Twins Acquire RHP Sonny Gray from Reds for Chase Petty

See Santana and Berrios? Santana spent 8 years in a Twins uniform. Berrios spent 6 years in a Twins uniform. Signing those guys to long term contracts means you've failed to develop replacements.

Signing any player in free agency means the farm system failed to produce the needed talent. Period. Sometimes it's going to fail to produce. It's the case for every team. Hoping the farm system fails and you have to sign top talent at free agency wouldn't be my goal.

My take is that the Twins were looking for and got an "innings eater".  With our other young MLB starters, and several MiLB starters on pitch counts due to COVID, we will need Gray more than ever.  The bonus is that if he pitches well we will have him in addition to Maeda in 2023 along with any of the kids that stick from getting innings this year.  Another solid starter would help for 2022 though so one more trade please.

2 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

GG caliber short stop and Top 30 starting pitcher aren't bald spare tires.  Come on, that's disingenuous. 

GG caliber shorstop = Pedro Florimon. Maybe we should have signed him instead? He played on a MiLB contract at AAA San Diego as depth behind Tatis last year. Kiner-Falefa is far below averge at the plate and that's an issue when half of the game is trying to hit the ball.

Top 30 starting pitcher? Sure, 5 years ago. Sonny Gray's FIP looked pretty good last year, even so, he was the 48th ranked pitcher on Fangraphs in terms of WAR and didn't qualify because he was hurt too much. On Baseball Reference, Sonny Gray was 36th, 6 spots behind league ace Kyle Gibson.

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Honestly, I don't know what to make of this trade. Reports on Petty were glowing, but reports on prospects like Petty almost always are and we have no real competitive play to judge.

If the reports on Petty aren't overblown, he could be pitching as an ace at the MLB level in two years. More akin to what Gray was... rather than what he is today as Gray has trended downwards (and lost significant velocity). Petty was the first pitcher drafted by Falvey where I was becoming legitimately excited about him. My initial perception was raw hard "thrower" so I wasn't on board the Petty is an ace train. However, the reports made Petty seem like a natural pitcher who had just never needed to use his other pitches because of the elite velocity.

At this point, Gray is probably a 2.0-3.0 WAR mid/back rotation starter so trading Petty could be a colossal mistake. A good front office will never, ever give up a potentially elite prospect for middle of the road, short term MLB talent. 

What I want from this franchise is direction. The Garver trade does not make the Twins better this year in my opinion, and it doesn't really make them better in the future as Garver was controlled just as long as Kiner-Falefa. I'm not bullish on Jeffers at all and I'm awfully skeptical the difference between Kiner-Falefa and Palacios (who has earned a shot in my opinion) at shortstop is more than 1 WAR. The difference between Garver and Jeffers at catcher is probably 3 WAR and I don't view Gray as anything but an average starter the Twins could have signed.

The Twins might be filling holes for this season, but they're not a competitive team without massive ifs being resolved. 

Yeah I know it might be harsh but I agree with your analysis.  Maybe Gray has another great year in him hard to say but it looks to me like he is regressing so I don't see that much difference from him and someone you could buy on the market. 

I get that Petty is a looong ways a way and he could end up like Kohl Stewart. Although given the analysis I have seen I doubt it. Given where the team is at, this move just doesn't make sense to me.  It feels more like an unforced error than anything else.  Why give up the potential of a hard throwing starter for an in decline starter for a team that even if it reaches the playoffs is likely one and done.  Save these trades (assets) for when the team is player or two away and go for something that will make a bigger impact.

For me this trade is a risk not worth taking.

We’d all like to see the Twins FO publicize their plans in black and white, but we just got Gray.

I think there’s a metaphor there for us to not overreact on individual transactions. There’s a longer-term plan at play — let’s check back on April 7. 

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

GG caliber shorstop = Pedro Florimon. Maybe we should have signed him instead? He played on a MiLB contract at AAA San Diego as depth behind Tatis last year. Kiner-Falefa is far below averge at the plate and that's an issue when half of the game is trying to hit the ball.

Top 30 starting pitcher? Sure, 5 years ago. Sonny Gray's FIP looked pretty good last year, even so, he was the 48th ranked pitcher on Fangraphs in terms of WAR and didn't qualify because he was hurt too much. On Baseball Reference, Sonny Gray was 36th, 6 spots behind league ace Kyle Gibson.

Baseball reference had IFK's WAR at 3.7; Fangraphs had it 2.3.  At least you're doubling down on the disingenuousness with the Florimon reference.  

Sonny Gray has been a top 30 pitcher over the past three years. 

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sure. Replacing a tire with a hole in it with a bald temporary spare while you're parked at a tire shop helps with driving a car, too. It doesn't mean there weren't far better options...

So who is the tire with a hole in it and who is the bald spare in this?...honestly want to know.

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

GG caliber shorstop = Pedro Florimon. Maybe we should have signed him instead? He played on a MiLB contract at AAA San Diego as depth behind Tatis last year. Kiner-Falefa is far below averge at the plate and that's an issue when half of the game is trying to hit the ball.

Top 30 starting pitcher? Sure, 5 years ago. Sonny Gray's FIP looked pretty good last year, even so, he was the 48th ranked pitcher on Fangraphs in terms of WAR and didn't qualify because he was hurt too much. On Baseball Reference, Sonny Gray was 36th, 6 spots behind league ace Kyle Gibson.

One year sample size here...how was Garver in 2020?

Just now, PseudoSABR said:

Baseball reference had IFK's WAR at 3.7; Fangraphs had it 2.3.  At least you're doubling down on the disingenuousness with the Florimon reference.  

Sonny Gray has been a top 30 pitcher over the past three years. 

I'm dead serious with Florimon. He's was a super elite defensive shortstop who couldn't hit. He's been on MiLB contracts for the last several years. You want to quote Baseball Reference, that's fine. My issue with bWAR is I consider it kinda junk for defensive premium positions because of the shift and the fact bWAR doesn't account for it resulting in the potential to dramatically inflate actual value.

Fangraphs, which uses a metric which does attempt to account for the shift (UZR) is 2.3 fWAR for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, which is barely holding his own for starting player and he played in 158 games last year. The Texas Rangers thought so much of him and his cheap, team controlled contract that they went out and signed two shortstops to replace him. Bottom line? Texas viewed Isiah Kiner-Falefa as a liability on a playoff caliber team or they wouldn't have been seeking to replace him.

Sonny Gray has lost velocity and trended downwards over the past few years and he had a great 2019 which skews the numbers (over the past 3 years). If you're expecting a return to 2019 form in a league with a DH, I think you're being unreasonably optimistic. 

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Baseball Trade values has Gray listed at a value of 28.3.  Peguero, the other pitcher acquired is only .10.  Petty on the other hand has a listed value of 4.80.  The Twins CRUSHED this trade.  Look, I hate to see Petty go.  He was an intriguing prospect.  But he's YEARS away.  For this season and next at a minimum Sonny Gray is a GREAT addition.  I agree with those who are disappointed we didn't add someone like Bassitt.  But when you STEAL Gray away from the Reds like the Twins did here, you can package something to Oakland for Montas.  Players in play for that type of move would include:  Arraez, Larnach, Lewis, Martin, some of our young pitchers.  The point is, we have the firepower, should we choose to use it, to acquire a SP like Montas to pair with Gray at the top of our rotation and certainly compete for a playoff spot.  Let's hope there is more to come.  

And that TopGunn is why I see zero credibility in those trade value numbers whenever someone uses them here.

I have previously stated that in my dreams I saw Petty as the next Dwight Gooden, minus the baggage.  If he becomes that, huge win for the Reds...but it will be four or five years from now.  

Are the twins just totally adverse to a pitcher throwing fast? We seem to trade or release any pitcher that throws hard to get pitchers who throw slow. We've been bottom five in the league in velocity for the past 5 years, and we seem to wonder why our pitching staff doesn't compete well in the modern day game. I don't know maybe it has something to do with the fact that we treat pitching like it's 1983, throw strikes and put the ball in play. I'd like to say I'm surprised by this move, but this seems to be more of the status quo we have come to expect from the Twins.

2 minutes ago, se7799 said:

One year sample size here...how was Garver in 2020?

How was Gray in 2016 or 2018?

Just now, bean5302 said:

How was Gray in 2016 or 2018?

Well, he was in New York I believe.  Explainable in my opinion.  I wouldn't do well in New York either.

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm dead serious with Florimon. 

Lol.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pedro-florimon/8385/stats?position=SS

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floripe01.shtml

Cherry picking years to benefit your argument is poor form in all cases.  Garver shouldn't be reduced to 2020, but it makes far less sense to reduce Gray to his 2016 or 2018.  

The Twins never really fast track young arms. When they do, they're usually guys that don't care about service time like Dobnak. They usually bring them a step at a time. Which is fine, except some guys have youth and power as their main asset and could benefit from major league coaching and medical staff.

I like the move, but wonder what the cost would have been to acquire Gray two plus years ago when he could have helped us then and now.  

Importantly, the FO seems to have learned that you always look to add and upgrade talent. Contending or not. Otherwise you leave yourself way too much to do in a surprise year, a trade deadline, or off season. If you wait to add until your "window" is open, you usually leave yourself too much to do in a single off season and then make dumb deals or no deals at the trade deadline.

1 hour ago, GoMNTwins said:

If this was an attractive arm to them, they could have just signed Stroman and kept a prospect. If he's good, he's gone in two years. That's best case scenario. 

It seems you don't understand that the Twins ownership would like our team to be like that of the Oakland A's or the Tampa Bay Rays. Spend the least amount of money on a product that can compete. What do you think our owners can spend money? It's not like they have ever or actually own a bank. 

We get a much needed starting pitcher, grabbed up a prospect that's...4-6 years from contributing? Unless he turns into a hall of famer I'll be happy with this deal. Provided Gray performs. 

I have two big problems with this trade, one it wasn't done after signing another starter, meaning this seems like an awesome second move for a starer, not the first move. And my second problem is WHY the Heck didn't they make a trade like this when they were in real contention?

It really seems like when you think you may have some sort of idea on what the FO office is doing, they go and do something that completely goes against that though.

This pretty much sums up why I like this trade > https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/06/06/mlb-draft-high-school-pitchers-velocity

I put the over/under career WAR for Chase Petty at 2.5. It's possible that, with the advanced metrics on all kinds of body movement, first round high school pitchers, especially those who throw hard, have a higher boom rate than they did a decade ago. I'm willing to take that gamble.

Really good move.

There we’re 25 teams that passed on Petty and there is little data since to say they made a mistake. The history of the 26th pick produced one career star in Trammell and one very good career in Dave Henderson. Plesac was a good reliever for quite a while. Those are the three success stories in the 57 year history of pick 26. This is a very good trade. 

Count me in the group that likes this trade.  Petty is a great prospect, but when he was drafted we all admitted that high school pitchers are a high risk category.  I think he has a future, but one never knows.  Frankly, I thought it would cost more to get Gray as Petty is a few years away at best, but the Reds are interested in cutting costs and building for a future in 2 or 3 years the way it looks.  Is Gray a Robbie Ray?  Of course not.  We all wish the Twins would have signed a free agent AND added Gray and one other pitcher to have a quality rotation.  But they didn't.  Now the question will be "are the Twins finished?".  Rumor has it they are not.  Right now they still have Larnach,  Martin, one of the young pitchers, Arraez, Kepler, Miranda and a few others to dangle in a trade so the cupboard is not bare.  If they trade for one more and add Pineda, the rotation would look MUCH better.  I also liked that they added some young pitchers in both trades--can't have too many pitching prospects.

Yahoo! Yippee-Ki-Yay !! Wonderful !!! (In case you wondered, I like this deal. ) 

I am very pleased with this trade.  Gray is without a doubt a solid MLB pitcher -- likely won't win the CYA but also likely about as good as Berrios was last year.  We gave up a guy who was several years and several stages of development away from the big leagues -- IF he actually gets there.  I am pleased that they traded a player when his value was (likely artificially) high instead of waiting until the shine came off and he had no value.  We have a large number of young pitchers with potential and we just used some of that future potential to help us now.  I'm hoping that they aren't done making deals.  Let's re-tool and make a good run in 2022!  Go Twins!

Why risk a top SP prospect for just-above-mediocre SP services that could have easily been purchased in free agency? Not at all a fan of this move. May make 2022 marginally better, but at what cost?

I liked the Garver trade. This one, not so much.

FWIW, over on MLBTR, the response to the two trades break down like this:

• Garver for IKF = 65%ish say Rangers got the better side of that deal. 
• Petty for Gray = 99%ish say Twins got a steal. The worst comments say it is a fair deal. 

8 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Why risk a top SP prospect for just-above-mediocre SP services that could have easily been purchased in free agency?

There were no pitchers as good as Sonny Gray who signed for as little as Sonny Gray has left on his contract. None. Rodon just got 2/$44 which is basically double Gray's contract. Hell, Jon Gray signed for 4/$56.

22 minutes ago, The professor said:

It seems you don't understand that the Twins ownership would like our team to be like that of the Oakland A's or the Tampa Bay Rays. Spend the least amount of money on a product that can compete. What do you think our owners can spend money? It's not like they have ever or actually own a bank. 

Assumes facts not in evidence. If this were a true statement, we would not have signed Josh Donaldson (or Nelson Cruz for that matter). Coming off of a 101 win season, the Twins could have easily been seen as a competitive team without spending $22M on Donaldson. The "Pohlads are cheap" arguments are boring. Are we bottom 5 in spending? How has it been since we were?

I think this team's business model and market revenue can support a higher payroll than we have, but we're not Pitt, Balt, Miami, or Cle and haven't been for some time.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Honestly, I don't know what to make of this trade. Reports on Petty were glowing, but reports on prospects like Petty almost always are and we have no real competitive play to judge.

If the reports on Petty aren't overblown, he could be pitching as an ace at the MLB level in two years. More akin to what Gray was... rather than what he is today as Gray has trended downwards (and lost significant velocity). Petty was the first pitcher drafted by Falvey where I was becoming legitimately excited about him. My initial perception was raw hard "thrower" so I wasn't on board the Petty is an ace train. However, the reports made Petty seem like a natural pitcher who had just never needed to use his other pitches because of the elite velocity.

At this point, Gray is probably a 2.0-3.0 WAR mid/back rotation starter so trading Petty could be a colossal mistake. A good front office will never, ever give up a potentially elite prospect for middle of the road, short term MLB talent. 

What I want from this franchise is direction. The Garver trade does not make the Twins better this year in my opinion, and it doesn't really make them better in the future as Garver was controlled just as long as Kiner-Falefa. I'm not bullish on Jeffers at all and I'm awfully skeptical the difference between Kiner-Falefa and Palacios (who has earned a shot in my opinion) at shortstop is more than 1 WAR. The difference between Garver and Jeffers at catcher is probably 3 WAR and I don't view Gray as anything but an average starter the Twins could have signed.

The Twins might be filling holes for this season, but they're not a competitive team without massive ifs being resolved. 

There isn’t much difference between K-F and Palacios?  Seriously?  A year ago K-F was coming off a gold glove year at third base, whereas Tampa had released Palacios.  K-F started all year for Texas while Palacios was a pleasant surprise in AA.  We don’t know if Palacios will ever make those next two leaps to even get to the “show.”