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  • Three-Bagger: Rocky Rotation, Replacements & Raw Power


    Nick Nelson

    Is more change coming for the Twins rotation? Who might be lined up to step in next? And what should we make of a prospect's prodigious power display in Rochester?

    All are covered in today's Three-Bagger.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

    Twins Video

    * Five days after coming out of a strong outing against the Tigers with just 75 pitches thrown, Phil Hughes took the hill against the Blue Jays on Sunday and once again managed to navigate his way through a quality start, despite opponents hitting non-stop rockets.

    The righty deserves plenty of credit for gutting it out but his pitches are woefully ineffective right now, as illustrated by the amount of contact being made and the loudness of that contact. In his last two starts Hughes has struck out only one of the 48 batters he has faced. That simply isn't going to be a workable formula for him.

    Hughes doesn't rank atop the list of Paul Molitor's concerns in the rotation, though. Ricky Nolasco was shelled by the Royals on Monday, failing to make it through three innings while giving up six runs. The meltdown was made more irksome by Nolasco's apathetic postgame remarks:

    https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/734971347261001729

    The injury issues that consistently marred Nolasco's first two seasons in Minnesota were essentially the only justification for his getting another shot this year despite wholly inadequate results. Now he's healthy by his own admission and once again getting raked, with an 8.14 ERA and 990 opponents' OPS in the month of May.

    For a player who was already nearing the end of his rope with this organization, a parting of ways can't be far off as the team endures another dreadful stretch of performances.

    Even with Kyle Gibson due to return soon, the Twins may find themselves turning to the minors for reinforcements in the rotation.

    * Who might be at the head of the line to step in should another spot open up? It's probably not Jose Berrios. In his first start back at Rochester following last week's demotion, Berrios issued five walks and required 104 pitches to get through five innings, a continuation of the inefficiency and command problems that got him sent down.

    The more likely candidate for a promotion is Tommy Milone, who has been on the opposite end of the control spectrum since heading to Triple-A. In three starts with the Red Wings, Milone has issued zero walks over 20 innings while striking out 17 and putting up a 2.18 ERA. Just like he did last summer when the Twins demoted him, the lefty has responded well and is doing everything necessary to earn a trip back.

    Milone may have a limited ceiling, but right now he looks like a preferable option to at least three members of the Twins rotation. The southpaw would need to be re-added to the 40-man in order to return, but placing Glen Perkins on the 60-day DL is a formality at this point.

    * Not since 1990 has a player on the Rochester Red Wings hit three home runs in a game. At least, that was the case until Saturday, when slugging prospect Adam Walker accomplished the feat by going deep in each of his first three at-bats against Durham.

    Walker is now tied for the International League lead with nine home runs on the season, but that's nothing new. He has led his league in homers every year since he joined the professional ranks. His power is the stuff of legend.

    Given that Walker, who ranked 11th on our list of top Twins prospects this spring, is now at Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster, one could surmise that a big-league debut may be looming this summer. Indeed, it would behoove Minnesota to get a look at the 24-year-old, and his promotion would stir some warranted excitement among fans who dig the long ball. Walker is capable of hitting them longer than almost anybody in the game, and that's no overstatement.

    Unfortunately, while his immense pop has translated to the highest level of the minors, so too has his greatest weakness – one that makes it excruciatingly difficult to see him developing into a successful MLB hitter. He has struck out in 65 of his 148 plate appearances for Rochester (44 percent).

    To put that in perspective, no qualified hitter in the majors has ever posted a K-rate above 37 percent. Chris Carter, who set that record in 2013 with the Astros, struck out in only 24 percent of his plate appearances at Triple-A.

    Can a player like Walker stay afloat offensively in the big leagues while whiffing in half of his plate appearances if he is obliterating the ball when he manages to make contact?

    Not likely. But I'm curious to see. Why not?

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    I agree with this - give them a chance when they come up (although that might mean you have to fire the manager). My point is that only Polanco and Beresford are really playing at a level that shows they should get that chance and might be successful. Also, Buxton soon if he keeps it up. The late June OF - Grossman, Buxton and Santana. 

    My only real change to that would be to call Kepler up.  I know he's hurt now, but I would have given him a chance anyway.  He was trending in the right direction and didn't get a real opportunity while he was with the big club.  If Vargas wasn't blocked by two guys, I'd add him to that list too but I don't know how to use him.

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    Other than pitching to AAA batters, if Milone is not doing anything different than he did in the majors the results will be the same as before.

    Or they could be the same as in 2012 when he was a fairly serviceable big league pitcher.  Guess that's why they play the games.

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    I'd guess nobody wants to pay him $6 mil. 

    Milone's salary this year is only $4.5 mil.  At the time he was waived, he had roughly ~$3.75 mil remaining.

     

    If he was really a league-average starter, I have to think multiple teams would have claimed him at that price.

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    Right now the Twins need starters that can give them innings and salvage the beleaguered bullpen. Even with this terrible W/L record that is still a significant priority.

    Milone averaged fewer IP/GS in 2016 MLB than Duffey, Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson.  He trailed all of those pitchers in the same category for 2015 too, except the hobbled Nolasco.  His 2015 IP/GS mark was virtually the same as notably poor innings-eater Mike Pelfrey, and just a hair ahead of bullpen-bound Trevor May.

     

    Milone's IP/GS has dropped each year of his career since his rookie season in Oakland.  His career mark is lower than even Nolasco's poor 2014 season.

     

    I'd guess there are probably other directions the Twins could go in 2016 for similar "innings eating" performance that are more useful for a club in our position.  (And if they involve pitchers with options, like Dean, May, Rogers, Darnell, Wheeler, Berrios, Meyer, etc., that is even better, because those pitchers have the flexibility to be optioned out for an extra reliever as needed -- something we can't do with Milone.)

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    Best career ERA of any starter but Duffey.    2nd best ERA on the team last year.    SSS this year with ERA inflated due to Molitor not pulling him soon enough one game and reliever giving up all three runs in a bases loaded two out situation in another..     Milone should not have been sent down in the first place.     Nolasco on the other hand was ok in a very SSS and was kept instead.    I also would have preferred Milone to Hughes.     When Berrios or Meyer are performing well enough to push for promotion then Milone can be the guy that gets dumped.   I prefer to see a guy with limited stuff and great command to someone with limited stuff and very poor command.

    I agree with you and I have enjoyed watching Milone when he has good games. He had quite a few last year and if he is pitching well again, let's get him on track here  and then possibly trade him or keep him.

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    This is extreme cherry-picking.  Yes, Milone had 3 inherited runners score in one game, but relievers also stranded 4 of his inherited runners in other starts.

     

    Also, in the game where the 3 inherited runners scored, Milone actually had a runner at first with two outs, before he walked consecutive batters to reach 102 pitches and bring up the heart of the Brewers order, of which Braun was already 2-for-2 vs Milone that day, and Lucroy had a fly ball caught at the fence in dead center, and another caught at the opposite field warning track in right.  If you're past 100 pitches and not out of the 5th inning yet, it's hard to muster much sympathy for you.

     

    And what game this year did Milone not get pulled soon enough?  Was it April 15th vs the Angels?  He was at 68 pitches through 6 innings, his only remotely efficient start of the year.  Letting him face 3 batters in the 7th inning was hardly keeping him in too long -- it wasn't Molitor's fault that Milone gave up a HR, a walk, and another HR to those 3 batters.  Every other start of the year, Milone failed to complete 5 innings due to his own poor and inefficient performance.

    Yes, it was definitely cherry picking.    I believe I 2nd guess manager decisions less than most.    I just remember saying to my wife about the Angels game that 6 innings was enough.   Third time through the order.   He hadn't pitched past 5 yet.  Just his 2nd game.   Let him feel good about a 6 inning shutout and let the relievers start the inning.     Not hindsight because I said it all before it happened but I admit it was just a gut feeling that he should be pulled at that point.    The other game I just saw that he was pulled with 2 outs and bases loaded and that all three guys scored.      Cherry picking but the overriding principal is that he only got 4 starts.   I am guessing that he would have a better ERA than Nolasco at this point mainly because he has a better career ERA (AL vs NL to boot), a better ERA with the Twins and a better ERA last year.    I am all for any of the young guys replacing him because of earning promotion.    Not so much for Nolasco getting the pick based on 20 innings.

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    I love how everyone gets worked up about the K's.. Sano may be K'ing at a league high clip, but he has a .736 OPS even after a long slump. So he's an above League average hitter at what I think is the trough of his slump. 1 word for people worried about Sano. "R-E-L-A-X" so for Walker coming up, I agree 44% is too much, get it down to 36-38 I consider it because of all that power. Arica was K'ing at a 45% rate when he was hitting well earlier this year, lately he's dropped it down to 36% and has struggled hitting recently. No contact > soft contact. Just gotta ease them into it and hope they can learn to adjust and be more selective at the plate.

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