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  • Trade Deadline: What if the Twins Do Nothing?


    Seth Stohs

    Happy Trade Deadline Day, Twins Fans! This should be a fun day as the Twins find themselves Buyers at the deadline for the first time in a decade. I fully expect the Twins to acquire at least one pitcher before today’s 3 p.m. (central time) deadline, but what if they don’t? What if they stand pat?

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today

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    On Tuesday night, Cleveland finally traded All Star starting pitcher Trevor Bauer. Typically that move would be seen as the team selling, but in this case, I do believe that they got better. They have pitching, and seem to keep calling pitchers up who do well. Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac are two guys who fit into that mold. They also should be getting Corey Kluber back in the near future.

    Their need was offense, and they added two powerful outfielders in Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in the three-team swap. They also added LHP Logan Allen, a Top 100 prospect, and two more minor leaguers.

    It was a very creative move for Cleveland. The Twins were very creative in their acquisition of Sergio Romo over the weekend. Not only did the Twins receive the veteran reliever, but they also received hard-throwing RHP Chris Vallimont and a Player to be Named Later for slugging first base prospect Lewin Diaz.

    On its own, the Twins made a really, creative, savvy move to improve their bullpen and improve the team. Twins fans have generally felt that the trade was good for the Twins, though that thought always comes with the “as long as it isn’t the only move they make by the deadline.”

    But what if it is? What if Sergio Romo is the only player that the Twins add? What will it mean? Here are my thoughts.

    DISAPPOINTMENT

    First and foremost, Twins fans will and rightfully should feel disappointment. On the basic level, it’s always fun to acquire talent. It doesn’t even have to be elite talent, but just make the team better. Let's just say, #TwinsTwitter will not handle it well, for sure!

    On another level, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have consistently said that when the Twins window to compete for championships opens, they will pounce. Well, the window is wide open. This team has the talent to compete, not only for the American League Central title but also for a World Series. They have won two of six games against the Yankees this year, and probably should have won two more of those games. They won four of their seven matchups with the Astros this year. They currently have an edge on Cleveland this year too. Those are the top teams in the American League, and the team should absolutely feel like they can compete for an American League pennant. And hey, if you get to the World Series, you have a chance.

    So Twins fans will absolutely have every right to be disappointed and even upset if nothing is done.

    HOWEVER…

    This is a very good team as is, as shown by their performance so far this year against the top teams in the league. Their lineup can compete with anyone. They can slug with the best. Pitching has been the issue although even that hasn’t been as bad as we may think. The starters rank in the top the top third of the league in most statistics. Some of that is because their #4 (Perez) and #5 (Pineda) have been better than most 4s and 5s around the league. Jose Berrios is approaching Ace level. Jake Odorizzi was an All Star for his strong start, but he has been more inconsistent of late. Kyle Gibson’s been good at times but also a bit inconsistent. Not adding a starter would just mean that these guys would need to step it up down the stretch. But would the Twins have a top three or top four that you could feel good about going into the playoffs?

    And the bullpen has been better than expected, though a lot of that is because of Taylor Rogers. Sergio Romo stepped in as the 8th inning guy last night in his Twins debut. Tyler Duffey has returned to an intriguing bullpen option. Ryne Harper has been a big surprise. Trevor May was doing well until the 0-2 curveball in Cleveland, but he has the stuff to dominate and will need to find that again.

    And then some young guys. Cody Stashak had a moment in the Yankees series. Sean Poppen reeling off 96-97 mph fastballs with a strong slider could be great for the team down the stretch. And if Will Smith and Felipe Vasquez are unavailable, I don’t think there is an available left-handed reliever that I would feel better about than giving Lewis Thorpe an opportunity. And Devin Smeltzer is available as well. The concern with them is their lack of MLB experience, obviously.

    In addition, Fernando Romero has been much improved of late in Rochester. And as it appears the odds of Cody Allen helping the Twins down the stretch is waning, flamethrower Brusdar Graterol returned to the mound on Monday for his first rehab appearance. Maybe he and his 101-mph fastball can help. Jorge Alcala and his triple-digit fastball pitched out of the bullpen in his most-recent outing.

    SUMMARY

    So, while I still think it is very likely that the Twins make one or two moves before the trade deadline, and this article will be all for naught, it is important for Twins fans to stand by a team that has put themselves in this position. Absolutely, be disappointed that nothing was done, but hopefully you’ll be able to quickly shift your attention back to the fact that this team, as it is currently put together, can win the division. And, if you are under the opinion (as I mostly am) that the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, then you should still believe that the Twins can win in the playoffs too.

    All that said… Come On, Twins… Make a Move!

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    C'mon, it's an analogy to maintenance, you brought it up. It's pretty widely accepted there were questions about this bullpen before the season began and plenty of time and opportunity to do something about it. I'm willing to accept that Falvine were of the mind that they didn't expect this team to be where they are so far this season. If they aren't surprised, it's legitimate to question why they didn't do anything then and haven't done anything to this point. 

     

    I'd also add, much of what people are saying here is speculation in the absence of facts. It's a discussion forum, if speculating wasn't allowed we wouldn't have much to talk about, since none of us actually know anything. 

     

    Of course there were questions before the season, but in a season that started with hopes of competing for a wild card.  Blaming Falvine for not seeing the best offensive season in baseball history coming seems a little much.  If they did think they were going to be on 100 win pace for the entire season, then yes, I would absolutely question their decision to bet everything on Rogers, Hildenberger, and May.

     

    I also have no problem with speculation, I have a problem with leveling absolutes based on merely speculation.  If people want to speculate Falvine is balking at asking prices, that's one thing.  Instead, people are speculating that Falvine aren't really doing anything, other than perhaps leaking some false reports so they don't look bad when they don't make a trade

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    would your wife accept any of those excuses for why the lawn still isnt mowed?

    I know for certain Mrs Chief wouldn't. Because, you know...excuses.

     

    My wife is a fairly reasonable woman, and understands that sometimes there are excuses, and sometimes there are reasons.  I'm fairly confident she would not blame me for rain or getting rear-ended, nor would she have preferred I strand our child at school in order to mow the lawn.

     

    Although that being said, as my wife and I are childless and live in an apartment building, this is completely theoretical on my end.

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    It's been discussed here, but any team that could use Schoop for the next 2 months probably also wants to keep their worthwhile relievers. (Or get a better future return, if they are selling now.)

     

    He could be a piece for a team that wants to dump salary, but that's it.

     

    I don't know how many teams need to dump salary on relievers, though. The Twins may have already found the only team that wanted to do that and made the deal.

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    Time for my tinfoil hat:

     

    GMs are unhappy with getting rid of August trades, and are already posturing for their return next season.

     

    In a sign of silent rebellion, they make only a minimum amount of trades and only for players they feel they have to move - expiring contracts, malcontents, etc.

     

    Ancient-Aliens.jpg

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    My wife is a fairly reasonable woman, and understands that sometimes there are excuses, and sometimes there are reasons.  I'm fairly confident she would not blame me for rain or getting rear-ended, nor would she have preferred I strand our child at school in order to mow the lawn.

     

    Although that being said, as my wife and I are childless and live in an apartment building, this is completely theoretical on my end.

    Yeah, her reaction might depend on the quality of the lawn and/or child. :)

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    It was almost certainly a Twins source. It was a local reporter (Lavelle), and the same article from Lavelle contained info about the Twins negotiations with Toronto.

     

    National sources had the Mets ask as both Lewis and Kirilloff earlier.

     

    And you know that LEN3 is not in contact with any individual in the Met's organization...how?

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    Looking at this discussion reminds me that the Twins sure have gotten some excitement into their fans, eh?

     

    For me, time to take a break and grad a little lunch.  Then come back for the really important announcement today...the FED. 

     

    The pitchforks are already out and deadline is still hours away.  

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    And you know that LEN3 is not in contact with any individual in the Met's organization...how?

    It seems really, really unlikely in this case. Lavelle's report had zero insight into the Mets deal with Toronto, which a Mets source could have presumably improved. And why would the Mets be feeding this info to Lavelle but no one else? And perhaps most importantly, it was a very unfavorable report for the Mets, basically saying that talks were over and implying they would not resume. How does that help the Mets get a better offer from someone else?

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    The pitchforks are already out and deadline is still hours away.  

    To be fair, I think it was free pitchfork night at Target Field recently.

     

    Next homestand features Falvey and Levine Effigy Night.

     

    Edit: to be *even more* fair than twinsnorth49....

    Edited by spycake
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    I don't get this part...

     

    "it is important for Twins fans to stand by a team that has put themselves in this position."

     

    If they opt to stand pat and not do anything to improve the obvious and glaring weaknesses of this team, why should we stand by this team and its front office? They are doing a disservice to everyone involved, including the 25 guys in that clubhouse, the coaches, and fans, if they don't make a move to improve this team.

     

    That is such a cop out of a statement, really.

     

    Because 1.) We're Twins fans, and 2.) they're fun to watch and follow.

     

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    This may have been stated but people are typing as fast as I can read this thread, so I skipped ahead...

     

    If the trade deadline comes and goes and nothing happens, that's just unacceptable. Ian Kennedy is the reason I'll be mad. We know that if a team offered KC a C-level prospect for Ian Kennedy (with no salary relief) the Royals would jump at it. Basically, all he costs is money. Is Ian Kennedy worth 16M next year? Of course not, but at that point, it would just be about the money and that's not an acceptable excuse for the Twins at this point. 

     

    Not that I need it to be Ian Kennedy, but I just don't see any other team that is desperate enough to say "yeah, we'll take on that whole salary" so, taking on Ian Kennedy's $22M remaining money is the absolute floor of acceptability. 

     

    If you're not willing to part with the required prospect capital, then you need to part with actual capital.

    Edited by amjgt
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    Because we will never know the cost to acquire [beloved Player X] via trade, it is hard to say that I will be upset if the Twins do not make another acquisition. For every player that is reportedly available, there is a price that I would be unhappy if the Twins pay it--even with the benefit of adding that player to the 2019 roster (and presumably increasing the odds of playoffs/playoff wins). Because of that, I can't honestly feel more than  general  disappointment that something didn't work out. I'd need information that I will never have to feel anger or betrayed. 

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    ***********Moderator Note:

     

    Today will likely see emotions run high, but the moderators have already hid multiple posts that were too personal in nature. Please refrain from accusations or intimations about other posters mindsets and agendas and please refrain from bickering.

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    Another thing I’d like to add is while we should strive to be like the Tampa Bay Rays our minor league development hasn’t been great. Yes, it’s looking more like some of our position players are developing nicely (Polanco, Garver, Rosario, and Kepler), yet we’ve only sorta developed 2 quality starting pitchers in Berríos and Gibson (and Gibson is a stretch considering he was a potential #2-3 starter who is more or less a #4-5 starter). If we were actually better at developing talent I’d feel better of standing pat.

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    Because we will never know the cost to acquire [beloved Player X] via trade, it is hard to say that I will be upset if the Twins do not make another acquisition. For every player that is reportedly available, there is a price that I would be unhappy if the Twins pay it--even with the benefit of adding that player to the 2019 roster (and presumably increasing the odds of playoffs/playoff wins). Because of that, I can't honestly feel more than  general  disappointment that something didn't work out. I'd need information that I will never have to feel anger or betrayed. 

     

    Generally, I agree with you, but the existence of Ian Kennedy and his contract makes us relatively sure that if the Twins were willing to pony up money (and almost nothing in terms of prospects), they could make a significant improvement to the bullpen. 

     

    For most other guys, I agree with you. You never know what other teams are asking for.

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