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  • The Twins Can Be Patient in Waiting to Add Their Missing Piece


    Alex Boxwell

    Spring is around the corner, and so are projections for the 2023 season. The Twins are better, and they are healthy (for now). What is holding them back from being a consensus contender for a World Series?

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    With players now in camp, it’s always fun to see what experts say about your favorite ball club. The Twins have improved the roster from last season. That’s an objective truth. However, they are projected to win between 80-87 ball games, depending on where you look. So what is the squeaky wheel that needs the grease?

    Health was the clear hitch in our giddy-up last year. The depth of this team has been addressed to the point that we could see another trade of a big-league player before the start of the regular season. Our cup runneth over with solid big league position players, and some would argue with arms as well, a far cry from what we saw last season.

    There has been plenty of clamoring for a left-handed bullpen arm. I fancied what I saw from Jovani Moran last year, and Caleb Thielbar was a big reason the wheels stayed on the bus as long as they did in the second half last season. I don’t see a huge need for a left-handed arm, but after last season’s horror show, finding another veteran southpaw to add to the mix would be welcomed. Especially with how we handle our starters.

    The other move that everyone wants to see is that we finally add the ace. We declared our six-year window started when Carlos Correa signed his deal. The league knows that, and other general managers can follow what’s happening. The Twins are a prime candidate for overspending on an expiring contract of an ace.

    The grease needed for this Twins team to compete for a championship is that ace. With that being said, sacrificing our depth and the health of this six-year window by trading away future key pieces would be a grave error. How it needs to unfold is we go into the season with roughly the roster we have now or a small move or two.

    Waiting gives our roster a chance to play out and organically have guys win or lose jobs at crowded positions. It also gives time for the unfortunate reality of the injury situation to play out. The idea of jumping at the first top-tier starter being shopped is very seductive, but we need to be more calculated than that.

    Sacrificing years four through six to go all in on year one of our window is not a calculated gamble; it’s just gambling.

    We can see this rearing its ugly head with the Yankees and Frankie Montas—the arm we all coveted at this time last year. If the ‘where Frankie?’ meme (which was fantastic by the way) paid off; we’d be much worse off in the starting pitching department, with Montas likely being shelved for the year due to shoulder surgery.

    The Front Office isn’t in the business of making moves to make moves, it has to be the move.

    The Twins’ time is now, and another move is coming. They need to keep playing their hand as best they can and wait to make the move. It hedges their bet against the health situation and ‘The Gallo Gamble’ (patent pending). 

    Correa does not sign with the Twins if they don’t have a conversation about winning a championship. The cherry on top of this roster and the wild offseason would be the ace, but we will have to wait for mid-summer Christmas, the trade deadline.

     

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    6 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

    Rocco does have a winning record as a manager. He's an easy target but not the issue.

    So did Gardy.........until he didn't.  😉

    I'm kidding.......sort of.  But Gardy did have a pretty good winning record for a lot of years until he ran into 4 straight losing years, and he was gone.  Losing, even for a little while, does make you an easy target, because winning and losing is the only issue.  Heck, even Molly had winning records 2 of his 4 years, and the FO was selling out from under him left and right the last two.  

    Managers are paid to do two things (generally speaking).  Run the team day in and day out; players, coaches, lineups, pitching decisions, etc.  And win.  Again, generally speaking, more than you lose.  Given the talent level, of course.  We hit 307 home runs in '19; we didn't in '21 and '22.  Remind me of our records in those 3 years.  😏  Gotta win with out them sometimes.  

    All some of the folks are saying, maybe myself as well, is that the last two of our managers were made the scapegoat, so to speak, as are all managers when the team loses.  (on the other hand, Kelly had a lifetime losing record, and he is in the Twins Hall of Fame, so maybe I don't know what I am talking about)  

    I hate being the guy who is looking at the half empty glass instead of the half full one.  This team definitely has the potential to do very good things; it just has to do it, which is still a little iffy with all of the potential health issues we have seen recently.  I am rooting for your prediction.

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    7 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

    Bingo.  I just don't have the optimism I see others have. Terrible last year with runners in scoring position game after game.  Plus too lefty dominant.  Need a big right handed bat. Could have had Haniger for little or nothing. I hope the kids we have prove me wrong. 

    The Twins were actually pretty close to the league average with RISP.

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    42 minutes ago, Mark G said:

    So did Gardy.........until he didn't.  😉

    I'm kidding.......sort of.  But Gardy did have a pretty good winning record for a lot of years until he ran into 4 straight losing years, and he was gone.  Losing, even for a little while, does make you an easy target, because winning and losing is the only issue.  Heck, even Molly had winning records 2 of his 4 years, and the FO was selling out from under him left and right the last two.  

    The Twins are well-positioned to have a winning record for the next several years.   This year has a lot of question marks, but there is enough young talent at the ML level right now to produce a winning record for several years.  Then, this next wave will determine if they are a 90+ win team for multiple seasons.  If a few of that next wave (Lewis / Lee / Rodriguez / Julien / Martin /  Salas / Winder / Varland / SWR / Prelipp / Canterino / Balazovic / Raya and Festa turn out to be what we hope, this will be a very good team most of the next 6-8 years.  #5 pick next year will hopefully be part of that future as well.  

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    10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    I would echo most of what MLR has posted above. My optimism is much higher this year than it was a year ago.

    There has been more than enough discussion about health. I would say simply suggest that players like Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Buxton have the talent needed to carry this team, and there are sufficient numbers of others to supplement the lineup.

    Houston has Yordan Alvarez and New York has Aaron Judge. Each are superstars. When individuals suggest adding a significant bat the player often mentioned was Mitch Hanniger, who is not exactly a superstar. Trading for Trouts and the sort just doesn't happen. Do we wait and sign Machado? I don't think so. 

    I was not so hot on guys like  Gray and Mahle, but they were good additions. It was tough to see Petty get traded but I don't believe the Twins lost much in the other trades. Pablo Lopez makes the rotation much better.

    The Twins are in a pretty good position right now, about as good as could be expected. Sano never became that superstar that we all hoped he would become, so we hope that the next group of guys deliver on their promise. 85 wins AL Central.

    Really good post Tony and Rodney. You and I are on the same page on everything you just posted. You even mentioned my pet peeve, the trading of Petty. I really am glad the Twins got Gray, but I absolutely hated losing Petty.

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    On 2/17/2023 at 10:29 AM, miracleb said:

    I think Kiriloff and Larnach are finally going to live up to their first round pick status!

    If healthy, I agree! And I am looking forward to them both. 

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    On 2/18/2023 at 8:10 AM, Alex Boxwell said:

    Mahle and Lopez will have huge impacts on the Twins success this. I'm willing to hold out on calling those moves disasters because I like their stuff a lot and in baseball terms it was a very small sample of both. 
     

    Rocco still has a winning record as a manager after dealing with scraps last year. I'm a little tired of him as the scapegoat.

     

    The moves this front office makes are master class compared to what the previous regime was doing. Give me Falvey and Levine everyday of the week over what we've seen in the past..

    Your article is about waiting to make "the" move. Mahle and Lopez were acquired to help the Twins win in 2022. The fact that both of them had 2023 seasons under contract was a bonus. The MAIN reason you make trades at the deadline if you are in contention is to win THAT year. Both of those moves were "the" moves they made to win in 2022. That is the same thing you are expecting from them in 2023. Yet your point of view says that when they make "the" move in 2023 that we should expect it to help them in 2024. If it is next year then why is that "the" move? 

    As for Rocco, if you want to give him credit for winning in a season with a juiced ball and a shortened covid season where they didn't play many of the tougher teams then you also have to blame him when it comes to losing, especially when you manage poorly. Bad fundamentals, failure to even try to manufacture runs, pulling pitchers that are pitching well just because it is 3rd time through the order, over using a bullpen, or using a bad reliever over and over again in high leverage situations points criticism directly at you if you are the Manager. 

    The FO has a low bar to exceed compared to the previous regime. That doesn't make them geniuses if they outperform them. Their true measure of success is playoff wins and Championships and the lack of either speaks volumes. Evidently you didn't witness the Andy McPhail regime and the success he brought to the organization.

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    On 2/18/2023 at 8:34 AM, JD-TWINS said:

    Farmer - Taylor - Jeffers - Miranda - Buxton - CC core group v. LH pitching 20-25% of the games.

    Gordon - Larnach - Keppler - Gallo - Kiriloff core group v, RH pitching 75-80% of games.

    Polanco hits from both sides.

    I don’t see the weak offense concerns …….health yes…….hitting talent no.

    How can you call Kiriloff, Larnach and Gallo major league caliber hitters? They have done nothing so far.  And from the right side,  Jeffers, and Taylor? Cmon.  This is not a lineup that is going to scare anyone.  We have Miranda, Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Gordon, and Farmer with the last two being iffy. I just can't get excited about these hitters. Watched it for too long.

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