Twins 8, Blue Jays 6: Twins Win A Rubber Match Nail-Biter in Toronto

38 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

They aren't going to use Duran in the 9th when there are tough matchups?   Huh?  Who is a tough matchup for Duran?  I'd take a tough matchup for Duran vs any MLB hitter vs. Duffey.  

Duran should be the closer.  Period.  Against any matchup.  Occasionally used for 2 inning saves the way the Yankees used to use Mariano Rivera.

That’s not what he said. They are going to use Duran in high leverage situations, where you should be using your best BP pitcher. They are going to look at possible matchups and plan accordingly. If it’s the 9th, it’s the 9th. If it’s the 7th, it’s the 7th. If it’s one inning or two. The idea of a traditional closer, who only comes in to pitch the 9th is no longer a strict thing in baseball today. This isn’t a Baldelli thing or even a Twins thing, it’s a baseball thing. If Duran hadn’t been hit by a line drive yesterday, he would have been back out for the 9th. But, even so, when your team is ahead by 5 runs, you should be able to call on one of your ‘lesser’ pitchers to finish the job. Sheesh, we won. We won against a good team on a winning streak and took the wind out of their sails. We took 2 of 3 from them. We beat a pitcher yesterday who has been very good. And we did it with a decimated roster. That’s team effort from the players, managers and coaches. Well done!

34 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

 

I did.....I guess I still don't understand the theory.  If the tough matchup is in the 8th, you're going to trust anyone else in our bullpen to pitch the 9th?  That's my issue.  Pitching the 9th is a different animal, regardless of the matchup.  Duran can handle it.  I don't know if we have anyone else who can.......

Duran was likely going to get the 9th, too, then got hit by a pitch. There is no traditional closer in baseball anymore. That’s the game today.

3 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Smeltzer should have come back out for another inning. This crap of having a plan is only as good as the players that are trying to play it out and the guys they are playing against. NO plan is going to work out all the time and you have to have a reasonable plan B and C etc.. With the guys we had available yesterday where would we have turned to if the game had gone into extra innings? Did "the plan" take that into account? Who drew up the plan? Yesterday the Twins got lucky they added on some runs late. Otherwise it would just be another in a long list of blown bullpen decisions based on some stupid "plan".

Right. A stupid plan so stupid that we won. Right. Just dumb.

30 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

The angst is because we simply don’t have enough reliable relievers to continually get us 4-5 innings every single game. It’s unreasonable to continue to pull starters before they even START the 5th inning. Rocco’s plans assume that every reliever is going to get the job done cleanly and no one is going to be injured. Asking 4 or 5 mostly shaky relievers to do their job is asking for trouble. My god, starting pitchers have been “going around the order 3 times” for 100 years, now all of a sudden they can’t figure it out anymore. The red flag pitch count used to be 100 and now it’s…70?

Then when you do bring in relievers, everyone just has an inning regardless of how many pitches they throw? Jax threw 9 pitches and couldn’t go another? 

You wouldn't be impressed with a new manager's usage of pitchers either. This is the organization's strategy, not just Rocco's. If they fire Rocco they'd bring in another guy who also won't let his starters go through the lineup a 3rd time. It's not Rocco's plans, it's the FO. At least complain about the right stuff.

1 minute ago, Aggies7 said:

Can you source this claim?

The front office is Rocco's boss and he's been running things this way for 3 years and they haven't fired him or forced him to change. That's a pretty good place to start.

10 minutes ago, Karbo said:

As I said, we got lucky to add on those runs late. Or do you think that was part of the plan too?

I think they played a good game all around and beat a good team. Lots of things happen during a game … some we like, some we don’t. We won. That’s the bottom line, the goal. We can nitpick all we want about how it should have gone and say what they did was all wrong. But, we won so it couldn’t have been all wrong. 

10 minutes ago, djvang said:

It's becoming apparent that the way to handle Duffey is to remove him immediately when he gets a guy on base because then he just falls apart. 

This is something I’d think about. I don’t know who was ready or warmed up, but I guess because we had a 5-run lead they wanted to push him to work through it? But I’m glad he did eventually come out. I’m not sure I would have put him in, but with a 5-run lead, damn.

5 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Ok, so you can’t, got it. Interesting that the pitcher in question has been allowed to go 6 before. But this organizational strategy you claim exists must have just kicked in yesterday I guess 

So your belief is that the FO doesn't believe in pulling starters as quickly as Rocco does (you're on these threads after almost every game complaining about this, so don't try to sell this as a 1 off thing), but they've let him do it for 3+ years? That's the stance you want to take, but you're concerned about my sourcing? At any job you've ever had were you allowed to go for 3+ years doing things in a way that your bosses disliked and they didn't fire you or make you change? Seriously, it's time to step back and take a look at the claim you're making.

Yes, he's gone deeper when he was on, so has Ryan, it's almost like they change based on game situations and a whole bunch of factors you don't even know about to make different decisions based on certain overarching principles that are set by the FO as organizational norms. Did you know they measure their pitcher's release point on every pitch they throw in real time? Along with spin rate, velo, spin axis, and extension. Amongst other proprietary blends of stats along those lines that you'll literally never know about.

Just now, Aggies7 said:

You said it’s not fair to criticize the manager here, which is an absurd claim as is unless the FO is calling down to the dugout to tell him what to do, in game. So is it his call or not? Is he going to get scolded if he lets a guy go another inning? He’s let a lot of starters see the lineup the third time and he hasn’t been fired yet.. 

No, I said you wouldn't be happy with the next manager either because this is the way the FO wants things run. And then I explained that there's a whole bunch of stats and data that are used in game to make decisions based on a set of parameters that the FO has put in place.

17 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

They apparently aren’t that serious about wanting things run a certain way since literally the same exact pitcher has been allowed to go deeper into games. And rocco hasn’t been fired which is apparently the barometer for you. If it’s up to his discretion on when to pull guys based on velocity etc then who’s to say another manager wouldn’t be different? You can still make decisions that aren’t on a spreadsheet. “Complain about the right stuff” sounds a lot like “don’t criticize the manager”

They wouldn't hire a manager who didn't think this way is the right way to do things. This is the way the FO wants a staff run. It's weird that you point out that Rocco has let people go deeper yet your most often used complaint on these threads is that Rocco never lets starters go deeper.

The FO and Rocco meet daily. Every single day they talk about the strategy for that day and the games coming up. Rocco is the extension of the FO in the dugout. They hired him because he has the same thoughts on baseball strategy as them. They wouldn't go out and hire someone who thinks things should be done differently. They have a general range that they start looking to take a starter out in. It's then up to Rocco to make a decision on the exact moment based on the criteria range they've developed as an organization. The criteria includes the data points I already presented, plus whether or not they have an off day coming up, how the pitcher has been performing against the guys coming up, their desire to start guys in clean innings as often as possible, bullpen usage on previous dates, AAA pitcher usage from previous days, previous performance of certain pitchers vs certain hitters, the available bench players for the other team, and more that you'd never even think of. These things are all used in big picture pregame discussions before the general outline is given to the starter and pen arms so everybody knows the plan for the day. The pen arms are given a range of hitters that they'll be targeted for use against. The starter is given a general idea of how long their leash is that day. Then it's on Rocco during the game to make decisions on exactly when those changes happen based on a crazy number of factors.

1 hour ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Here is the problem I have and you've hit it on the head.  You say that Rocco changes his views or strategies on a game by game basis....depending on how things are going.  If that were the case, I'd be happy.  But Rocco lost me in Archer's last start vs. the Tigers....he went five innings and was at about 55 pitches.  He was pulled and the bullpen blew that game.  Afterwards, he's questioned about it and says something like "we had a plan....we were going to use Pagan for two and Duran for two and I didn't want to change that".....(that's not a direct quote but close).....and to me that's the problem  He doesn't adjust based on how the game is going.  Archer was cruising and yet he was pulled.  Rocco has a plan and seems to have very little feel for the game.  Smeltzer wasn't cruising yesterday but he was doing fine.  Had the 8-9 batters coming up.  The move made no sense.....other than the plan.

Exit velos given up by Smeltzer yesterday: 112.3 MPH (Springer HR), 100.4 Kirk GDP, 104.6 (Chapman groundout), 97 (Gurriel groundout), 106.1 (Bichette lineout), 100.4 (Vlad single), 108.9 (Kirk HR). He gave up an average exit velo of 93.3 yesterday in 4 innings. He faced 16 batters and gave up exit velos of 97 or higher to 7 of them. That's 44% of batters he'd faced that hit the ball incredibly hard. He also walked 2 guys. So 56% of guys he faced he walked or they tattooed the ball. I'd argue he wasn't "doing fine," and he was struggling, but getting lucky that they were hitting the ball at guys.

Yes, they go into every game with a plan. Every team does. You guys seem to think they're just winging it and it's just up to Rocco and his "feel for the game" to make decisions. That's not accurate. Every major league organization has a plan going into every game and a big picture plan for managing their staff as a whole. Now there's some tweaks and differences in all of them, and they base them on different things, but they all have them. It's why many of us say managers aren't all that important in winning/losing games. A game here or there maybe, but nothing like some suggest. No FO is going to hire a manager who manages in a way they don't like or sees strategy drastically differently. So, again, firing Rocco wouldn't lead to drastically different pen management. At all.

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They hired him because he has the same thoughts on baseball strategy as them.

This was actually stated at the press conference announcing Baldelli as the new manager. Not word for word, but this is what they said ... the like-minded ness in approach.