that span, the crunch figures to work itself out. Maybe Celestino or Miranda start slumping, or Kirilloff's bat doesn't take in the big leagues. Most likely, someone else will get hurt. By the time Buxton comes back, he'll hopefully be healthier, requiring a bit less time off, and ready to get back to mashing.

    Buck won't like it, but he seems to be aligned with the Twins on this critical directive: doing whatever it takes to ensure he stays on the field throughout the second half and is able to be there for the team when it matters most.

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    33 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

    How would we know until giving it a try? Playing regularly doesn't seem to be helping. It stands to reason that two weeks off of his legs, getting steady treatment, will be helpful to some extent. Only one way to find out how much.

    Well "we" wouldn't know, but presumably the medical staff would. And at least in this (3 week old) article, it's stated that it "doesn't appear to be something that will resolve itself in a matter of days with rest."

    That's a bit ambiguous, but enough for me to question whether an IL stint would actually help. Particularly since they haven't. 

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    Past time... like 3 weeks past time.... he should be getting ready to come OFF the IL ready to tear @#$! up

    Instead he has literally limped along only to delay the inevitable. 

    Essentially we traded 3 weeks of hobbled Buxton for 3 weeks of post IL elite Buxton due to stubborness

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    1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

    Well "we" wouldn't know, but presumably the medical staff would. And at least in this (3 week old) article, it's stated that it "doesn't appear to be something that will resolve itself in a matter of days with rest."

    That's a bit ambiguous, but enough for me to question whether an IL stint would actually help. Particularly since they haven't. 

    I think you are overestimating the certainty of medical science. And also we're talking about degrees here. not absolutes Maybe it won't "resolve itself" but will it get better? How could it not? 

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    1 hour ago, ashbury said:

    He's had above league average OPS the past week and a half, so let's fix that by cherry picking away the good part?

    He's literally had one good offensive game in a month and I'm the one cherrypicking. Come on now. 

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    On a live interview on WCCO radio, Buxton said he hates, anything but playing in the field every day, it ruins his timing ; Baldelli may be doing him more harm that good with his willy-nilly strategy.

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    Watching Buxton fall short of his potential, and our expectations, reminds me of watching Mauer and Morneau try to play through their post- concussion issues. It's not good for anyone. Different issues clearly, but it takes a toll on everyone. Give Byron a chance to get healthy.

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    I’m not taking a side on this, and don’t know how Buxton reaggravated his knee, but according to the article it’s a lingering issue from last season? 

    As mentioned by @Rosterman and @Chachi — Buxton’s performance incentives — my understanding is that they don’t kick in until next season. With this new load management program, if this is how it’s going to be going forward, I have to wonder if Buxton will have trouble reaching even the lowest bonus step of 502 PA even when he’s healthy for a full season, which puts serious MVP considerations (his other pay incentive) pretty much out of reach, which means… I have no idea what any of this means. We need him on the field, for sure. 
     

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    5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    I get the same sense of entitlement in this article as the "What's wrong with Jorge Polanco" thread. The acknowledgement the metrics don't show a problem and that slumps happen, but no actual acceptance of the fact sometimes luck gives you slumps. There is an expectation Buxton either hits a home run or steals all the bases consecutively after inevitably getting on base because he deserves a 1.000 OBP around here. Scarcely anybody had a word to say about how Buxton was too injured to play in the 10 games following the slide where he was hitting .317/.391/.805 for an OPS 1.196.

    How bad is Buxton's knee? Well, his sprint speed shows a significant, but not crazy, drop off this year, from 30.0 ft/sec to 29.1 ft/sec, but Buxton is getting older and hitting balls very hard. Despite his barrel rate being down a little, his average exit velocity is tied for a career best.

    Buxton probably isn't 100% (he doesn't look 100% watching him in person at games), but he's seeing and hitting the ball well and if his injury starts getting worse, I'd expect the Twins to move him to the IL. 

     

    Ya honestly dont get the article.  He's been well above average the last 10 games at the plate and absolutely hitting the ball hard. The knee is something that could linger all year, we've heard this a few times now from Rocco. 

    Really don't understand why the tweet on May 16th had any relevancy.

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    1 hour ago, Tim said:

    Ya honestly dont get the article.  He's been well above average the last 10 games at the plate and absolutely hitting the ball hard. The knee is something that could linger all year, we've heard this a few times now from Rocco. 

    Really don't understand why the tweet on May 16th had any relevancy.

    Honestly, it comes from the desperate need some people have for Buxton to be the greatest hitter in MLB history. The moment Buxton doesn't put up MVP caliber numbers at the plate for more than a week, I guarantee you there will be an article speculating Buxton's injuries are at fault. Any injury. Even a minor injury from a month and a half ago.

    As has been my position for years, Buxton is probably a wRC+ 120ish hitter with declining, but still elite, speed and he will never play another full season in his entire career. He's a 3 WAR player in a normal year and a 5-6 WAR player in a full season.

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    It reminds me so much of last year when he tore up the league in April, then got hurt and went on the IL for a stretch.  Came back and immediately got hurt by getting hit with the pitch on the hand and went back on the IL.  Came back late in the season and played the rest of the way.  Now, last year he was over .400 when he went on the IL.  When he came back late in the season he was not the same hitter and ended the season at .306, meaning he hit a fair amount under .300 down the stretch.  Now this is not a compliment, and it is not a criticism; it is purely an observation.  Again this year he was tearing up the league in April, got hurt, and has slipped a pretty fair amount.  The difference is he went on the IL last year and did not this year.  So, in my extremely humble opinion, the question becomes does the IL do any good other than to create a roster spot for someone else?  Or, do you let him play and manage his workload and therapy?  I hear people saying we want him healthy for the 2nd half when the games mean the most, but if we don't win in May and June the games in the 2nd half don't have the chance to be meaningful.  Is he helping us win?  Go from there.  

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    A few weeks ago on the other network, an ironic headline appeared: "Buxton Getting Back to His Old Self."  Apparently he had a couple of hits that day, and the writer got a little excited and kind of let his emotions dictate the story.  Well, he was right, he is back to his old self: teasing with potential and failing to deliver.  That's Mr. Buxton.  We're enthralled with his potential, but he rarely delivers. Why we signed him to a multi year multi million contract is beyond me. (Actually it's not; but I'll save those thoughts for a different place)  Like with Mauer, I know our hands were forced by impending free agency.  But unlike Mauer, Buxton has no track record to warrant a huge contract.  When we signed Mauer, he was coming off an MVP season and backed that up with many years of solid to all-star caliber play.   Track records matter.  Maybe we can find another club dazzled by Buck's potential to dump him upon.  IMHO, we should try to trade him.

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    18 hours ago, RpR said:

    If Buxton does not play against the Yankees, the Yankees chance of a sweep increase.

    Not sure I agree.

    If a HEALTHY Buxton does not play against the Yankees, the Yankees chance of a sweep increase.

    He's not contributing much lately and I can't concretely know why not, but injury seems most reasonable. Celestino could conceivably have a better series in center than a hobbled Buxton.

    I think the team needs to do whatever is best to get Buxton back on track in the long run rather than base his usage on the team's current series.

     

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    Look, it's a shame, but Buxton is no longer an outfielder. 

    The guy is made of glass.  I'm not saying that he's a wimp, I'm saying the guy's body can't take playing the outfield any more.

    That leaves two choices, either permanent DH or part time DH and 1st base.  And yes, I know that he can be hurt running the bases, but that's moot.  If he plays baseball, he has to run the bases, so it's really not a consideration. 

    Taking him out of the OF might cut his injuries in half. Well, that may be a bit optimistic, but it would protect his 50 year old body and keep him in the lineup a bit more. 

    We have guys that we can put in CF.  There isn't a reason to pretend that Buxton is one of them.

     

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    Buxton has a track record of consistently be injured.  I believe you could put him on the IL for two months and he would come back and reinjure his hip or knee or quite probably something else and the Twins are no further ahead.  

    Given the tenor of the article it seems he doesn't really feel up to playing either.  He appears to savor his days off.

    There is no debate that when he is on the field no one is more talented or dominant.  Wins and losses do not take into account potential.   

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    Agreed on Buxton. A  month ago he was on fire. At a recent game I attended I watched as his backleg seemed oddly bent in the batters box and he was completely off balance and leaning forward. He hit weak ground balls with an upper body arms only swing. Nothing at all like the guy crushing everything in early May. Put him on the IL, keep Celestino & bring up Kiriloff. 

    What to do with Arraez? Love him as a hitter, hate him as a zero speed, no power, poor fielder. DH & occasional backup at 2nd.

    Means trade Gordon for BP help as he is out of options. Can we trade Sanchez & Urshela for Garver? (I wish). 

    Garver, Miranda, Lewis & buying a good bullpen for $35M would be far far better than Correa, Sanchez, Urshela and this bullpen. The last 3 are all fine players, but simply not what this team needed.

    We suddenly have a logjam at SS and should have rolled the dice with Miranda, Lewis, Pallacio & Gordon and spent $35M on the Bullpen.

    That was the obvious route to take from the beginning. But no, Falvey & company had to "make a splash" and sign Correa.

    Typical small market stupidity trying  to buy legitimacy at the expense of the teams overall success.

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    12 hours ago, RpR said:

    On a live interview on WCCO radio, Buxton said he hates, anything but playing in the field every day, it ruins his timing ; Baldelli may be doing him more harm that good with his willy-nilly strategy.

    Could we stop blaming everything on Rocco? The plan for Buxton was crafted by a collaboration of the trainer / coaches and probably input from Falvey and Levine - it's not like Rocco is will-nilly penciling Buxton out of the lineup, he's on a defined schedule. I don't like the plan, but it's the will of the front office.

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    21 hours ago, RpR said:

    If Buxton does not play against the Yankees, the Yankees chance of a sweep increase.

    The Yankees will sweep regardless. We have 0 pitching. They are going to feast. 

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    Good article. Buxton should be sat until healthy and then play fulltime. Having your best player only playing part time is ridiculous!! And why hold to a plan but then play both ends of a double header?

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    12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Honestly, it comes from the desperate need some people have for Buxton to be the greatest hitter in MLB history. The moment Buxton doesn't put up MVP caliber numbers at the plate for more than a week, I guarantee you there will be an article speculating Buxton's injuries are at fault. Any injury. Even a minor injury from a month and a half ago.

    Buxton ranks 170 out of 178 MLB players in wOBA over the past month, after ranking 8th out of all MLB hitters in the first month, and he's been openly playing through physical issues, but we're gonna act like this is all some overreaction to a standard baseball slump, huh? Okay. 

    It's clearly not a "minor injury" if it's still affecting him now and the team implies it'll take an entire offseason to fully heal. What a remark. 

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    9 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

    Buxton ranks 170 out of 178 MLB players in wOBA over the past month, after ranking 8th out of all MLB hitters in the first month, and he's been openly playing through physical issues, but we're gonna act like this is all some overreaction to a standard baseball slump, huh? Okay. 

    It's clearly not a "minor injury" if it's still affecting him now and the team implies it'll take an entire offseason to fully heal. What a remark. 

    Well @Nick Nelson, I'll place the Twins coaches, managers and Byron Buxton's knowledge and experience of how serious his injury up against your speculation that it's impossible for Buxton to slump.

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    4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    Well @Nick Nelson, I'll place the Twins coaches, managers and Byron Buxton's knowledge and experience of how serious his injury up against your speculation that it's impossible for Buxton to slump.

    Yeah. That's definitely something I speculated. Honest question: did you actually read this article? 

    slump.PNG

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    We've got to go by what the experts on the team say as we do not have the medical information available to us that they have nor the medical knowledge to make an educated decision.  We are only going by his stats and what we see on the field which is mostly "gut feel".

    I fully trust that team management and medical personnel have/will make the best decision here in Buck's best interest and in the team's best interest.  Let's trust that these guys are making the right decision because there is no way we can know how it would work out going the other way.

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    22 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Do we know that an IL stint will fix the knee? 

     

    If it will, then IL him immediately. He's not the same player.

     

    If it won't, and I don't think it will or they'd have done it already, then we're getting the 100 games of Buxton they told us we were getting, and we're not getting 100 games of a superstar. 

    That's what I'm seeing too, Chief. I suspect that the choice is playing less than 100% or surgery with a longish recovery. Ever since I saw the item that they drained fluid from his knee, I felt like it was a matter of time before he would be placed on the IL, but I don't think it would be to rest for a week to ten days.

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    Is there something wrong with his head or is it his eyes?  He strikes out like Sano.  What’s annoying is that after all his injuries maybe not his fault this knee goes back to a dumb move of not making up his mind to slide or not and so coming up with a flop.  Duffy?  After this Tuesday night of more nibbling, aiming, yanking, walking and choking what?  Maybe Rocco finally grasped that he can’t be used in big spots until something changes if it ever does.

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    buck just doesn't look like the dynamo we are used to seeing. He looks uncomfortable at the plate more often than not. He still isn't mashing the ball with authority. Twins no longer get to use his speed on the bases, or his dynamic outfield play. His fragility is taking away many of the tools that made him one of the most exciting players in MLB. He isn't that anymore. His toolbox is full of broken or rusty tools.

    Would 10 days on the shelf help his knee? Not if its as busted up as they are suggesting. As for the Twins as a 1st place team. Won't be long before they are not anymore. The rest of the division will catch up with them soon enough. these 3 games with NY couldn't have come at a worse time since Twins can't win any of them. They simply don't know how to beat the Yankees.

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    On 6/6/2022 at 7:04 PM, Nick Nelson said:

    What is this idea of him "coming around at the plate" based on? One good game on Friday night? Outside of that he's got five singles and one double in 30 at-bats since snapping the 0-fer streak, and zero multi-hit games in the past month. 

    His overall #'s the past week, and yes finally hitting a HR on Friday and a double last night. For about 3 weeks he wasn't hitting anything hard at all.

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