Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

Hopefully we learned something by doing Hughes extension too early

I concur with this deal.

Wow- got a good, dependable starter for only 1 prospect- well played, Falvine.

I was originally ok with the trade. I thought Odorizzi was nice piece to complement the rest of rotation. But after reading the most recent Athletic article I look at this trade in a different light. The Twins #5 starters last year combine to have 54 starts and 8.66 ERA and -.2 f-wins above replacement. Adding Odorizzi can essentially push that junk at #5 out and put his numbers in their place. Add that to a 83 win team and I think you can add a handful of wins easily. A staff ace would be great but putting together a very solid staff from top to bottom is a good start.

My thoughts? Well, Ok. It should be better, I hope. Can't say it excites me. I think Correia, Pelfrey, etc. Still hoping to get excited with the real significant help to the starting rotation. Someone I don't have to try to talk myself, or read others, into pretending he is what he isn't, or just wants to be..... a consensus ace.

after excoriating them over the Sanchez debacle I must give proper credit to Falvine for the hornswoggling of TB on this deal

As much as I like the hornswoggling reference the debacle reference cancels it out

I think this a great trade.  Odorizzi could provide some very good results the next year or two.  I was encouraged by the article on him that the Tampa Bay Times did after his last start in 2017.  Odorizzi said he's never felt better as a pitcher and was excited to take the momentum he had in September into next year.  Time will tell.  

 

By the way, here is chart I found on "Beyond the Box Score" that shows pitching aging curves by total fWAR. Just thought it was interesting to see.  I would like to see this through 2017.  I also edited post to include 20+ game starter aging curves. 

 

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/4041081/Aging_2.pnghttp://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4041249/Aging_3.png

How much did the Cubs pay for Darvish again?

How much did the Cubs pay for Darvish again?

 
Those charts are pretty pointless to judge Darvish by. Your not isolating the guys who dominate at their peak from the ones who manage to put together a few decent season during that time frame before their decline kicks in. Including Nick Blackburn in the same dataset as Yu Darvish isn't going to tell you much.

I was originally ok with the trade. I thought Odorizzi was nice piece to complement the rest of rotation. But after reading the most recent Athletic article I look at this trade in a different light. The Twins #5 starters last year combine to have 54 starts and 8.66 ERA and -.2 f-wins above replacement. Adding Odorizzi can essentially push that junk at #5 out and put his numbers in their place. Add that to a 83 win team and I think you can add a handful of wins easily. A staff ace would be great but putting together a very solid staff from top to bottom is a good start.

At least you are realistic about him being a #5. We now have 1,2,5 sealed up, and we can hope some of the others on the roster land somewhere north of #5 this year. (And at least one of them probably will.)

Teams don't trade #2 pitchers, with 2 years of cheap team control for Jermaine Palacios.

It's already been posted in these threads that the facts don't line up with the perception of AL East the last couple years. Jake Odorizzi faced one of the easiest average opposing hitters in baseball last year.

And saying that people don't know what they are talking about, because they don't agree with your opinion really has no place on this site.

Your response to shs_59 sounds to me like your telling him he doesn't know what he's talking about.t

The argument is that the cost for Odorizzi was not steep because a) he is not good, or b ) the Rays really value Palacios (and thus the cost was in fact steep, c) Palacios is really good, or d) Rays were just shedding payroll.

To these arguments, I say:

a) maybe, time will tell how good he is. But if he isn’t, this isn’t something to get worked up over

b ) maybe, but even if so, why didn’t the Rays get more than Palacios, even if they think Palacios is the next Miguel Tejada

c) maybe, if so great, the Twins have a hugely deep farm system and are using it to improve a clear area of need

d) maybe, in which case the Twins lucked out, especially that the Rays didn’t shop him more extensively looking for a better deal.

In any event, I still like the trade, think they got a rotation upgrade with potential for upside for peanuts, and think it will work out as a win for the Twins.

Now, random note...was Odorizzi the name of the dog from Garfield?

How much did the Cubs pay for Darvish again?

Don't despair, his rate of decline will level off over the last four years.

Now, random note...was Odorizzi the name of the dog from Garfield?

Also, because I was bored and am not going grocery shopping in this muck:

 

Odorizzi threw more than 400 innings from 2014-2016 with both his ERA and FIP below 4 and a K/9 above 8. His poor 2017 (ERA/FIP > 4, fWAR < 2) has been much discussed. But it made me curious-who fit those criteria from 13-15 and had a poor 16.... and how'd they perform in 2017?

 

Turns out there were 12 pitchers who saw a similar dropoff after a recent track record of success. 8 of them threw 100+IP in 2017: Mike Fiers, Jordan Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, Sonny Gray, and the former Tiger/new Twin who shall not be named.

 

5 of these stories ended poorly, with 2017 being a worse season for the pitcher. 1 was a tiny bit more rosy as James Shields went from atrocious (5.85 ERA/6.01 FIP/-1.1 WAR) to... still bad (5.23/5.83/-0.2).

 

The two who succeeded: Corbin and Gray. These two, like Odorizzi, were the only ones from that set under 30 years old in 2017. There are certainly differences (Odorizzi's BABIP was much lower than any of the 8, Groundballers like Corbin/Gray fared much better than FBprone folks like [redacted], Shields, and Zimmerman) but Odorizzi's whiff rate and K/9 both stood out against that group.

 

The endpoints are aribtraryish and I've only looked at a year so nobody should read too much into this, other than "If you've had a track record of success and can miss bats, a bad season before you're 30 isn't a death sentence". I'd say "Who has bounceback seasons?" for pitchers like this would be an interesting place to look for anyone else with an itch to pop open Excel tonight though.

Thank you for your two posts. Insightful stuff. If snowfall is what it takes to get you to post, let it snow.