Twins 4, Guardians 6: Another Late-Inning Rally Falls Short

Box Score
SP: Chris Archer 2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (40 pitches, 24 strikes (60%))
Home Runs: no one
Bottom 3 WPA:  Max Kepler (-.160), Cole Sands (-.151), Chris Archer (-.130)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Groundhogs Day on the Mound
Chris Archer started for the Twins. Two batters into the game, a walk, and a home run from Amed Rosario, the Guardians were ahead 2-0. 

Archer has rarely completed five innings in a start. Tonight was his shortest start of the year. He pitched just two innings in this game before leaving the game. He was replaced at the top of the third by Cole Sands. 

Sands just returned from the IL and appeared rushed, unsettled and uncomfortable trying to find the strike zone. In the third inning, his pitches continued to drift out of the strike zone. He walked three and hit two batters to give the Guardians two runs and push the score 4-0. Sands did pitch into the sixth inning and gave up just one more run in his 3 1/3 innings.

Pagan and the Bullpen Keep Twins in Games
The bullpen continues to step up and set the tone for damage control and give the offense a chance to catch up. Emilio Pagan, who has been known for blowing saves, but he has been absolutely on fire of late. In his past six games, Pagan has a 2.57 ERA, only five hits, and two runs. It is a massive improvement to his earlier season stats. 

When the starters have been giving up runs early, the bullpen has come in and kept the runs from accumulating. Pete Maki has taken over in the interim as the Pitching Coach, bringing Colby Suggs in as the bullpen coach. Suggs was the run-prevention coordinator, and it seems that his expertise in understanding run defense may be aiding the bullpen. Since Suggs has taken the helm of the bullpen on July 1, it's taken a bit to catch a rhythm, but his techniques seem to be doing the trick. Suggs, certainly understands and pays attention to mechanics and maybe his personality is just what the bullpen needed. 

New Rules, New…Kepler?
MLB has implemented new rules to take place starting in the 2023 season. One of those rules will be not being able to utilize the shift. There must now be two players on either side of second base when the pitch is released, and all four infielders must be inside the infield dirt when the pitcher is on the rubber. No one is probably more relieved about the change to the rule than our own Max Kepler who is extremely well known for hitting into the shift. Tonight, two hits from Kepler were into the shift and the last drive was stopped by acrobatic magic from Andres Gimenez, who was posted far into right field. 

Kepler has had a great year defensively, but offensively, it’s been one of his worst seasons. Having to recover from Covid in 2021 and a broken toe this season seems to have compounded. Kepler has had a below-normal batting average (.230) than previous seasons. Kepler has been out recently with a hip injury as well. Later in the game, he was robbed of a home run by a leaping Will Benson in left field. 

Luis Arraez had two doubles tonight, and three hits. It was his 43rd game this season with more than one hit. Arraez and Carlos Correa have been absolutely dominant the past few games, the downfall has been others in the lineup. Twice on Saturday night, Arraez was stranded on base, along with Correa with the guys unable to string together any hits going scoreless until the bottom of the ninth.

Just when the collective thought the game was over, veteran Bryan Shaw started handing out hits in the ninth inning, and the Twins came alive. Gio Urshela tagged in on a sacrifice fly from Gary Sanchez to put the Twins on the board, and Jake Cave drove a double into left-centerfield which scored Kyle Garlick with two outs. The Twins offense continued to work Shaw with a rip to right field from Arraez, which scored Cave to push the score 6-3.

At that point, Terry Francona came in to make a pitching change. The Twins had forced Emmanuel Clase to come into the game. Clase is a strong closer, but he was not expecting to come in at all. He allowed a run right away when Correa grounded weakly to third base and a bad throw allowed Arraez to score all the way from first. Jose Miranda followed with a line drive single that sent Correa to third base.

The intensity rose as Clase as Kepler came up to hit, and after hitting into the shift all night, he hit a hard ground ball to third base (the only defender on the left side of the infield) to end the game. 

The Twins have their final game of this series with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. Can the Twins find a way to eek out a win?  

Do you think there is time to save the season and reach the postseason? Am I a hopeless romantic baseball fan? Let me know in the comments!

Pitching Preview Match-Up Cleveland Series: 
Sunday 1:10pm CST: TBD vs. RHP Shane Bieber (9-8, 2.96 ERA)

Post Game Interview
Coming soon.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet