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  • This Season Is a Culmination of the Front Office's Successes


    Nick Nelson

    With just one weekend left in the 2020 regular season, the Minnesota Twins are right where they want to be. They're 13 games above .500, on track for the division title, and all but assured home field advantage in the postseason's first round.

    It's not by accident. Many of the driving forces in this team's success – and bright outlook – are directly attributable to the front office's masterful execution of a grand plan.

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    What we're seeing this year is the same thing we saw last year: an elite team, loaded with talent and performing at an extraordinarily high level. There's plenty of credit to go around, but it's hard to ignore the direct impact of moves made by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine over the past couple years. And I'm talking beyond their broader work building out the organization's infrastructure, and investing in innovation.

    Here are five decisions that loom large as the Twins charge toward the postseason:

    1. Hiring Rocco Baldell as manager and Wes Johnson as pitching coach.

    The entire coaching staff seems quite effective, really, but these two stand out.

    Baldelli was the deserving recipient of AL Manager of the Year in 2019, his first season at the helm, and he's in the running for it again. The Twins definitely took a chance on Rocco, replacing a local legend in Paul Molitor with a total outsider who became the youngest skipper in the game. Their faith has been validated at every level. Baldelli is a brilliant tactical manager with tremendous strategic vision, and his ability to connect with players – stuffing out drama and constantly maintaining an even-keeled vibe – is uncanny.

    Selecting Johnson as pitching coach required a leap of faith on its own for the Twins. He became the first person ever to jump into the major-league role straight of out college, and Wes brought with him new-age philosophies. He was known at Arkansas as an instructor who could truly elevate performance, and he has translated this knack to the highest level. Roster-building has of course played a part (and we'll get to that) but under Johnson, Twins pitchers are throwing harder, dominating more, and consistently reaching their potential.

    2. Building a power bullpen.

    A deep and dominant bullpen was key to the World Series run from Derek Falvey's Cleveland Indians in 2016. When he took over the Twins afterward, the relief corps he inherited was a far cry. But over the course of these past four years, Minnesota's bullpen has been gradually upgraded and enhanced. The past year alone has seen a dramatic overhaul; consider that their Opening Day bullpen in 2019 consisted of Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryne Harper, Martín Pérez, and Adalberto Mejía.

    This radically reconstructed Twins bullpen is currently tied with Tampa Bay for first in the majors in fWAR. They're fifth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and fifth in strikeout rate. It's a top-tier unit by almost any measure, helping the Twins weather frequent bullpen games without much issue.

    The origin stories vary for this collection of standouts, but each one has the front office's fingerprints all over it.

    There was Sergio Romo, acquired at the deadline last year and re-signed as a free agent during the offseason. Caleb Thielbar was more or less talked out of retirement, and he has come back more effective than ever before. Matt Wisler was claimed off waivers, and has been reinvented as an overpowering weapon with his unsolvable slider. Jorge Alcala came over in a 2018 trade. Tyler Clippard was plucked from the rival Indians as a free agent. Tyler Duffey was an incumbent who finally unlocked his potential.

    It all adds up to a bullpen that's been a phenomenal asset, and a crucial contributor to the team's success.

    3. Signing Nelson Cruz

    I think we can safely say it's the best free agent signing in franchise history. (A sentimental fan might point to Jack Morris, but I'd heartily disagree.) Cruz signed for a relatively modest sum two offseasons ago, and immediately became the heart and soul of this team, with his likability and leadership qualities somehow overshadowing back-to-back MVP-caliber performances on the field.

    We're already seeing the impact of Josh Donaldson, who became the front office's new marquee signing over the winter, and I hope we'll continue to see it for years to come. But nothing can contend right now with the impact of Cruz. He's been an absolute revelation.

    4. Drafting Ryan Jeffers

    Many outside observers considered it a reach when the Twins used the 59th overall pick in 2018 to select Jeffers, a slugging college catcher out of UNC-Wilmington whose defensive skills were generally considered suspect. The Twins saw something different, and two years later they've been proven 100% correct.

    Despite having zero experience above Double-A, and having had no opportunity to play in real games this summer, Jeffers stepped in after Mitch Garver got hurt and has looked like a natural. His smoothness and confidence behind the plate are shocking for a 23-year-old rookie, as his keen eye at the plate. He rarely chases outside of the zone and has shown the ability to absolutely decimate baseballs when he squares up. His pitch-framing ranks in the 85th percentile of all major leaguers according to Statcast.

    Jeffers has instantly settled in as an above-average MLB catcher, and what he did as a rookie while both Garver and Alex Avila were sidelined should not be overlooked as a major factor in the team's success this year. Jeffers may very well start behind the plate for Game 1 in the playoffs.

    5. Acquiring Kenta Maeda

    Falvey and Levine set out this past offseason with one guiding mission: upgrade the rotation. That meant adding a pitcher better than José Berríos or Jake Odorizzi, who were both All-Stars last season, as well as Michael Pineda, who was also brought back with a savvy deal during the offseason.

    Initially, Falvey and Levine set their sights on Zack Wheeler (wisely, it seems – he's currently 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA for the Phillies). When he chose to go elsewhere, they reportedly engaged with other free agents but weren't too aggressive. The Twins weren't going to commit a historic contract, or trade a premium talent, unless they felt confident in what they were getting back.

    They felt confident in Maeda, and they have been rewarded.

    By almost any worthwhile measure, the right-hander has been a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Already a dominant force against righty hitters, Maeda has unlocked a new level of effectiveness against lefties by tweaking his pitch mix, with help from the Twins (and Johnson).

    He's been an ace under any definition of the word, and while it hurts to give up an arm like Brusdar Graterol, even there we find signs of a responsible, proactive front office. Alcala, whom they acquired as a prospect two years ago, has filled the role of young fireballer with the triple-digit heater and ferocious slider, and he's doing it equally well.

    Maeda will be Minnesota's Game 1 starter in the playoffs. Alcala will be one of the first arms out of the bullpen. Jeffers might start behind the plate. Cruz will (hopefully) bat in the heart of the lineup.

    Like I said, this front office's fingerprints are all over a fantastic 2020 Twins team that's well positioned to make some serious noise in October. Take a bow, Falvine and Co.

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    One more thing on this topic generally: this FO has done a really good job of raising the floor on the team. While you do need to have top-end talent and performers in order to win a title, one of the best and cheapest things you can do to improve your team is to stop giving AB and innings to bad players. Making sure that you have depth to replace your best players when they need rest or go down with an injury with at least adequate players, or guys that you can slide into platoon kinds of roles and not get them exposed is really important. And that's something this FO has really worked on.

     

    That's why you sign an Alex Avila: he's a great platoon fit for someone like Garver (or even Jeffers). It's not a move that moves the needle in an obvious way, it's not flashy...but it gives you depth and options. It's why the Marwin move was so good: he wasn't signed to start, but to be the super-utility guy who can plug in and fix any problem you're having at like 4-5 spots on the field.

     

    That depth is showing in the rotation this year: we haven't had to hope and pray that Lewis Thorpe or Smeltzer or Littell could figure it out in the rotation and hold things down despite having injuries to starters; instead it's been a spot start not handing them the job. Homer Bailey wasn't bad...and got designated for assignment. But he was an insurance policy. It's a big change to have legit options battling for a 5th spot in the rotation, instead of needing an unproven guy to step up and fill the 3rd spot.

     

    Raising the floor has been something this FO has done very well, and it's something that will continue to pay dividends down the line if/when young players become stars.

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    The only question is how is Jeffers considered a top framer?  I'm a definite fan of his, and have followed him from Elizabethton on up and have been impressed with his drive, determination, and improvement (especially defensively).  That being said, when you watch him frame, he is lifting and pulling that ball back into the zone that any amateur umpire could recognize.  If what he's doing constitutes a great framer, so be it.

    I’ve had the same thoughts. Garver used to do something similar (among other things) and would lose strikes for the pitchers and then they got him to mostly stop doing it. With Jeffers it seems to be the opposite 

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    Wes Johnson, Levine, Falvey: Clearly the pitching has improved greatly from their pitch to contact days. Taking a gamble on Wes has so far paid off. I’ve liked the FO drafting bats over pitchers. That’s what I would do if I were running it (though not in every case, BPA matters). I wanted pitching in 2017 (Wright/Gore) and 2020 and in 2019 I wanted a different SS. As long as they trade for pitching or sign FA’s...

     

    That brings me to Maeda who I absolutely wanted especially for only Graterol. I’ve been thinking Graterol is a reliever only for several years and was going to continue that until he proved otherwise and it seems like he was never going to prove otherwise.  I get having a good/great BP is important, but I would always ALWAYS trade a reliever for a number three or better starter. Good starters are way harder to find than relievers especially for the Twins. The fact that Maeda has been even better than I expected, and I had pretty high expectations, makes it even better. 
     

    Cruz: I used to be in the camp of “don’t clog up a spot with a guy who can’t play defense, even the DH spot.” It made sense to me to give a good regular some rest but not a full day of rest to keep his bat in. Then when the Twins signed Cruz I saw a graphic (May have been MLB Network) that showed the Twins DH stats within the last so many years vs Cruz’s stats in the same time frame. The Twins DH production was absolutely pathetic. Yes, comparing it to Cruz was probably a little unfair as he’s been a stud for years but maaaaan it was bad. I will never think like that again. Always have a consistent great bat at DH even if it means he doesn’t play defense. 

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    I like what you are getting at. I agree with almost all of it. It would be nice though to win the playoffs ever. That part is the last thing that needs to come together.

     

    Also, Jack Morris cannot be argued against by anyone in being the best FA Twins signing. I don't know if you recall, but he pitched the most important and best game in baseball history. Literally a 10 inning gem that hasn't and won't be closed to replicated ever. 

     

    I LOVE Cruz, but that one game alone makes him the best FA signing in Twins history. 

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    From what I can tell, there's a telltale sign that separates the good and bad framers.

     

    Bad: Glove starts in the zone, moves out of the zone, then pulls the ball back into the zone.

     

    Good: Glove starts outside the zone, moves towards zone while catching the ball. 

     

    For the bad framers, the umpires see the glove move out and back into the zone, suggesting the pitch was a ball. For the good framers, their movement makes it appear that the pitch was in the zone. 

     

    I feel this is most noticeable with low pitches, especially breaking balls at the bottom of the zone.

    I welcome the use of the electronic strike zone.  I don't want to hear "it's not perfect yet."  What I want to hear is "it's more accurate than what humans are doing," and that's an improvement. 

     

    JcS

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    Nick wrote a very good article. The front office has created a good product both on and off the field.  The one thing I question is Morneau as an announcer. Probably the worst that I’ve listened to...too much non-stop talk and too much analysis. Bert had some humor and color. I put the sound down so that it is mumbled.

    This would not be a problem for most people but when you watch all the games........?

    Yeah, I tend to watch them after they have started, and that 10 second advance feature on MLB.TV on my computer is great.  I get to see all the pitches, but don't have to listen to all the jabber. 

     

    JcS

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    This front office has improved the squad leaps and bounds over the past regime, and has entrenched this team as a very good team the last two seasons. The farm system has been fixed, we're seeing a trend in consistently improving pitchers' potentials, and they've made some smart moves on the market. 

     

    That being said, we ain't in this to win divisions. We need to be a World Series contender. Underachieving in the playoffs should not be tolerated. I'm hoping to see some more willingness to trade prospects for players who can be difference makers in the postseason. I hope Rocco can improve his abilities as a manager and learn from the mistakes that have happened in the past.

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    Before the this apotheosis goes too far, let us remember after game one loss in this year's Wild Card round, Falvey is now 0-5 in the postseason. Baldelli is 0-4. So they are becoming a pretty substantial part of the 17 game record postseason losing streak - Falvey 29% of it and Baldelli is attached to 23.5% of it.

     

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    Before the this apotheosis goes too far, let us remember after game one loss in this year's Wild Card round, Falvey is now 0-5 in the postseason. Baldelli is 0-4. So they are becoming a pretty substantial part of the 17 game record postseason losing streak - Falvey 29% of it and Baldelli is attached to 23.5% of it.

     

    Mid level picks. Cheap signings, never trading for top talent, being safe. 

     

    This all leads to good regular season teams. But when it's your studs vs their studs, the Twins continually fall short. At some point they need to identify guys that can get it done in the postseason.

     

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