Top Twins Players Not in the Hall of Fame: Joe Nathan

Case for Induction

Even with the late start to his career, Nathan pitched into his 40s while making six All-Star teams. He accumulated six seasons with an ERA under 2.00 with a career 9.5 SO/9. One of the biggest stats attached to Hall of Fame relievers is saves and he finished eighth in careers saves and there were seven times he ranked in the top five in saves. Nathan also ranks sixth all-time in win probability added among relief pitchers.

Jay Jaffe, the man that literally wrote the book on Cooperstown cases, has Nathan among the two best relief pitchers outside the Hall. While Jaffe usually turns to JAWS, a scoring system he created for HOF players, he examines relievers through a different lens. Jaffe places Nathan in his top-7 overall relief pitchers through his hybrid average of WAR, WPA, and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI). That certainly puts him among the best relief arms in baseball history.

Case Against Induction

Nathan didn’t become a big-league regular until late into his 20s and this makes it hard to accumulate some of the statistical measures connected to other Hall of Fame relief pitchers. Currently, there are only eight relief pitchers that have been inducted, the fewest of any Cooperstown group. This is going to make it quite the uphill climb for Nathan to have a chance at immortality.

Billy Wagner is a player currently on the Hall of Fame ballot to keep an eye on when it comes Nathan’s chances. Wagner was only on 10.5% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility back in 2017. That number was all the way up to 31.7% in 2020 as he is slowly gaining traction. Nathan has a slight edge in WPA compared to Wagner, while Wagner was able to accumulate more career WAR. If Wagner can gain election, it can help Nathan’s chances when he becomes eligible in 2022.

Prediction

Nathan is going to have a tough road to Cooperstown even though he is among the best relief pitchers in baseball history. Voters might begin to recognize the importance of relievers especially with their increased usage in the modern game. He is going to need some help to stay on the ballot, but he has a chance to slowly build a case like what has happened with Wagner in recent years.

What’s your prediction for when Nathan appears on the Hall of Fame ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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