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  • Twins 7, Tigers 1: Twins Complete Sweep, Correa Comes up Clutch


    Seth Stohs

    The winning streak now stands at seven games as the Twins topped the Tigers to complete the sweeps of two AL Central competitors at Target Field over the past week. See how Carlos Correa came up big, and Gilberto Celestino played a big part in another win. 

    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA TODAY Sports

    Box Score
    SP Bailey Ober: 3.2 IP,6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K (73 pitches, 49 strikes (67.1%)
    Home Runs: None 
    Top 3 WPA: Trevor Larnach (.150), Gilberto Celestino (.141), Cody Stashak (.096)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png
    Pregame Notes/Lineup Decisions (with Results)

    #1: Facing left-hander Tarik Skubal, Rocco Baldelli started Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler

    How it went? Against Skubal, Arraez and Kepler each went 0-for-3. Larnach, however, went 2-for-2. 

    #2: After DHing on Tuesday and playing center field on Wednesday, Byron Buxton was not in the starting lineup on Thursday afternoon. Gilberto Celestino, who is certainly a candidate to be sent back to St. Paul when rosters are reduced after Sunday’s games, is making his second start in center field in the past three games. 

    How it went? Celestino reached base in each of his first three plate appearances. He had an RBI infield single in his first at-bat. He laid down a nice bunt in his second plate appearance and reached on a throwing error. In his third at-bat, he hit a 100 mph line drive down the right-field line for a double. With Celestino, the defense is always solid. In addition, he ranged to the gap to make a very nice sliding catch in the 8th inning.

    #3: There were hopes that Gary Sanchez could start behind the plate on Thursday. He was not quite ready so Ryan Jeffers started his third straight game behind the plate, including the day game after the night game.  

    How it went? Well, Jeffers was 0-for-4 with four strikeouts, but he did a nice job behind the plate.  

    Miguel Sano has a minor knee strain. That is why he is not starting against the left-hander and Arraez is back at first base. 

    Ober Labors, Leaves with Injury 

    Bailey Ober clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Thursday afternoon. It’s not that he was bad. He wasn’t. He threw strikes at a good rate (67%). He missed 12 bats. But he really had to work to strand base runners. He gave up six hits and two walks and somehow worked his way out of those situations and gave up just one run. 

    Unfortunately, Ober left the game early. With two outs in the top of the fourth inning, right after a balk, he gave up a single that gave the Tigers their first (and only) run. After the pitch, Ober hobbled off the mound, grabbed his upper right leg, and bent at the waist. Clearly, he was not going to proceed. Cody Stashak came in and stranded another Tigers runner. Tyler Duffey worked a scoreless inning. 

    Griffin Jax ended the game with three strong innings to record the save. 

    The team, a couple of innings later, confirmed that it was right groin tightness for Ober.   

    Correa’s Biggest Hit… So far. 
    Yeah, I know that his home run was crushed and immensely impressive, but Carlos Correa came through with the biggest hit of his short Twins career. Leading 2-1 in the bottom of the fifth inning, Correa came up with the bases loaded. In his two previous at-bats, he had exit velocities of 95 and 106 mph. On a 3-2 count, Correa hit a ball 108 mph toward the gap in left-center field, over Willi Castro’s head. With the Tigers’ fourth error of the game tacked on, the bases were emptied and the Twins led 5-1. Gio Urshela followed with a single to left field for a 6-1 Twins lead.  

    To this point, Correa is hitting the ball really hard, as you can see from the top row in the chart below. However, it appears that he is hitting a lot of ground balls. He also came into Thursday’s game having struck out 32.8% of the time. For his career, Correa has struck out just under 21% of his plate appearances. In 2021, he struck out just over 18% of the time. In other words, he's going to be just fine. 

    image.jpeg

    Three hits and four balls hit over 100 mph on this day should help him relax and start putting up the numbers that he has over his career.  

    In addition, despite his offensive woes early in the season, Correa's defense has been consistently terrific. 

    What’s Next? 
    The Twins will travel to Tampa to take on the Rays this weekend. Pitching matchups for the series include: 

    • Friday 6:10: Dylan Bundy (3-0, 0.59 ERA) vs RHP Corey Kluber (0-1, 3.68 ERA)
    • Saturday 3:10: Chris Archer  (0-0, 3.18 ERA) vs LHP Shane McClanahan (1-1, 2.45 ERA) 
    • Sunday 12:10: Chris Paddack (0-2, 3.68 ERA) vs TBD

    Postgame Interviews 

    Bullpen Usage 

     

    SUN MON TUE WED THUR TOT
                 
    Winder 61 0 0 0 0 61
    Jax 0 0 10 0 46 56
    Thielbar 0 0 27 0 0 27
    Duffey 0 0 19 0 8 27
    Pagán 0 0 23 0 0 23
    Smith 13 0 0 10 0 23
    Coulombe 0 0 0 20 0 20
    Duran 18 0 0 0 0 18
    Stashak 0 0 0 0 18 18

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    It is hard not to be optimistic. But we have to look at who we beat and be ready for some tough times and challenges. I really like celestino coming through as well as seeing Correa starting to get hits.

    If Ober is hurt we need to keep winder in the rotation.

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    On Baily Ober: To me he now looks like a good middle rotation starter. Not a potential shutout guy (yet), but good now and potential to get significantly better, given his good poise on the mound. 

    On Griffin Jax: This guy might have a higher ceiling than Ober. His slider is better than Ryan's, but his fastball needs more precision if he can't add movement, like a cutter. If Jax can pick the corners with his heater, he could be a good closer, a-la Joe Nathan. Nail the corners at 94 +, then slice 'em up with a power slider. It's like having 5 different pitches to worry about. On the other hand, if Jax continues to be a good multi-inning reliever, maybe he transitions to starter. 

    On Josh Winder: On some teams he's already your #4 or 5 starter. Not quite as precise or consistent as Ober, but lots of potential. Definitely belongs in the pen for now, another long reliever. This is a good development plan for him.

    On Jhoan Duran: OMG, what to do... Hondo heat, splinker at 96, and a hard slider. It screams "closer" or rally stopper, but he's got serious starter potential, too. Keep him in the pen for now, but USE HIM a lot. Get him used to high-leverage situations for later in his career. Especially, teach him to get guys out with his secondary pitches, by which I mean sliders, curves and changes. Mentor: Dylan Bundy. 

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    3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    Which Jeffers are you talking about? 

    Jeffers is good catcher: appears to call a good game, sets a nice target and does an excellent job with pitch framing, and blocks the plate pretty well. He's not the greatest at controlling the running game, but he's not awful at it either. And right now he's hitting just fine: OPS+ of 117. Good power, solid eye at the plate. (He's also significantly out-playing Mitch Garver so far) Weird take, mah dude.

    Today's at BatsFull Player Profile
    • 2nd: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 4th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 6th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 7th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
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    I love the wins just as much as the next individual but let's stipulate that no team has ever deserved to be swept as much as these Tigers. In the 4-run inning they threw the ball into the back of a running bunter TWICE IN A ROW. You all saw how the Twins had a walk-off the-other-team-made-an-error in the first game (that was the second game they won this way during this streak). Practically every time the Tigers touch the ball, they bobble it.  It is a sight to behold. They may be sniffing glue.

    Don't call me a killjoy. You should definitely still enjoy it. It's baseball and when things go your way, you take it, because when things don't go your way you lose and it's no fun.

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    9 hours ago, RpR said:
    Today's at BatsFull Player Profile
    • 2nd: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 4th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 6th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 7th: Jeffers struck out swinging.

    So any time a player has a bad game, they're trash now? If they have a good game are they suddenly amazing? But regardless...everything (including the uninformed eye test) says that Jeffers is a fine catcher. So even if we accept that his bat is trash (and I don't, the bad game not withstanding), the first half of your premise doesn't hold up.

    Hells bells, man: literally the day before Jeffers went 2-3 with a double and home run. The last seven days (on the very page you linked) shows Jeffers was 5-16 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs. Stop cherry-picking out one bad game at the plate to try and bury a player that you seem to hate for...reasons?

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    10 hours ago, RpR said:
    Today's at BatsFull Player Profile
    • 2nd: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 4th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 6th: Jeffers struck out swinging.
    • 7th: Jeffers struck out swinging.

    jmlease said "Hells bells, man: literally the day before Jeffers went 2-3 with a double and home run. The last seven days (on the very page you linked) shows Jeffers was 5-16 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs. Stop cherry-picking out one bad game at the plate to try and bury a player that you seem to hate for...reasons?"

     

    I'll add that Jeffer's block of that spiked pitch the other day allowed the Twins to steal that game. Looking at all the data points to one helluva catcher. C'mon RpR ya gotta be kidding, right? Just sitting there somewhere in the middle of Minnesota chuckling while you push all our buttons ?

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    5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

     If they have a good game are they suddenly amazing? p.

    Hells bells, man: literally the day before Jeffers went 2-3 with a double and home run. The last seven days (on the very page you linked) shows Jeffers was 5-16 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs. Stop cherry-picking out one bad game at the plate to try and bury a player that you seem to hate for...reasons?

    You said it not me, but he is simply not good; they should have kept Rortvedt.

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    22 minutes ago, RpR said:

    I have followed the Twins since they came to Minnesota; was fortunate enough to meet some said same year.

    I know who and what I like, just like others here.

    You may know what you like, but that doesn't qualify you as an expert either. You're always ripping on people but glorify the superstars who are struggling as well because you KNOW they're going to break out. But the younger guys who are still trying to find their way get no reprieve. You want instant superstardom or just get rid of them and bring in the next batch.

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    1 minute ago, Schmoeman5 said:

    You may know what you like, but that doesn't qualify you as an expert either. You're always ripping on people but glorify the superstars who are struggling as well because you KNOW they're going to break out. But the younger guys who are still trying to find their way get no reprieve. You want instant superstardom or just get rid of them and bring in the next batch.

    I am as much an expert as any one posting here who is not involved in the business.

    I like what I like and you like what you like.

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