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  • Three Potential Catcher Upgrades on the Trade Market

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Now that we're into June, the MLB trade deadline is becoming visible on the horizon. As the Twins assess their needs, they find themselves in the rare position of feeling good about pitching depth. Reinforcements on that front will be arriving via the minors, or the disabled list.

    Even on the position-player side, Minnesota looks fairly well set, with one very notable exception.

    I believe they should be thinking big when it comes to acquiring a difference-maker at catcher. In fact, a blockbuster deal to bring in a long-term solution ought to be in play.

    Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez, USA Today (J.T. Realmuto)

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    Heading into the season, I called out the team's questionable catching depth as a primary concern. The Twins just didn't have much in the way of established commodities behind starter Jason Castro (who himself was basically an average player).

    Two months in, Castro is out for the year and Minnesota's iffy catching depth is being put to the test. Mitch Garver had a solid April but since May 1st he is hitting .188/.278/.234 with three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 72 PA. The lack of production would be easy enough to live with if his defense stood out, but Paul Molitor doesn't appear to feel that way; why else would light-hitting minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson (slashing .167/.196/.333 since his call-up) be getting so many reps?

    I'm not giving up on Garver but realistically, he was a fringe prospect who isn't showing much offensively here at age 27. There isn't a ton of upside there. All of the organization's best catching prospects remain several years away. And while Castro is under contract for 2019, he'll be returning as a 31-year-old coming off major knee surgery.

    The Twins could use a serious big-league addition at catcher, and not necessarily in the form of a 2018 rental. However, even that route would potentially yield a meaningful upgrade capable of making a pivotal impact.

    As I look at the current landscape around the majors, there are three opportunities I see for making a splash and reeling in some serious help behind the plate. Here they are, from the least dramatic to the most (and I've gotta admit, Option C is my favorite right now).

    Option A: Trade with the Atlanta Braves for Tyler Flowers

    The Braves, who find themselves leading the NL East here in June, aren't in position to be dumping valuable assets, but they could live without Flowers. The 32-year-old is having another good season, slashing .270/.403/.444 after posting an .823 OPS last year, but he's in a timeshare with fellow veteran backstop (and former Twin) Kurt Suzuki.

    Even with their surprisingly strong start, the Braves are still a young, future-minded team. Presumably they'd be open to shipping out Flowers, who's eligible for free agency after this season, in exchange for controllable talent with upside. Flowers has far more MLB experience than any of Minnesota's present fixtures, and is considered a strong pitch framer. Plus, his OBP skills would bolster the lower half of the Twins lineup.

    A Suzuki reunion would also be possible, I suppose, but I prefer Flowers as a fit for this team.

    Option B: Trade with the Oakland Athletics for Jonathan Lucroy

    When Oakland signed Lucroy to a one-year, $6.5 million deal around the same time in March that Minnesota added Lance Lynn, it was assumed he'd be used as trade bait around the deadline. And even though the A's find themselves above the .500 mark two months in, that's still the likely plan. They have no real shot at contending in a division with three clearly superior teams.

    The price to acquire Lucroy would probably be higher than a Flowers type, but not by a ton. At 31, Lucroy isn't the offensive force he once was — he has only one home run thus far — but he's a capable hitter and a steady vet with a .264 average and .338 OBP dating back to the start of last year.

    Option C: Trade with the Miami Marlins for J.T. Realmuto

    This is the "aim high" option and — in many ways — a very logical one. Unlike Flowers and Lucroy, Realmuto is still relatively young (he turned 27 in March) with multiple years of team control (he's arbitration eligible through 2020). He's also very good, with a .761 career OPS and a .301/.359/.510 line this year.

    The Marlins were shopping Realmuto during the offseason, but he was one of the few attractive assets they ended up keeping (much to his chagrin). The Nationals are among the clubs that made a run at him, but ultimately they couldn't meet Miami's asking price. This tells us Minnesota will have to pony up if they want to make something happen, especially since Realmuto's having an excellent season.

    But from my view, names like Stephen Gonsalves and Nick Gordon should be on the table. Realmuto is just that kind of commodity, capable of making a franchise-altering impact as the Twins (hopefully) enter their contention window.

    What do you think? Do you have a preference among these options? Perhaps another trade scenario strikes your fancy? Or would you be satisfied with staying the course, letting Garver stay in the driver's seat while hoping someone like newly signed Triple-A farmhand Cameron Rupp can step in if needed?

    Please share your thoughts in the comments if you've got 'em.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    Give up some pitching prospect(s) for 23 year old Danny Jansen @ AAA with the Blue Jays?

     

    BA .323 and OPS .919 in 61 AAA games.

    Don't the Jays kind of need him? Russell Martin isn't getting it done anymore, and his deal runs out after 2019 just like Castro.

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    ikes the game calling and potential of Garver, then a better veteran to split time and learn from makes the most sense. Could the Twins offer and afford to part with Gonsalves and Gordon to Miami? Absolutely. Would it hurt? Absolutely. 

     

    I don't think that Gonsalves and Gordon will do it, and at this point, Gordon is probably penciled in as the starting second baseman in 2019.  So it has to be someone else than Gordon (unless they extend Escobar.)  Let's say Kirilloff.  Still the Twins will probably need to add yet another player at that level and I am not sure they have it, because Lewis, Graterol (top end rotation), and Rooker (pretty much only RH power in the organization) should be untouchable.   Would something like Gonsalves, Kirilloff, and Wade do it?   Not sure that it is enough

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    rdehring

    rdehring 3,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Why not send Sano to Miami straight up for Realmuto, seems at least possible, especially from the perspective of Miami, who’d like to add someone to build their team around. And I think by adding a consistent contributor behind the dish for the price Sano would only make a more well rounded & dangerous lineup for Twins that’d be taken much more seriously in the eyes of the league.

    Why would Miami do that?  Have you watched Sano lately?  Unless he gets into shape, he is wasting a wonderful opportunity.  So I will use the word disappointing, rather than the words I would like to which would get me get tossed off this site.

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    jtkoupal

    jtkoupal 519

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Here is the problem. Despite the big series win over the weekend, the Twins still only have a 15% chance of making the playoffs. Is it really wise to give up pieces to help a team that is still a relative long-shot to make the playoffs? The Twins might be more legitimate contenders in 2019 and 2020, so in that respect, the trade may make sense. However, it will take more resources to get someone with 2.5 years left of control vs someone with 1.5 or 2 years. They will probably be able to get him cheaper down the road, unless he becomes elite.

     

    This year may not be the year to go big for a trade piece, as the Twins are probably going to have to sell barring a furious hot streak and a collapse on the part of the Indians. 

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    Tomj14

    Tomj14 1,146

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I would go to the Marlins and say:

    Gordon or Javier

    and

    Gonzo or Enlow or Thorpe

    and

    Ben Rortvedt or Garver

     

    and if need be maybe throw in Jorge or Stewart to sweeten the deal.

     

     

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    twinfan

    twinfan 242

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I would not touch Lucroy as he is overpaid right now and on the downside. Flowers would have to be a trade and sign deal. Realmuto would be great but the asking price would be very high. There have been several catchers on the waiver wire that could help if needed and even if we have to use one from the minors early, that would not be so horrible. I don't see us making the playoffs this year so we have to look at who is going to help us next year and the year after. I would not mortgage the farm.

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    Oxtung

    Oxtung 516

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    IMO catchers are too prone to injury and need to many days off to pay big for them. I’d rather have a good defensive catcher with a weaker bat that is cheaper to acquire and invest those resources elsewhere.

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    Blackjack

    Blackjack 869

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

       Would something like Gonsalves, Kirilloff, and Wade do it?   Not sure that it is enough

    I'm not a big fan of trading multiple players for one, all your eggs are in one basket, then if he gets hurt, you are are up a crick without a paddle. The Timberpuppies trade for Jimmy Butler comes to mind.

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    terrydactyls

    terrydactyls 3,340

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The Twins have Winston Sawyer hitting .340 and Willians Astudillo hitting .280 in Rochester and Brian Navaretto hitting .270 in Chattanooga. How about giving one of them a shot before looking outside the organization? Despite the Cleveland series, I still think the Twins have no chance at the playoffs this year. Let's hold off on stripping the farm for a while.

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I'm not terribly against A and B if the cost is relatively cheap. I do agree with everyone else that option C is best. We will need a C next year and the year after too, so getting a top catcher does make sense if the front office agrees that our window is here now.

     

    That, however, will be very expensive. I'm guessing it starts with Lewis and likely Kirilloff as well. Even then, I'd guess there's some other prospects being thrown in.

     

    With that, it improves a black hole in the lineup, but it still doesn't solve the fact that for this team to go deep, they need to get Buxton and Sano doing something close to their potential with Polanco returning and producing as well.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    I tend to agree with this. Garver is a rookie and not playing daily. Why? Because Molitor doesn't believe in him? Or because Molitor is letting him grow and develop instead of thrusting him to the daily job? If it's the former, may be time to pony up. It takes quality to get quality. In fact, I'm wondering how the Twins will be able to hold on to some guys in regard to next year's 40 man and rule V draft. If Molitor actually likes the game calling and potential of Garver, then a better veteran to split time and learn from makes the most sense. Could the Twins offer and afford to part with Gonsalves and Gordon to Miami? Absolutely. Would it hurt? Absolutely. Which means it sounds about right with another piece thrown in.

    As I mentioned a week or two ago, I think the loss of Castro actually hurts Garver.

     

    Playing ~50 games and chatting up one of the better framers and receivers in the league 100 other days of the season could be a boon for Garver's game going forward.

     

    Because as it stands now, I wince when I see Garver in the starting lineup because I know I'm going to suffer through at least 4-5 really ugly catches in the game.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    The Twins have Winston Sawyer hitting .340 and Willians Astudillo hitting .280 in Rochester and Brian Navaretto hitting .270 in Chattanooga. How about giving one of them a shot before looking outside the organization? Despite the Cleveland series, I still think the Twins have no chance at the playoffs this year. Let's hold off on stripping the farm for a while.

    Trading two prospects isn't stripping the farm.

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    Tomj14

    Tomj14 1,146

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Depends on what prospects you're talking about.

    Even if those two are Lewis and Gordon, it might hurt but wouldn't be stripping the farm.

     

    What would be interesting would be an article on who will be on the 40 next year and which minor leaguers will have to be added or left available in the Rule 5.

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    slash129

    slash129 1,095

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    The answer is obvious.   I see Escobar has caught a game already in his career.   Everyone ok with an .875 OPS from our catcher?

     

    To be fair Rupp has done that over the course of his career ............ against LHP

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    RatherBeGolfing

    RatherBeGolfing 340

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Even if those two are Lewis and Gordon, it might hurt but wouldn't be stripping the farm.

     

     

    For an organization that is lacking a ton of high upside talent in the farm system, yeah that would be a pretty big deal.

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    What would be interesting would be an article on who will be on the 40 next year and which minor leaguers will have to be added or left available in the Rule 5.

    Roster Resource is pretty good for that:

     

    https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/

     

    Gordon, Wade, and Tyler Jay are the main guys who will need to be added. A few more relievers could be too (Nick Anderson, Andrew Vasquez).

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    Tomj14

    Tomj14 1,146

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

    For an organization that is lacking a ton of high upside talent in the farm system, yeah that would be a pretty big deal.

    agreed, but in theory wouldn't they be getting one player back that is considered as good or better?

    (also assuming if they traded those two or any high two, it wouldn't be for a rental)

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    dbminn

    dbminn 1,849

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Realmuto would not come cheap. He's been a 3.5 WAR catcher the last two years. He's on his way to a 4-5 WAR season. He has 2-1/2 yrs of control. His WAR value is roughly $80M. He'll probably make $15M in arbitration, plus a remaining $2M this year. That leaves a net value of roughly $60-$65M.

     

    Great research provided by the Point of Pittsburgh has been used by FG to derive rough values for prospects. Gordon and Gonsalves are worth about $50M. The Twins would have to add a couple more prospects to make a deal. Maybe Rooker/ Rortvedt or Javier/Garver? 

     

    IMO this is a decent estimate for an All-Star catcher in his prime. That's a lot of good prospects. The trade would also force the Twins to sign either Dozier, Escobar or a FA middle IF next year.  

     

    As excited as I am to see Gordon, I'd probably make the trade. The Twins SP is in a good window the next few years and Sano/Buxton/Polanco should all be on the field together at some point. JT would be a good fit.

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    dbminn

    dbminn 1,849

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    If I'm the Marlins, any Realmuto trade talks have to start with a top 50 prospect in all of baseball.

     

    Gordon is a top 50 prospect right now, IMO. Feel free to disagree :)

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