The Twins Steal The Greatest Living Hitter

If you are grasping for straws to keep you interested in the Minnesota Twins, Grossman’s performance has been a welcomed distraction. It is like standing in the middle of a dumpster fire and suddenly a light drizzle breaks out. It isn’t much but, hey, this spray is refreshing for the moment.

The question that everyone asks regarding the switch-hitting Grossman is whether this production is legitimate breakout or some BABIP-driven mirage. The answer is obviously, yes, it is a little bit of both. There is no doubt that there will be some normalization in his numbers. After all, over the last two games, Grossman has gone 0-for-8 and watched his batting average tumble 30 points. He is not David Ortiz.

In terms of his secondary numbers -- things like batted ball types and plate discipline -- Grossman’s 2016 looks surprisingly similar to the rest of his major league experience across the board. When someone has a breakout of this caliber, typically you will see the tightening of the swing zone or a sizeable shift in line drives, but his approach shows few signs of change. Outside of a slight reduction in his chase rate, all the metrics and indicators appear the same. The results tell a different story.

For starters, only Bryce Harper has drawn walks in a higher percentage of his plate appearances than Grossman has. This feels like a completely bananas statement. Sure there’s a sample size caveat attached but it is still weird to see at the top of the charts. In Harper’s case, teams don’t want him to smash the ball into putty so they avoid his swing zone as best they can. That’s understandable. Grossman, on the other hand, works his.

Grossman’s plate discipline skill is nothing new. According to Baseball America, he earned the title of “Best Strike Zone Discipline” in 2011 in the Florida State League (where he drew a walk in 17% of his plate appearances and 104 total free passes in a season) and again in 2012 while in the Eastern League (where he drew a walk in 14% of his plate appearances). Part of that was due to his upbringing as a switch-hitter and part of that he credited to the Pirates organization.

“I was with Pittsburgh before and they were big on [plate discipline] and did a lot of drills,” Grossman told Astros’ reporters prior to the 2014 season. “They emphasized that. It was part of my game I always had. It helps me tremendously.”

Being able to work the count in his favor has always part of his DNA. He profiled as a walks guy. He just needed some help from the pitchers to get a little loosey-goosey and this year they have obliged. Take a look at Grossman in 3-ball count situations:

In the past, pitchers threw him strikes in 3-ball counts at the normal rate. This season, for whatever reason, pitchers are not filling up the zone at the same pace. What is interesting is that Grossman has seen fewer fastballs in those situations and a slight increase in offspeed and breaking balls -- an indication that teams are not comfortable tossing him a middle-middle heater. Part of the reason for that may be because Grossman has been tagging fastballs (his .455 average against the cheese is the fourth highest in baseball) and part of it because he has been swinging a hot bat and had the ice cold sticks of Byung Ho Park and Oswaldo Arcia batting behind him.

Speaking of the hot hitting, where the hell did that come from, you ask.

When Grossman was developing as a prospect, he caught the attention of evaluators because of his gaudy walk rate. While most prospect analysts agreed that his plate discipline made them smitten, Grossman’s hit tool had never profiled well enough to project as an everyday corner outfielder.

“The biggest issue with Grossman,” then-Baseball Prospectus prospect guru and future Houston Astros employee Kevin Goldstein wrote in a 2012 chat, “is that he is a corner outfielder without classic corner power.”

Goldstein’s eventual replacement as Baseball Prospectus’ prospect guru, Jason Parks, also agreed with the assessment. “Grossman can certainly play in the big leagues,” Parks said, “I’m just not sure I see a regular.”

For two seasons, the Astros gave him 710 plate appearances to make a name for himself and Grossman did fine-ish. He posted middling batting averages and below average power figures but managed to be decent when it came to his on-base percentage (once again buoyed by his ability to take walks). He exercised good zone judgment but he didn’t exactly inspire fear with the bat. So Grossman went in to the 2015 season looking to improve in that area.

Usually in the face of big time breakout, we will see an overhaul of swing. JD Martinez -- another talented Houston Astro who was granted free agency -- reworked his swing to provide more power and is thriving in Detroit. At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman recently profiled Danny Valencia’s alterations that allowed for more contact and pop. In Grossman’s case, he did make adjustments to his swing; however most were minor, focusing on efficiency and not a reinvention.

"I'm trying to be as efficient as I can every swing," Grossman told MLB.com reporter Brian McTaggart last spring training. "[in 2014], I had some different things going on with my swing where I had to be almost perfect every time I had to swing the bat, and I second-guessed myself a lot."

Since he takes the bulk of his plate appearances from the left-side, let’s take a look at that swing and how it changed heading into the 2015 season. Grossman’s offseason work led to him getting rid of a bat tip at the point of his leg lift as well as refraining from drifting forward on his front leg after the leg lift (watch his knee straighten in the first clip). What does this do? Removing the bat tip allows him to be on-time more -- not having to be “almost perfect” with every swing - and not drifting forward keeps power in the hips.

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/743156090724978688

Here’s another question: If he made the changes heading into the 2015 season, why did he hit like such crap in the Astros organization? Why wasn’t he crushing the ball when he was given regular at-bats with their AAA team? There is no good explanation for that. Sometimes when players make adjustments it requires an acclimation process -- getting comfortable and getting confident.

In some ways, he was like the Astros’ version of Aaron Hicks. Grossman had a similar strong eye at the plate that was often judged as being too passive. Hicks was able to draw walks but the Twins wanted him to be aggressive in hitter's counts, a message that was given to him each time he was sent back to the minors. While Grossman was good at working deep counts, they wanted him to attack too. It is only recently have we seen that come to fruition.

One of the upsides of being a ballclub so far out of the race is that you have an unique opportunity to explore flotsam talent; those players left behind on the waiver wires or granted free agency simply because other teams were too flush with depth. Grossman has done well showcasing his abilities and appears to have the foundation to be a decent contributor.