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  • Twins 5, Tigers 4: Urshela Comes Through as Twins Walkoff Tigers 


    Nate Palmer

    The Minnesota Twins took the lead early on a Max Kepler grand slam. After letting the Tigers back into the game, it took a 9th inning walk-off single from Gio Urshela to take game one of the series. 

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    Box Score
    SP: Chris Archer: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (72 pitches, 46 strikes (63.9%))
    Home Runs: Max Kepler (6)
    Top 3 WPA: Max Kepler (0.275), Kyle Garlick (0.232), Emilio Pagan (0.230)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png.75b6086452c23b21e4ba4e73132bd9de.png

    Archer four innings of bend don’t break
    In the offseason, Chris Archer was picked up to be the Twins 5th starter. That said, Archer has since become one of the most available arms for the Twins, even if it is for only four innings at a time. The short outings still often leave the Twins in a spot to win more often than not. 

    The journey there can be bumpy. Monday night, that came in the way of three hits and two walks and scoring threats in three of the four innings Archer completed. If it weren’t for Daz Cameron’s speed beating out a double play, Archer likely would have put up a scoreless outing. The difficulty with the short outings is that it means the bullpen must be able to pick Archer up. More on that later. 

    “Checked then Wrecked” 
    You have probably heard the patented phrase “bloop and a blast.” The Twins put together a first inning that resulted in a check-swing single from Jorge Polanco to load the bases—followed by an absolute bomb from Max Kepler for a grand slam to give the Twins and Archer an early 4-0 lead. 

    Monday night’s grand slam was Kepler’s sixth on the season. A season in which Kepler is reestablishing himself as a reliable offensive threat in the Twins lineup. Coming into Monday evening, he carried a career-best 136 WRC+. 

    Chinks in the bullpen armor
    The bullpen has, time and time again in 2022, shut down opposing lineups. Monday night, the Tigers tested that ability was tested, and the results were not favorable. Griffin Jax came into the game to begin the 5th inning. In that inning, Jax let up a home run to Jonathan Schoop. Then in the 6th, Eric Haase was able to drive in a second run against Jax cutting the Twins lead down to one. 

    Even the seemingly untouchable Joe Smith was scored on Monday night. This time Schoop was the one on base after his own one-out double and driven in by a Miguel Cabrera single. Smith was only to record one out in his appearance and was chased from the game after allowing three hits and striking out one. 

    Pagan steadies the ship
    Emilio Pagan has created some interesting moments at the backend of games, but he came up big right on Monday night when the Twins needed it. Not only did Pagan shut down the Tigers in the eight. The Twins also called on to take on the ninth. While Pagan allowed one hit, he also struck out four batters. Including Schoop and Cabrera, who caused trouble for the Twins bullpen earlier in the game. Pagan likely won't be mentioned in headlines, but he came up big for the Twins. 

    Urshela with heroics for the second straight game 
    After allowing the Tigers back into the game and tying the score up at four, the Twins had to rally in the bottom of the ninth. Kepler, who already had the important grand slam in the first inning, took a vital walk to lead off the inning. With a lefty in Andrew Chafin on the mound, Rocco Baldelli turned to his bench and lefty masher Kyle Garlick. Garlick promptly hit a single to the outfield which advanced Kepler to third base. On night after Garlick homered off of a righty, he continues to show how elite he is when facing lefties.  

    After a Sanchez pop-out, Gio Urshela came to the plate. Urshela has been one of many Twins that has been bit by the double-play grounder bug. With Garlick on first, that result had a strong chance as one of the Twins bottom of the ninth outcomes. Instead, Urshela was able to hit a grounder up the middle with enough speed that the Tigers couldn't handle it and allowed Kepler to score the game's winning run. 

    Two incredible and exciting wins in the row take the Twins to five straight wins as they try to extend their AL Central lead. 

     

    What’s Next? Tuesday, the Twins will send Sonny Gray to the mound for his sixth start of the season. He will look to get the Twins a win and improve upon his already solid 3.48 ERA. The Tigers will send rookie Beau Brieske to the mound. The righty sits mid-90s with his fastball and mixes in a changeup and slider, but has been hit pretty hard to this point in his young career. We will see if the Twins can exploit that Tuesday.

    Postgame Interview

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    - THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT
                 
    Jax 0 18 0 0 33 51
    Pagán 0 19 0 0 28 47
    Cano 0 0 0 38 0 38
    Smith 0 0 21 0 17 38
    Duran 0 16 0 17 0 33
    Duffey 0 18 0 14 0 32
    Megill 0 0 0 31 0 31
    Thielbar 0 0 18 0 3 21
    Stashak 0 0 18 0 IL 18

     

     

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    Archer is mechanically inconsistent. His pitches are too. He falls off the mound. He falls over himself. Those things should be fixed. We need them to be fixed. The bullpen needs them to be fixed. 

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    Being a long-time Twins fan, I hate to give my fellow fans hope. However, this 2022 squad is beginning to look like one of the highest quality teams in the league. I realize there are others, so I have refrained from blurting "World Series" to most people, other than one old buddy, who chuckles wistfully, as you might expect. 

    They're pretty close to having the pitching, and they still have a couple minor leaguers, Balazovic and Canterino, that could do well. However, this is a bullpen-dependent pitching staff, like the one KC used several years ago to win it all. That means they must solidify the pen. 

    In the field, they have a couple superstars, and several guys that are playing like stars, at least for now. Kepler may be a key, if he can keep riding his hot streak against lefties. Celestino could be absolutely vital if Buxton continues to be fragile. Never enough pitching, never too much good hitting.

    Computer tip for the day: Don't spray foamy glass cleaner directly on your laptop keyboard. I thought my PC was inhabited by an evil demon for the next several hours. All those little short circuits trying to type my PIN for me... ?

    Tip 2: Compressed air helps somewhat. Or just sit the machine in front of a fan and walk away for a while.

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    4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    Love the win, but Archer and Bundy are really putting pressure on the BP.  I looked at the BP chart 33,28,31, and 38 Pitches by BP arms the last two days.  This is not sustainable and Archer's tightrope 4 innings is not going to go well in June when the opposition is stronger.  It is a concern - I know from another poster that this is not 1975, but I still think we need starters to go 6 or 7.  We are coming to a reduction to 13 pitchers.  Who goes?  BP arms are used regularly, Archer, Bundy, etc every six days.

    In a pregame interview Archer sure sounded like he wanted to pitch longer. Pulled last night under 80 pitches. Perhaps Rocco or Wes noticed something that I didn't see (after all that's why they get paid) but it sure seemed like he could have gone another inning.

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    29 minutes ago, Karbo said:

    In a pregame interview Archer sure sounded like he wanted to pitch longer. Pulled last night under 80 pitches. Perhaps Rocco or Wes noticed something that I didn't see (after all that's why they get paid) but it sure seemed like he could have gone another inning.

    It looked to me like Archer was fairly lucky to get through 4. I think it was exactly the right move.

    But I've always been a "better too early than too late" guy.

    It's one of the things I feel Rocco does very well. 

    By comparison, I grew to hate watching Molitor trudge out to the mound with a desultory look on his face to take the ball from his starter AFTER said starter had given up 3 with runners still on the corners.

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    6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Excellent review Nate! Very happy for Kepler, he's really coming around, his grand slam was hugh in winning this game. Detroit played us tough by throwing out their best BP arms. Wish Archer could have gone 5 but Wes knows best, Archer influences a lot our pitchers, he's a leader and adds a lot to the chemistry of this club. Patience will pay high dividends come around the play-off time, with his stuff & expertise. Wish more fans had more patience and insight.

    Also like to recognize Pagan's solid performance & win together with Urshela's clutch hitting.

    Thank-you! I appreciate your kind words. 

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    15 hours ago, GNess said:

    A win that almost was a loss - postseason teams get a number of these over the course of the season.

    Thought - could all these rest days for Buxton be messing with his timing?

    I have had a similar concern. Amid this first place frivolity is the reality that one of the best players on the planet is currently 3-36.

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    4 hours ago, joefish said:

    Archer is mechanically inconsistent. His pitches are too. He falls off the mound. He falls over himself. Those things should be fixed. We need them to be fixed. The bullpen needs them to be fixed. 

     

    Just now, Epravens said:

    I have had a similar concern. Amid this first place frivolity is the reality that one of the best players on the planet is currently 3-36.

     

    4 hours ago, joefish said:

    Archer is mechanically inconsistent. His pitches are too. He falls off the mound. He falls over himself. Those things should be fixed. We need them to be fixed. The bullpen needs them to be fixed. 

    Perhaps he should be considered an "opener." In that light 4 innings is just fine. The problem is Bundy is a part of the same rotation and in tandem those two can't work long term. But I hope Favline are once again able to shower off the stench from the dumpster dives.

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    4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Good thing they fired Baldelli, because the new manager pulled all the right strings yesterday...

    Of course you're neglecting to mention his ineptitude in the loss at Oakland and the surrender on Sunday which was avoided by some timely at bats. By my count Mr. Baldelli's WAR is -37 so yes he should have been fired long ago and a one run win over a last place team at home doesn't alter that.

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    3 hours ago, Epravens said:

    Of course you're neglecting to mention his ineptitude in the loss at Oakland and the surrender on Sunday which was avoided by some timely at bats. By my count Mr. Baldelli's WAR is -37 so yes he should have been fired long ago and a one run win over a last place team at home doesn't alter that.

    I'm talking about this game. I didn't fail to do anything.

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