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  • Twins 6, White Sox 3: Buxton's 22nd Homer, Arraez 3-hit Night Fuels Extra-Inning Win


    Nate Palmer

    To kick off an important series in Chicago, Arraez showed up with three hits and the most important in extra innings. Buxton hit another home run. The combination of the two helped the Twins record another win against an AL Central opponent.  

    Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    SP: Dylan Bundy: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (58 pitches, 41 strikes (70.7%))
    Home Runs: Byron Buxton (22)
    Top 3 WPA: Luis Arraez (0.268), Byron Buxton (0.136), Dylan Bundy (0.135)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png.1ae5121d5d20ed65deed4b424fc9e4e9.png

    For some time this offseason, Twins fans were under the belief that Johnny Cueto was close to becoming a Twin, adding an interesting wrinkle to Monday night’s game. Coming into the game, Cueto had been pitching relatively well with a 3.33 ERA over 54 innings pitched coming into the night. 

    Through four innings, Cueto was able to hold the Twins from scoring even though he surrendered some hits and allowed four walks. After an ample missed opportunity in the first inning, it almost looked like Cueto had the Twins locked into one of those nights where the offense would go absent. Until the fifth rolled around. 

    Buxton’s feelin’ 22
    Luis Arraez led off the game in the first inning with a double. In the fifth, he hit another. In the first, Buxton missed the opportunity to bring Arraez around, but he did not waste any time regarding the same situation in the fifth. Buxton got a hold of a Cueto offspeed pitch and planted it in the left-field seats for his 22nd home run of the season. 

    Bundy completes a solid five innings
    While Cueto kept the Twins at bay until the fifth inning, Dylan Bundy was also pitching well. Bundy produced 12 swings and misses while striking out six White Sox batters. The Twins starter also only allowed one walk. There were some loudly hit balls, and thankfully the Twins defense came through for Bundy multiple times to keep runners off the bases and runs off the scoreboard. 

    The one ball that the defense couldn’t do anything about was in the second inning off of the bat of Jose Abreu. Abreu tagged Bundy for a home run that just missed Max Kepler’s glove and landed on the other side of the fence instead. 

    Jax struggles in his second inning
    The Twins called on Griffin Jax to relieve Bundy to start the sixth inning. After cruising through the sixth, he was asked to continue into the seventh. The seventh would prove to be a very tough inning for Jax to navigate. After a potentially missed hit-by-pitch call, Abreu was once again a thorn in the Twins side and reached base by way of a double. Gavin Sheets then occupied first base after being hit by a pitch of his own out of the hand of Jax. 

    With those runners on first and second, Yoan Moncada came to the plate with no outs and singled the ball to left field. That single allowed Abreu to come around and score as the White Sox tied the game up 2-2. 

    The seventh inning could have been disastrous if it wasn’t for a big break in the form of the Twins franchise 16th triple play. AJ Pollock gave a Jax pitch an excellent ride to right-center field, where Buxton, in a majestic way, tracked the fly ball down. With Adam Engel and Moncada running with no expectation of the ball being caught, once Buxton got the ball into the infield, Gio Urshela could make easy work of outs two and three. 

     

    Hendriks, Graveman prove to be too tough of a task
    The Twins saw firsthand why the White Sox were picked to have one of the best bullpens entering the 2022 season. Liam Hendriks came into the eighth inning fresh off the IL and struck out the side. He sent Correa, Kepler, and Polanco all packing. While Nick Gordon was able to get on base against Kendall Graveman, that was all the Twins were able to do against the White Sox reliever. Setting the scene for Emilio Pagan to once again pitch in relief for the Twins with a walk-off opportunity ripe for the taking for the opposing team. 

    Pagan holds the ninth
    Every Twins fan collectively had nightmarish-type visions of what happened against Cleveland as Pagan took the mound in the bottom of the ninth. For one night, Pagan righted the ship. With two-outs, danger lurked as the right-hander walked Engel to bring Moncada to the plate. 

    Engel attempted to steal second base off of Pagan, but Ryan Jeffers had other thoughts as he made a fantastic throw to second. It was met by an equally incredible tag by Carlos Correa. Initially, Engel was called safe, but after a challenge, the call was overturned to end the ninth inning.  

    Arraez, Twins bats with extra-inning magic
    The Twins began the tenth inning with Gilberto Celestino on second base. Arraez would have the first crack at bringing the speedy Celestino around to score. There may not have been a more perfect setup for the Twins. With a 2-1 count, Arraez took a Joe Kelly curveball to center field to bring Celestino around to give the Twins a 3-2 lead. 

    Jorge Polanco would add to the lead with a bases-loaded sacrifice fly that moved every runner up and plated Arraez. It was then Alex Kirilloff's turn to get a hit off of Kelly as he sent the ball through the left side of the infield to score two runs and increase the Twins lead to 6-2. Those runs allowed Jhoan Duran to come on to finish off the game. After allowing the lineup to turn over and Time Anderson to hit again, Duran ultimately only allowed the spotted runner on second to come around to score and cut the winning score down to 6-3. 

    What’s Next? 
    Tomorrow evening the Twins will get set for game two of this series against the White Sox. Chris Archer will toe the rubber for the Twins as he looks to continue his string of solid performances and improve upon his 3.08 ERA. The Twins could have a challenging task ahead of them in White Sox right-handed starter Michael Kopech. Kopech is only 2-5 on the season but will bring to the table a 2.78 ERA. 

    Postgame Interview

     

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Duffey 28 0 0 0 13 41
    Cotton 0 0 38 0 0 38
    Moran 20 0 0 18 0 38
    Pagán 0 0 10 0 18 28
    Jax 0 0 0 0 26 26
    Duran 0 0 0 0 20 20
    Thielbar 0 12 0 0 0 12
    Megill 0 0 0 0 0 0
     

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    1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

    Concur.

    100 percent a tag play for the lead runner. 100 percent. 

    Concur on the concurrence.

    I mean, there are a few seconds for the runner to work with, so use them wisely.  Maybe first instinct is to take off and/or go partway, but gotta keep an eye on the ball and fielder and be prepared to reverse course and tag.  You also have the luxury of a uniformed team representative, standing a few feet away from you in foul territory, who is permitted to also judge and give you some guidance, such as "no no no!" (unless that sounds too much like "go go go").

    The pitiable part, for these runners and the respective base coaches, is that their eye is apparently not as adept at tracking the ball (and Buxton's progress toward it) as Buxton himself.

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    I am glad the Twins are where they are and they find a way to get it done. There are 11 other ALC teams that would gladly change places with theTwins. That’s why we play the game. 

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    So the decision is entirely based on numbers, which is what I’m hearing here and what people have an issue with. There is no need for a manager then. The front office can program a robot to decide what they want from each individual player. The computer can make all the calls. I’m fine with that. Let’s be the first team to not have a human manager. How cool would that be? We could even dress him up like Rosey the Robot from the jetsons, but with a twins hat on. Even better, it could be the robot from lost in space, that way it’s arms can flail when a decision doesn’t work out. You’d just not be able to spray champagne on it in the event that we win a pennant. Attendance would skyrocket!

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    4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

    Actually, no, it wasn’t defensible, in my (and Ozzie Guillen’s) opinion. You wait to tag. If he doesn’t get to it, it’s likely you score anyway. And if he does get to it, you end up on 3rd with only 1 out.

    I completely agree it wasn't defensible for Engel to not be tagging. And Moncada can't go more than two-thirds of the way.

    Which makes it's one of the rare times I agree with Ozzie!

    And to those trying to defend it, I say you have to know who the outfielder is. 

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    21 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

    So the decision is entirely based on numbers, which is what I’m hearing here and what people have an issue with. There is no need for a manager then. The front office can program a robot to decide what they want from each individual player. The computer can make all the calls. I’m fine with that. Let’s be the first team to not have a human manager. How cool would that be? We could even dress him up like Rosey the Robot from the jetsons, but with a twins hat on. Even better, it could be the robot from lost in space, that way it’s arms can flail when a decision doesn’t work out. You’d just not be able to spray champagne on it in the event that we win a pennant. Attendance would skyrocket!

    Oh, come ... seriously ... you don't think there can be any middle ground here, that it's only completely one or the other? These arguments to the extreme isn't what anyone is saying. I get that this is very emotional for you, but just because it wouldn't be what you'd do doesn't mean it was entirely done by numbers and the manager can be replaced by a robot. Yes, the numbers are a big influence to the game plan in baseball, like it or not, but not everything goes according to plan and none of us knows what gets changed along the way because of the situation. I'd guess that they already planned for a series of different scenarios. Maybe there is 'less gut' to it than what you want, but I'd guess it's not none, in the same way that it's never anything but the numbers and a robot replacement would be just as good.

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    Nice win! This team can flat out hit.

    Baserunning for Dum Dums!  Pinch runner comes in and completely loses his mind lol.

    I do agree that was definitely the difference in the game. Someone could go look at win expectancy and compare "tie game, top of eighth" to what it should have been, first and third one out, bottom of seventh.

    Another fun fact - Remember that so-called "4th out" play from last week between Pittsburgh and Washington? (link)

    Well two big IFs: I think IF there had been one out instead of zero outs, and IF Engel had for some reason kept running and crossed home, he would have gotten there before Urshela tagged the trail runner and the run would have counted - the same situation as that other play. I think. But don't quote me. Just a fun observation.

    Let's see how the White Sox respond and if the Twins can tease out a good plan for how to pitch to them tonight. The White Sox seem like a team that will hang their heads. Meanwhile, another strength for this Twins team is its rebounding and resilience. If the Twins had run into this triple play, I really think they would just put it behind them and move on. 

     

     

     

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    17 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    Oh, come ... seriously ... you don't think there can be any middle ground here, that it's only completely one or the other? These arguments to the extreme isn't what anyone is saying. I get that this is very emotional for you, but just because it wouldn't be what you'd do doesn't mean it was entirely done by numbers and the manager can be replaced by a robot. Yes, the numbers are a big influence to the game plan in baseball, like it or not, but not everything goes according to plan and none of us knows what gets changed along the way because of the situation. I'd guess that they already planned for a series of different scenarios. Maybe there is 'less gut' to it than what you want, but I'd guess it's not none, in the same way that it's never anything but the numbers and a robot replacement would be just as good.

    I’m obviously exaggerating for a bit of comedic effect, but it’s really not far off from what some people think. How many times have you read posts here that say managers are worth many wins, they don’t do much, etc etc? And now this total embracement of any move that the numbers agree with leads me to believe that maybe we SHOULD try a robot manager. Let’s honor bill veeck and be totally innovative and pioneering!

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    37 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    Nice win! This team can flat out hit.

    Baserunning for Dum Dums!  Pinch runner comes in and completely loses his mind lol.

    I do agree that was definitely the difference in the game. Someone could go look at win expectancy and compare "tie game, top of eighth" to what it should have been, first and third one out, bottom of seventh.

    Another fun fact - Remember that so-called "4th out" play from last week between Pittsburgh and Washington? (link)

    Well two big IFs: I think IF there had been one out instead of zero outs, and IF Engel had for some reason kept running and crossed home, he would have gotten there before Urshela tagged the trail runner and the run would have counted - the same situation as that other play. I think. But don't quote me. Just a fun observation.

    Let's see how the White Sox respond and if the Twins can tease out a good plan for how to pitch to them tonight. The White Sox seem like a team that will hang their heads. Meanwhile, another strength for this Twins team is its rebounding and resilience. If the Twins had run into this triple play, I really think they would just put it behind them and move on. 

     

     

     

    I don't think his run would have counted. In this case, tagging Moncada was the second out, stepping on 2nd the 3rd out. 

    There was no time out, the ball was in play the entire time.

    There was no needed "4th out."

    The two plays weren't similar.

    edit: I just re-read your post and noticed you said "1 out."

    In the immortal words of Emily Littela, "Never mind."

    In the also immortal words of Bert Blyleven, "I ****** that all up."

     

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    17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    I don't think his run would have counted. In this case, tagging Moncada was the second out, stepping on 2nd the 3rd out. 

    There was no time out, the ball was in play the entire time.

    There was no needed "4th out."

    The two plays weren't similar.

    edit: I just re-read your post and noticed you said "1 out."

    In the immortal words of Emily Littela, "Never mind."

    In the also immortal words of Bert Blyleven, "I ****** that all up."

     

    I also asked you not to quote me! ?

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    1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

    I’m obviously exaggerating for a bit of comedic effect, but it’s really not far off from what some people think. How many times have you read posts here that say managers are worth many wins, they don’t do much, etc etc? And now this total embracement of any move that the numbers agree with leads me to believe that maybe we SHOULD try a robot manager. Let’s honor bill veeck and be totally innovative and pioneering!

    I’m game. I’m also setting the over/under of 0.5 games before someone complains about the robot and hammering the under. 

    Tonight, I’d like all 9 of our players to bunt in their 1st PA. Damn the numbers, I’ve got a gut feeling at least one of them will end up a hit. 

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    19 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    I’m game. I’m also setting the over/under of 0.5 games before someone complains about the robot and hammering the under. 

    Tonight, I’d like all 9 of our players to bunt in their 1st PA. Damn the numbers, I’ve got a gut feeling at least one of them will end up a hit. 

    Yes I can see how leaving the starter in for the 6th inning ay 58 pitches is akin to bunting everyone the first time through the order ?

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    3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Tonight, I’d like all 9 of our players to bunt in their 1st PA. Damn the numbers, I’ve got a gut feeling at least one of them will end up a hit. 

    I actually wanted this to be the plan whenever Sabathia was on the mound opposing us. Someone pointed out that batters would likely get hit pretty quick into that plan.

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    2 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

    Yes I can see how leaving the starter in for the 6th inning ay 58 pitches is akin to bunting everyone the first time through the order ?

    I think his extreme idea was very much akin to your overly dramatic plan of replacing the managers with robots. Why does everyone need to take an extreme pov?

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    1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

    I think his extreme idea was very much akin to your overly dramatic plan of replacing the managers with robots. Why does everyone need to take an extreme pov?

    But people have literally said here that managers are overrated and don’t contribute much to wins/losses. Seen it posted many a time. So I don’t think I’m that far off.

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    12 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

    But people have literally said here that managers are overrated and don’t contribute much to wins/losses. Seen it posted many a time. So I don’t think I’m that far off.

    The way I see it ... it's a team sport. I don't think the manager alone is responsible for that much outcome difference. But, what a manager does can impact how players execute their jobs, i.e. ... keeping the clubhouse in good stead, and from every interview I've heard, the players give him lots of props for that. How that impacts wins and losses ... I don't think you can compute that exactly, unless the manager is awful in that regard. And even then, sometimes player personalities just cannot be overcome, either. As for game execution, it's primarily up to the players. How the manager communicates the plans is a factor, but, again, I think from everything I've heard from players, he does a very good job of that. I think together they win, together they lose, so no, I don't point a finger and blame him for specific losses or wins, except to poke a few who give him blame while giving no credit. I just don't think you can have it both ways. I do question some of the decisions, but there are many people on here who consistently say, 'This one's on Rocco' or 'They won in spite of him.' A LOT say this. I just don't think that's true. It's not that manager could be a robot and that wouldn't matter, but I don't think he's as responsible for wins and losses directly, at least not on his own. I mean, one poster here constructed their own measurement, called it manager WAR and basically gave Rocco a minus point for every game they thought Rocco lost for the team, and claimed it was legitimate because of how many games they've watched in their lifetime. I just think that's completely ridiculous. I don't think the manager is responsible in that manner. <shrug> We can agree to disagree on this, but how you and others put such specific responsibility on the manager for losses just isn't correct, imo. Yeah, he's the easy figure head to point a finger at, but ultimately, I don't really think that's fair.

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    On 7/5/2022 at 9:01 AM, wabene said:

    That is a good question and one I ponder as well. I believe if they are going to protect the starters to such an extent, then they need more multi inning appearances from the pen. Of course then that complicates pen usage. I was a little surprised they pulled Bundy, but it's Bundy. If it had been Gray, Ryan or Winder they would've run with it. You gotta have the horses.

    All I'm saying is that's poor planning on the part of our management team. The same team that keeps saying they have a plan. As it turns out they probably knew Archer was a no go but even at that IMO they could have possibly saved an inning or two from the pen which as we all know has been drastically over worked due to so many short starts. 

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    On 7/5/2022 at 9:35 AM, chpettit19 said:

    Because he's trying to put the team in the best position possible to win the game. If it weren't such a close game Bundy would've been allowed to go. But in a close game you play the odds and the odds very clearly say taking Bundy out gives you the better chance to win. Which they did. 

    Winder is in Chicago on the taxi squad and could be activated today to eat multiple innings out of the pen. They knew that before yesterday's game since he was with them then. Is it possible that they had a plan of "if it's close take Bundy out and use the pen since that's our best odds and we'll activate an extra starter for Tuesday if we need to, but if it's a blowout let Bundy go as long as possible and save the pen arms for Tuesday?" I'm not saying Winder is going to be activated, but it's a possibility.

    Oh, and they have an off day Thursday. Then a 3 game series before another off day. They have plenty of time to rest arms.

    IMO warm the pen and let him go until he gets in any kind of trouble. Save the pen if you can.

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