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  • Three-Bagger: Rocky Rotation, Replacements & Raw Power


    Nick Nelson

    Is more change coming for the Twins rotation? Who might be lined up to step in next? And what should we make of a prospect's prodigious power display in Rochester?

    All are covered in today's Three-Bagger.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

    Twins Video

    * Five days after coming out of a strong outing against the Tigers with just 75 pitches thrown, Phil Hughes took the hill against the Blue Jays on Sunday and once again managed to navigate his way through a quality start, despite opponents hitting non-stop rockets.

    The righty deserves plenty of credit for gutting it out but his pitches are woefully ineffective right now, as illustrated by the amount of contact being made and the loudness of that contact. In his last two starts Hughes has struck out only one of the 48 batters he has faced. That simply isn't going to be a workable formula for him.

    Hughes doesn't rank atop the list of Paul Molitor's concerns in the rotation, though. Ricky Nolasco was shelled by the Royals on Monday, failing to make it through three innings while giving up six runs. The meltdown was made more irksome by Nolasco's apathetic postgame remarks:

    https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/734971347261001729

    The injury issues that consistently marred Nolasco's first two seasons in Minnesota were essentially the only justification for his getting another shot this year despite wholly inadequate results. Now he's healthy by his own admission and once again getting raked, with an 8.14 ERA and 990 opponents' OPS in the month of May.

    For a player who was already nearing the end of his rope with this organization, a parting of ways can't be far off as the team endures another dreadful stretch of performances.

    Even with Kyle Gibson due to return soon, the Twins may find themselves turning to the minors for reinforcements in the rotation.

    * Who might be at the head of the line to step in should another spot open up? It's probably not Jose Berrios. In his first start back at Rochester following last week's demotion, Berrios issued five walks and required 104 pitches to get through five innings, a continuation of the inefficiency and command problems that got him sent down.

    The more likely candidate for a promotion is Tommy Milone, who has been on the opposite end of the control spectrum since heading to Triple-A. In three starts with the Red Wings, Milone has issued zero walks over 20 innings while striking out 17 and putting up a 2.18 ERA. Just like he did last summer when the Twins demoted him, the lefty has responded well and is doing everything necessary to earn a trip back.

    Milone may have a limited ceiling, but right now he looks like a preferable option to at least three members of the Twins rotation. The southpaw would need to be re-added to the 40-man in order to return, but placing Glen Perkins on the 60-day DL is a formality at this point.

    * Not since 1990 has a player on the Rochester Red Wings hit three home runs in a game. At least, that was the case until Saturday, when slugging prospect Adam Walker accomplished the feat by going deep in each of his first three at-bats against Durham.

    Walker is now tied for the International League lead with nine home runs on the season, but that's nothing new. He has led his league in homers every year since he joined the professional ranks. His power is the stuff of legend.

    Given that Walker, who ranked 11th on our list of top Twins prospects this spring, is now at Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster, one could surmise that a big-league debut may be looming this summer. Indeed, it would behoove Minnesota to get a look at the 24-year-old, and his promotion would stir some warranted excitement among fans who dig the long ball. Walker is capable of hitting them longer than almost anybody in the game, and that's no overstatement.

    Unfortunately, while his immense pop has translated to the highest level of the minors, so too has his greatest weakness – one that makes it excruciatingly difficult to see him developing into a successful MLB hitter. He has struck out in 65 of his 148 plate appearances for Rochester (44 percent).

    To put that in perspective, no qualified hitter in the majors has ever posted a K-rate above 37 percent. Chris Carter, who set that record in 2013 with the Astros, struck out in only 24 percent of his plate appearances at Triple-A.

    Can a player like Walker stay afloat offensively in the big leagues while whiffing in half of his plate appearances if he is obliterating the ball when he manages to make contact?

    Not likely. But I'm curious to see. Why not?

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    I could keep going, but what all this adds up to is a GM painted into a corner.  If you cut those players lose, it is admitting failure...not going to happen.  If he continues to keep those players on the payroll, it blocks the future.  I just don't see a way out of this one.

    There's nothing wrong with admitting failure.  It happens.  Not admitting failure and making it worse trying to avoid admitting it is a much bigger problem that only makes things worse.

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    Right now the Twins need starters that can give them innings and salvage the beleaguered bullpen. Even with this terrible W/L record that is still a significant priority. Going with someone like Berrios over Milone is simply not an option right now for that reason.

     

    Fair point, but not giving them innings and taxing that same beleaguered bullpen was exactly what got him outrighted to begin with.  That's why he's is in AAA and not on the 40 man.  That wasn't even a month ago.  You're more confident in him providing that than I.  

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    I don't think it matters what they do with their roster at this point. They got nothing on the farm that is MLB ready that could remotely salvage this season. No one that is tradeable besides, Santana and Plouffe maybe. Just eat contracts and do whatever it takes to get all the bums off this roster by next year and hope the young guys make some nice strides for next season.

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    Whilst everyone mocks ABW's K-rate, have you been watching Sano lately? I read where he leads MLB in total strikeouts.  Last night:   3Ks, a hustle beat-the-throw to 1B (well done!) force out, and the game-ending (sacrifice) fly out to CF (and Sano represented the winning run!).  Combine his lack of defensive value, why is he still with the Twins rather than in Rochester?  Is it because Kepler is injured? Or, does Sano have a "scholarship"?

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    Despite striking out in a whopping 44% of his plate appearances, Walker has a better OBP thaaaaan

    Park
    Escobar
    Plouffe
    Dozier
    Suzuki
    Santana
    Centeno
    (Rosario)
    (Button)

     

    You are comparing his ob% to actual MLB players?   I get what you are trying to say, but it is not apples to apples.   

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    I don't disagree with anything you said here.  I'm not suggesting that you bring up the same guys that have struggled unless they've earned another shot already.  I'm merely stating that we know what we have in Milone.  He provides no hope in my mind.  He's not going to be a part of the future and is more of the same with what this team already has in the rotation.  They should be taking this time to see what they do have in the system.  Play the Polanco's and Kepler's when they're up here.  Give Meyer a real opportunity.  I would have liked to see at least one more start from Berrios.  Potentially exposing someone on the 40 man to waivers for the sake of adding Milone back makes no sense to me.

     

    Wins this year mean absolutely nothing.  Work towards the future and play the youth.  That is what provides hope to me.  

    Ok, I'm with you now.  Sorry about that, I misunderstood.

     

    Polanco is the one that probably disturbs me the most.  He's had callups over the past few years and again this year.  And he's produced!  I've also heard he doesn't have the are for SS.  I've watched him play there:  he most definitely has the arm.  I'd definitely like to see MiLB'ers play more when called up.  If nothing else, we'd learn more about what they need to work on.

     

    Sorry, but wins still count for something   ;)

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    If Walker indeed gets the call-up, I'm setting the over/under k% at 53.5% Any takers?

     

    Over, way over. He has a 47.6% strike out rate in the month of May in AAA.

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    There's nothing wrong with admitting failure.  It happens.  Not admitting failure and making it worse trying to avoid admitting it is a much bigger problem that only makes things worse.

    Totallly in agreement.  Unfortunately, people in power don't often see it this way.

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    Ok, I'm with you now.  Sorry about that, I misunderstood.

     

    Polanco is the one that probably disturbs me the most.  He's had callups over the past few years and again this year.  And he's produced!  I've also heard he doesn't have the are for SS.  I've watched him play there:  he most definitely has the arm.  I'd definitely like to see MiLB'ers play more when called up.  If nothing else, we'd learn more about what they need to work on.

     

    Sorry, but wins still count for something   ;)

    No worries, it's been a friendly discussion.   :)  

     

    My biggest concern this year has been the mismanagement of the prospects when they're up here.  Kepler didn't get a legitimate opportunity, Polanco has been abused in my opinion, and Meyer's treatment was a disgrace.  Get these guys up and play them.  Sitting them on the bench makes no sense at all.

     

    I do agree that wins still count for something, but not for the sake of playing veterans over kids just to win.  It's more fun to win, it's more fun to watch them win.  I'll take losses now to get those guys experience so that they can hopefully win a whole lot more in the coming years or even later this year.  Being 40 games or 45 games out at the end of the season isn't a whole lot different.

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    I have sobered up to the fact that Ryan will not shake things up and continue to bang through this miserable season without any significant changes.  Molitor will still be manager by seaons end along with bruno even though this offense will set many Twins records for futility by seasons end.  

     

    On the pitching side of things, we will continue to see short stats from Nolasco whose struggled mightly his WHOLE career with the Twins despite the fact that we have younger options that will be immediately better because of FILTHY FREAKING MONEY!  

     

    They will continue to sign AAA retreads for the bullpen and OF in a futile attempt to save face and avoid 100 losses instead of calling up youngsters for extended tryouts.  Guys like Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Meyer, Chargois, etc.  Not all of them will be ready (see Buxton & Berrios), but you have to give them extended looks to see what hand you've been dealt.  Plopping them on the bench for 5-10 games and then demoting them at a convenient times is not how you handle top prospects.  This is the growing body of evidence that Molitor is impatient and not willing to go through the pain of losing in order to grow.    

     

    What's needed is a manager that will mentor these callups and allow them that initial experience so that 2017 is not a total loss either.  My vote is Doug Mientkiewicz but there are other candidates too.  

     

    Shakes head.  This FO is utterly clueless.  Time to blow this organization up, top to bottom.  The question is when will Jim Pohlad realize that or care.  

    Edited by laloesch
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    Walker = Dave Kingman.  Wish it were Walker = Jim Thome

     

    More like Walker= Joey Gallo, if he's lucky. Since 1945 Gallo has the highest k% of any non pitcher with a minimum of 100 PA. Buxton is 15th on that list and Sano is 21st.

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    Despite striking out in a whopping 44% of his plate appearances, Walker has a better OBP thaaaaan

    Park
    Escobar
    Plouffe
    Dozier
    Suzuki
    Santana
    Centeno
    (Rosario)
    (Button)

     

    Except he's in AAA. And when did we have somebody on the team named Button? Benjamin Button?

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    If Milone is a MLB average pitcher, why did no one claim him? I don't get it.....but they didn't. So, either every team but a handful (who have 5 SPs) are wrong, or we are.

     

    I'd guess nobody wants to pay him $6 mil. 

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    We all seem to want the team to "bring up the kids", but who is playing well enough at AAA to justify a call up outside of Polanco or Beresford? Kepler isn't hitting all that well (.275/.812 OPS), Vargas is hitting .257 and can't field a position, and others have chronicled Walker's severe limitations.  Buxton is hitting but just spent a week on the DL and needs a little more time to get his confidence back after being over matched this year.  There's no one on the pitching staff that has shown much who isn't already here other than a recycled Milone, and maybe Buddy Boshers or Chargois (SSS on him). I could see bringing up Polanco and Beresford except that the only guys hitting on this team are the Nunez and Escobar since he came back. The best call up candidates actually turned out to be Grossman and Kintzler. 

     

    I'm as frustrated as everyone else and want the FO to "do something" but there just isn't much to do. The cavalry over the hill isn't very good or at least isn't ready. This is a tough one - you promote too early and you retard progress.  Frankly, we may be stuck playing the dreck we now have for at least another month or two before we can bring up a few guys and hope for any sort of competence.  This is depressing. 

     

    Yep.  The only thing i can think of is finally cut bait with Nolasco when Gibson comes back.   It is LITERALLY POINTLESS to keep Ricky on the roster anymore.

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    By the way, just read that the Twins called up Boshers, put Perkins on the 60 day DL and put Mastro on 15 day DL (he's still with the team?). Not sure there's much else to do.

    Yep,nothing else to do.

    If only we had a legit bullpen prospect who is striking out 2/3 of the hitters he faces.

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     Kepler isn't hitting all that well (.275/.812 OPS),

     

    Vargas is hitting .257 and can't field a position, and others have chronicled Walker's severe limitations. 

     

     

     Gotta check the trends:

     

    Kepler is heating up in May:

     

    .295/.382/.487/(.869) BB/K= 11/12

     

    Vargas is on fire in May:

     

    .329/.457/.616/(1.074) 6 HR 9 XBH BB/K= 18/17

     

    Vargas last 10 days:

     

    .395/.477/.842/(1.319)

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    Yep,nothing else to do.
    If only we had a legit bullpen prospect who is striking out 2/3 of the hitters he faces.

     

    Shag-wah has to wait his turn behind Buddy, then Runzler, then Wimmers... then, ahh what's the use?

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    We all seem to want the team to "bring up the kids", but who is playing well enough at AAA to justify a call up outside of Polanco or Beresford? Kepler isn't hitting all that well (.275/.812 OPS), Vargas is hitting .257 and can't field a position, and others have chronicled Walker's severe limitations.  Buxton is hitting but just spent a week on the DL and needs a little more time to get his confidence back after being over matched this year.  There's no one on the pitching staff that has shown much who isn't already here other than a recycled Milone, and maybe Buddy Boshers or Chargois (SSS on him). I could see bringing up Polanco and Beresford except that the only guys hitting on this team are the Nunez and Escobar since he came back. The best call up candidates actually turned out to be Grossman and Kintzler. 

     

    I'm as frustrated as everyone else and want the FO to "do something" but there just isn't much to do. The cavalry over the hill isn't very good or at least isn't ready. This is a tough one - you promote too early and you retard progress.  Frankly, we may be stuck playing the dreck we now have for at least another month or two before we can bring up a few guys and hope for any sort of competence.  This is depressing. 

    My only real rebuttal to your points is to give the kids they do call up an actual opportunity.  Don't sit them on the bench rotting.  Actually play them.  Every day.  Buxton is the only one that got a real opportunity in my view.  If they struggle, they struggle.  They at least get a taste.  They figure out what it takes to be a MLB player.  

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    By the way, just read that the Twins called up Boshers, put Perkins on the 60 day DL and put Mastro on 15 day DL (he's still with the team?). Not sure there's much else to do. 

    Don't forget about the power signing of Sean Burnett. If Burnett can string together a few good games I'm sure TR would be pretty tempted to lock him up on something like a 5yr $20 million contract or something sneaky like that....

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    Further update: Strib reports Kepler just went on the DL with a groin strain. Give him 15 days plus at least 2 weeks to "round back into shape" - no chance of seeing him until July.  Vargas?  Really?  And play him where? He can't field a lick, so he can't play IB.  Trade him out for Park so he can DH?  Park's a better bet at this point. Besides, we've seen the Vargas movie and know how it's likely to end - a fewextra base hits and a lot of strikeouts. 

     

    Did I say to call them up? I merely pointed out that season-long numbers can be deceiving towards where players are currently trending.

     

    Vargas could become the DH/PH specialist if- Mauer is moved to the OF, Park to 1B. And another position would open up if Plouffe were traded and Sano moved to 3B- or if, as the Twins seem to be threatening, if Sano is demoted.

     

    Not saying any of this will happen, Vargas is likely in the permanent doghouse, based on the results on and off the field last year.

    Edited by jokin
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    I would try to trade Nolasco to an NL team and tell them you will pay all of his salary in exchange for a dumpster fire.  At least then we can say that we actually have a dumpster fire.

     

     

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    I agree with this - give them a chance when they come up (although that might mean you have to fire the manager). My point is that only Polanco and Beresford are really playing at a level that shows they should get that chance and might be successful. Also, Buxton soon if he keeps it up. The late June OF - Grossman, Buxton and Santana. 

     

    I fear that Grossman will revert to the mean and be a mirage in the mirror by late June. Where do you project Sano to be playing by late June? Arcia?

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    If Danny Santana is in the late June OF in a corner spot I quit.  I'm done watching.

    Yeah, my watching has been dialed back about 90% and my going to 2-3 games a year is going to be zero this year. Not sure how this team is #22 in attendence

    Edited by tobi0040
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    Yeah, my watching has been dialed back about 90% and my going to 2-3 games a year is going to be zero this year. Not sure how this team is #22 in attendence

     

    I've been watching more than I should... I think it's partly the whole train wreck / can't look away factor.  But at some point for my health I need to stop, and that point might be when Buxton is called back up and Danny Santana continues to play

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    I've been watching more than I should... I think it's partly the whole train wreck / can't look away factor.  But at some point for my health I need to stop, and that point might be when Buxton is called back up and Danny Santana continues to play

     

    For the sake of my kids and marriage, I've cut back about 60%. I can't handle the rage/depression switching. It's brutal. I wish I had a better word.

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