Twins and 2020 Arbitration

Pay up and buy two years of free agency from Berrios. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. There is a contract the will win this deal and the Twins have the resources to make it happen.

Well we already know the Twins attempted to extend him last year so I would assume we’re trying to extend him again this year. I also hope we’re trying to extend Odorizzi.

Given the amount of money that the Twins have to spend, the relatively small difference in their positions, and the apparent hope to keep Jose in the family for the next several years, I don't understand why the Twins would play hardball with him at this time.

Given the amount of money that the Twins have to spend, the relatively small difference in their positions, and the apparent hope to keep Jose in the family for the next several years, I don't understand why the Twins would play hardball with him at this time.

And maybe they aren't. Maybe they are working on an extention and Berrios is being unreasonable. We don't know. My hope is that either this year or next, they can get a deal for him to buys out 2 or so FA seasons. Talking about impact pitching all the time. Berrios is impact. Keeping him around and happy I think is of extreme importance. 

Given the lack of multiyear contract given out by this front office, it's a better conclusion that the front office is the issue in not getting him signed.

Like the multi-year extensions given to Polanco, Kepler, and now Sano? I think the problem with Berrios on a long term deal is he's going into his year 26 season and is just hitting his first year of arbitration. There's a lot of variables for both sides to consider and it's not a simple construct. It's a lot harder to work out what a "fair" deal is and what both sides even want. 

Berrios has been healthy and good (almost exactly as good as Wheeler, who just got $118M and everyone wanted to be our ace next year, over the last 2 seasons). It's not crazy at all for Berrios to think, I want to get to FA as soon as I can, because I'm already as good as a guy who just scored a ton of money. I'm guessing he's not interested in buying out a year of FA right now; if he had a significant injury I bet he'd be a bit more interested. 

For the Twins, this is a guy who has been healthy and good and is just coming into his prime. But he's had a second half lull in the past two years and there's some risk that this is who he is: there's not another leap to take (which is what Wheeler's contract is about: every team that bid on him was better that he has another gear to unlock). There's also the question of injury: just because someone has been healthy doesn't guarantee that they will STAY healthy. You're trying to guess on whether or not the innings he's piling up are a signal that he's just a horse who isn't vulnerable to stress injuries or if he's a guy who is going to blow out their elbow after 1000 MLB innings and never be the same player.

A Berrios extension is the most complicated to calculate of any of the arbitration guys. Not surprised that one hasn't been figured out. I'd like it to happen, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't.

Also, I'm not worried at all about the $375K difference in their numbers. They're close enough together that Berrios isn't going to be insulted, the team isn't going to be pissed if they lose in arbitration, which means that no one has to get too aggressive if it gets to a hearing (and they could settle easily by splitting the difference somewhere near the middle before it ever gets there. wanna give him a "win" if you're the team? Instead of offering a 50% split, go 60-65% because $50K means nothing to your budget).

Taylor Rogers came in a bit higher than I thought, Buxton a bit lower, but none of the settlements looked too weird and I think everyone probably walks out fairly happy so far.

We know what Berrios will make in his arbitration seasons. It is what he could garner as a free agent out of the chute. On the Twins side, it is a gamble that includes an extension or a buyout (and also once you have a player unde contract you have the qualifying ofer to keep them for an additional year, although someone of Berrios age wouldn't take it). Berrios banks that he will be healthy. The Twins never want to overpay on a contract, it seems (look at Kepler, Polanco, Sano...all very team friendly). I also worry about attitude. Remembering the days of Dark Star commenting on the contract the Twins gave Cristian Guzman. "The Twins gave him that much? He TOOK that much" or something along that ilk. Realizing that maybe, just maybe the player might be less motivated to do anything more than show up each season to get paid rather than continue to dream of riches beyond...which sometimes happens in this biz.

We know what Berrios will make in his arbitration seasons. It is what he could garner as a free agent out of the chute. On the Twins side, it is a gamble that includes an extension or a buyout (and also once you have a player unde contract you have the qualifying ofer to keep them for an additional year, although someone of Berrios age wouldn't take it). Berrios banks that he will be healthy. The Twins never want to overpay on a contract, it seems (look at Kepler, Polanco, Sano...all very team friendly). I also worry about attitude. Remembering the days of Dark Star commenting on the contract the Twins gave Cristian Guzman. "The Twins gave him that much? He TOOK that much" or something along that ilk. Realizing that maybe, just maybe the player might be less motivated to do anything more than show up each season to get paid rather than continue to dream of riches beyond...which sometimes happens in this biz.

Do you worry about Berrios’ attitude in particular or the attitude of any young player in general as it relates to getting an extension?

It seems to me that a Berrios takes great pride in his performance and his conditioning and preparation seem to show it. I am not concerned that an extension would foster an attitude where he would be less motivate to be a top pitcher.

The risk in a Berrios extension is the same in signing any pitcher to a long term deal. Injury. Even in the case of injury I think his work habits and conditioning will give him a better chance of a full and quicker recovery.

I expect the Twins and Berrios are possibly looking at a negotiating a long-term contract.

Did you read this thread before reading the news on Sano?

I’m hoping they are going to work out a deal with Berrios, too.

Sorry - I read it after and I am delighted.  Now get Berrios!  Thanks for the note.

Switch that around:  Berrios is willing to go to arbitration for $375K after he did not accept extension offers the last 2 offseasons. 

 

This is closer to the truth.

I like it when players bet on themselves. $375K means a lot more to Berrios than it does to Pohlad's. Plus, what's the rush? 3 years of control left. I don't get the worry or the disdain. This whole paradigm where player's only get paid their worth after getting paid way less than they performed for years just because a team can is tired. I would rather Berrios get paid than a dumpster diving free agent pitcher, as has been the practice. Berrios is worth Wheeler money. It's the principle. Just because a player is younger, doesn't mean he is worth less. I think he should be paid 8 million for this coming year. 

Counting those 3 and Castro, that is 4 in 3 years. I'm not overwhelmed.

well, Castro was a FA signing, not an extension...if your issue is multiyear deals in general, we also did multiyear deals on Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz. (yes, 2 years is a multiyear deal. yes, a team option counts) so that's 6 in 3 years and 5 in the last 2.

It's not like they're ignoring this option, or letting guys walk instead of signing them to a multiyear pact.

They’ve also signed Pineda to a pair of two-year pacts.

Given the amount of money that the Twins have to spend, the relatively small difference in their positions, and the apparent hope to keep Jose in the family for the next several years, I don't understand why the Twins would play hardball with him at this time.

I guess Derek's sacred value chart says he's only worth $4 million period! It seems incredibly penny wise and dollar foolish. 

An awful lot of overreacting here IMO. Arbitration hearings start February 3rd. That’s more than 3 weeks from now. The chances of Berrios and the Twins actually going to a hearing are slim. It is far more likely that the two sides are exchanging extension terms.

On the most recent chat on MLBTR, the host speculated they are discussing an extension as they have the past 2 offseasons.

it’s certainly possible, and I hope they do... but how did you determine odds here? Why are you so confident?

Because they're only off by 375K and there's no way that Team Berrios submitted a number that represented their absolute floor, one where if they don't get it they're pissed. And there's no way the Twins offered their absolute ceiling, a number which they'll go to the wall to keep from pay beyond. So if they don't work out a multiyear extension it's very likely they meet somewhere in the middle before a hearing.