The Twins (Still) Have a Velocity Problem

What you did not cover is our Tommy John rate with hard throwers.  Our prospect list is half IL list. 

This has become the most overrated factor ( was going to say crap) in modern baseball. There is so much more to effective pitching but people have one track minds on this topic. Here’s a wild thought: how about pitchers having an idea where they are throwing the ball?

This is just my personal belief, but I think real good rotations and staffs have a combination of all types of pitchers.  So the White Sox were brought up, but Dallas Kuechel definitely does not fit that velocity category but he fits into their rotation.  So they have a guy like Giolito, then a Lefty like Rodon, and then you sandwich a soft tossing ground baller in-between them and I feel that with the different looks and different types of pitchers can confuse hitters a little.  I mean they aren't going to be literally confused, it's just that one day you hear up for that velo guy and the next day you got some guy hitting the inside of your bat with junk and the hitters never quite get comfortable.  So as far as the Twins go, Maeda is that soft tosser, and they realistically need a couple of hard throwers to go around him.  So the Twins definitely need some help with the velo guys.  But a team overall don't need to have all velo guys to be good.  I feel they need a combination of all types of pitchers.

On another note, I was listening to Dan O'Dowd on MLB channel.  He mentioned when he was a GM they were always going after velo.  But he said often times those velo guys just couldn't find the strike zone.  So he said he had been talking with a lot of GM's and with pitching coaches nowadays they are able to take a guy and add quite a bit of velo with different mechanics and added strength, etc.... That a lot of the times guys who have real good command that don't necessarily throw super hard but show promise to gain velo are often coveted, because it's much harder to teach command, it's a lot t easier to teach velocity.  So you can get a strike thrower who throws 90 and get him to 95 - 97.  But it is really hard to get a guy who throws 100 but can't throw strikes, to learn how to throw strikes.  It was just interesting to listen to him talk about that stuff.  Again, the Twins don't seem to be teaching their pitchers to throw harder in the minors.  So again the Twins are behind, but probably more so in development and not necessarily from not drafting velo guys.  Again just my opinion.

  On 7/13/2021 at 5:10 AM, Twodogs said:

This is just my personal belief, but I think real good rotations and staffs have a combination of all types of pitchers.  So the White Sox were brought up, but Dallas Kuechel definitely does not fit that velocity category but he fits into their rotation.  So they have a guy like Giolito, then a Lefty like Rodon, and then you sandwich a soft tossing ground baller in-between them and I feel that with the different looks and different types of pitchers can confuse hitters a little.  I mean they aren't going to be literally confused, it's just that one day you hear up for that velo guy and the next day you got some guy hitting the inside of your bat with junk and the hitters never quite get comfortable.  So as far as the Twins go, Maeda is that soft tosser, and they realistically need a couple of hard throwers to go around him.  So the Twins definitely need some help with the velo guys.  But a team overall don't need to have all velo guys to be good.  I feel they need a combination of all types of pitchers.

 

On another note, I was listening to Dan O'Dowd on MLB channel.  He mentioned when he was a GM they were always going after velo.  But he said often times those velo guys just couldn't find the strike zone.  So he said he had been talking with a lot of GM's and with pitching coaches nowadays they are able to take a guy and add quite a bit of velo with different mechanics and added strength, etc.... That a lot of the times guys who have real good command that don't necessarily throw super hard but show promise to gain velo are often coveted, because it's much harder to teach command, it's a lot t easier to teach velocity.  So you can get a strike thrower who throws 90 and get him to 95 - 97.  But it is really hard to get a guy who throws 100 but can't throw strikes, to learn how to throw strikes.  It was just interesting to listen to him talk about that stuff.  Again, the Twins don't seem to be teaching their pitchers to throw harder in the minors.  So again the Twins are behind, but probably more so in development and not necessarily from not drafting velo guys.  Again just my opinion.

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I was listening to an interview with one of the Twins developmental guys.  He mentioned they had a "Velo Camp" and a "Command Camp".  Perhaps someone here knows more about these camps.  Some of our prospects have definitely picked up some velocity.  Ober was high 80s.  Canterino and Winder picked up some velo and I have read Rijo has added a couple MPH.  I suspect there are others.  Anyone know more about these camps.

It would be interesting to see what percentage of SPs exceed 97 with any consistency, especially among higher WAR SPs.  Obviously, the percentage is much higher in BPs.  They just chose a guy largely because he can throw 96+ but how much focus belongs on the ability to throw 97-100 for SPs.  Is this focus better placed on the BP and what practices could aid in indentify and developing high velo BP arms?

How extreme were the 2019 and 2020 staffs?

Great article, Tom, and awesome info!

  On 7/13/2021 at 12:48 PM, Tom Froemming said:

% of pitches 96+ mph the past three years

2021: Twins 4.5, MLB 8.8
2020: Twins 3.8, MLB 7.8
2019: Twins 3.2, MLB 7.4

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2021: Twins 4.5, MLB 8.8 = 4.3 difference
2020: Twins 3.8, MLB 7.8 = 4.0 difference
2019: Twins 3.2, MLB 7.4 = 4.2 difference

Yup. Relatively, basically treading water, even though slightly increased.

When will MLB start the "pitching velocity derby" to go with the home-run derby? 

  On 7/13/2021 at 3:08 PM, nicksaviking said:

I couldn't disagree more. Missing bats is the most effective way to keep batters from reaching base and missing bats tends to rely on velocity and movement. If the Twins solely rely on movement because they don't have the velocity, they're tying one hand behind their back trying to prevent runs.

I mean I get it, I remember baseball more fondly from when I grew up watching it in the 80's and early 90's when a 15.0 K% was just fine and dandy, but if the other 29 teams aren't going to play baseball games out of sentimental fondness, the Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games.

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I don't think anyone here or the Twins don't find value in velocity, especially given their 1st round pick.  However, they did pick 26th this year and 27th the year before.  They had the same velocity deficit and still had one of the best W/L records.  I am not sure we can say with certainty that the "Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games" if they don't have as many flame throwers.  Also, batters are adjusting to the velocity so will velocity have a diminishing return as hitters adjust?  I would love to have our own Jacob DeGrom but so would just about every other team.  Guys with that velocity and all the other attributes that make pitchers successful are VERY hard to find.  Putting too much weight on that one trait probably does not result in developing a lot of pitching.

  On 7/13/2021 at 3:08 PM, nicksaviking said:

I couldn't disagree more. The other teams aren't lacking control just because they are throwing harder, the other teams have found a balance. This is a Twins problem, not a MLB problem.

Missing bats is the most effective way to keep batters from reaching base and missing bats tends to rely on velocity and movement. If the Twins solely rely on movement because they don't have the velocity, they're tying one hand behind their back trying to prevent runs.

I mean I get it, I remember baseball more fondly from when I grew up watching it in the 80's and early 90's when a 15.0 K% was just fine and dandy, but if the other 29 teams aren't going to play baseball games out of sentimental fondness, the Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games.

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Obviously if all things are equal you want someone who throws harder but you can miss bats with movement and location as well. Berrios is a prime example. If he threw 97 instead of 93 he would be slightly better. If he had better command he would be an ace. Jorge Alcala isn’t going to get better by throwing harder he will get better by improving his control. If he doesn’t he won’t be any better than he is right now. 

I’d be curious to see if the low raw number of high velocity pitches has to do with usage. Do the Twins throw more breaking and off speed stuff than other teams? That could be a factor. That said, I suspect that even if they throw relatively fewer fastballs, it’s still probably not enough to account for such a stark velo difference from the rest of the league. 

  On 7/14/2021 at 4:34 AM, prouster said:

I’d be curious to see if the low raw number of high velocity pitches has to do with usage. Do the Twins throw more breaking and off speed stuff than other teams? That could be a factor. That said, I suspect that even if they throw relatively fewer fastballs, it’s still probably not enough to account for such a stark velo difference from the rest of the league. 

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Other teams have had BP guys who rely on velocity.  The Twins had guys like Wisler, Romo, and Thielbar among others.  That's going to shape  the numbers.

So the real question may be HOW can an organization miss out on this staple of baseball importance for basically the entire franchises history? 
It seems that they have always been heavy on bat first players, especially corner guys. There seems, over the years, to be a dearth of two things. High level pitching, and shortstops that this outfit has developed. 
Dare I use the M word? Money. High level pitching costs a lot. An awful lot. I won’t get into the woulda shoulda, but all pitchers aren’t home grown on the velocity lists. And the acquired ones likely were out of our price range. Add the fact that some won’t play in a town where the bright lights don’t shine. 
Lastly, in the past it seeems to be when given a choice between drafting a high velocity pitcher and a hitter of relative potential, the team has opted for the bat. But maybe that’s just my perception? 

  On 7/14/2021 at 6:27 PM, Dodecahedron said:

Probably, but the theory is that the offspeed stuff only works when coupled with a bit of heat.  Santana's fastballs were usually not anything special, but he was masterful at changing speeds, among the other things he was masterful at.

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That’s definitely how pitchers have traditionally done it. These days I think we’re seeing more and more guys work primarily off their breaking pitches, e.g. McCullers and Wisler. Just something I wanted to throw out there.