The Twins Should Pursue Starting Pitching Aggressively in the Trade Market This Offseason

There may not be a LOT of FA Starting Pitchers we should be interested in, but there is ONE GUY that would be a difference maker...Trevor Bauer.  If you want to go head to head with Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, Blake Snell/Tyler Glasnow, ETC...you need a guy like Bauer.  I would argue that the idea of dealing Sano, dealing or releasing Rosario, parting ways with Marwan allows the Twins to offer Bauer $30-$35 million in a one year contract.  With Kiriloff, Rooker, Jeffers, and possibly Blankenhorn or Royce Lewis on the team (and possibly a Colina or Chalmers in the BP) there is ALL SORTS of payroll flexibility.  I don't disagree with the idea of trading for additional starting pitching.  I don't want to take anything off the table.  But I see the Twins entering a period of a "skinny" rebuild by aggressively promoting young talent to play and learn next to guys like Cruz, Donaldson etc...

The playoffs have actually demonstrated that rookies and young pitchers can get you to the top if they are good enough so we have to look hard at the Duran, Balazovic potential.  

There may not be a LOT of FA Starting Pitchers we should be interested in, but there is ONE GUY that would be a difference maker...Trevor Bauer.  If you want to go head to head with Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, Blake Snell/Tyler Glasnow, ETC...you need a guy like Bauer.  I would argue that the idea of dealing Sano, dealing or releasing Rosario, parting ways with Marwan allows the Twins to offer Bauer $30-$35 million in a one year contract.  With Kiriloff, Rooker, Jeffers, and possibly Blankenhorn or Royce Lewis on the team (and possibly a Colina or Chalmers in the BP) there is ALL SORTS of payroll flexibility.  I don't disagree with the idea of trading for additional starting pitching.  I don't want to take anything off the table.  But I see the Twins entering a period of a "skinny" rebuild by aggressively promoting young talent to play and learn next to guys like Cruz, Donaldson etc...

I normally cringe when I see comments proposing that the Twins spend big dollars on veteran starting pitchers. But your comment above actually makes sense, at least to me. 

I expect the Twins payroll in 2021 will be less than this year, perhaps a lot less. But should they cut ties with one of several players to make room for a prospect, they just might be able to free up $30mm for a one year contract with Bauer. And one year is the only way I would be comfortable with big dollars to a pitcher.

And who knows, the Twins might be high on Bauer's list of teams he would like to play for. He is familiar with the Twins, they are a contender and he wouldn't have to pitch to Max Kepler. 

I agree w/ you but last year was a good year to trade away some redundant prospects but never happened (some people ideas of redundant are different, some people thought Jeffers was redundant). So unfortunately  I don`t think that will happen. 

I don’t see them trading significant prospects or going after any big names. I don’t think the glut of offensive talent is as great as some think....there are significant past and current injury/age issues at nearly every position. Donaldson and Buxton are the obvious ones. Polanco has been dealing with ankle issues since the second half of 2019. Arraez knee issues. Rosario and Kepler have both missed significant time or had their performance affected in in 2019-2020. Garver has struggled with injuries in 2019-2020 (if he’s even a good player remains to be seen). Cruz is nearing the mid-century mark. If you start dealing guys, especially our MLB ready hitters, things could get ugly next year (like, starting Jake Cave in centerfield ugly....which has happened in both 2019 and 2020).

The real killer here to this path is Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. getting no real game action in 2020. As an opposing GM, I’d have a hard time looking back two years for their most recent live AB. If I’m the Twins, I have a hard time dealing a known commodity to plug in Larnach or Lewis (After seeing Kirilloff in the playoffs, I’d be OK with him).

For those reasons I have a shed time seeing them moving significant offensive pieces (other than Rosario). Also, contenders on a budget don’t trade away quality cost controlled players.

Alll that said, I think are a number of free agents I wouldn’t mind taking a flier on.

A guy like Stroman is intriguing. I see them going a route like that. They’re just not bringing on significant salary at this point. You still possibly have Duran ready. I’m fine rolling with Dobnak in the 5 hole.

Assuming the Twins part ways with Rosario, Odorizzi, Hill and Gonzales, along with the already dropped Bailey, the Twins free up almost $45M from the 2020 payroll. That should be enough for Trevor Bauer and a few other pieces.

Please, not Trevor Bauer. Even though I am have never met the man, I believe he is a headcase extraordinaire. 

Not sure there is too much out there for Trade on what Twins have and willing to depart with.  Eddie will not be traded for a quality SP or even part of any group that would, unless he is more of a throw in.  He does not have the value a team that is stacked with pitching would be looking for, and no rebuilding team would want him.

Sano may have some interest in a team that think they can get him to make more contact, but at this point I do not see any blockbuster involving him.  So that brings us to prospects, much like how we got Meada last year.  We are not getting top end starter for anyone other than Lewis most likely because hitting corner OF are not too hard to come by these days that they would be worth major trade.  

You list a few in the article worth looking at, but the teams you listed are not ones that will be looking for prospects most likely, they are in trying to win now mode, well LA has been that way for long time, just never seem to be winning.  

Of course they should look and make calls, but I do not see much happening trade wise for top arm.  Now FA we could push big for Bauer on 1 year, if he truly is just looking for the biggest money for 1 year. 

First of all, BIG ^5 to Darius for a great post! Especially having no milb season this past year, just counting on or young talent or expecting it to step forward and perform in 2021 to high standards is a fools errand. Let them earn a spot and push for a spot.

Secondly I'm addressing the OP 50/50 on a trade situation scenario. But let's address the Bauer idea first. Now that he's a full fledged FA, I have serious doubts he's locked on the idea of a 1yr deal any longer. He's a smart guy. If someone offers him a 5-6-7yr deal worth $25-30M plus he's going to turn it down and just continue to get on himself? I just don't see it. Now, if he really wants a 1yr deal then give him a call. You can maybe/probably afford said 1yr deal as a "go for it" season. He might even like the Twins chances and the FO and have them near the top of his list. I just don't see it happening.

So back to me being 50/50 on a trade idea. Is there another Maeda deal the FO has in mind? Go for it! But for that matter, the Odorizzi deal a couple years ago was cheap, smart and worked out very well. We absolutely need another quality arm to fill out the top 4 spots in the rotation. And there is system-wide depth to make a move like this.

But I'm going to continue to argue that the right guy is right under our noses in Odorizzi. Why does everyone dismiss him so easily? He was solid in 2018 and made adjustments and was borderline outstanding for most of 2019. My goodness, he even made the All Star game in '19. (I recognize he slipped some late last year, but then looked better late and was solid in his playoff start). His 2020 was a complete and utter washout year. But we're talking about a stiff back, a shot to his chest and then some sort of blister or fingernail issue. We are not talking a shoulder, elbow, labrum, knee or another lingering health issue. If this was a full season, he very likely would have ended up being healthy for at least a half season and been a real boon to the rotation.

Does he want to get on himself for 1yr? Is that all he gets offered? Is there a good and practical 3yr deal for him? If we open with Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and Odorizzi as our top 4...debate Who the 3/4 guy is...I'm really happy with that!

Then you use FA to find yourself a decent, interesting option to compete for the 5th spot with Dobnak and prospects and if nothing else, help keep the seat warm.

Where I'm interested in a trade is for a RP. I am not saying we will ACTUALLY GET a Nathan or Pressly, but could Rosario, Cave in a package, a couple of solid prospects in a deal, bring in a talented set-up arm to add to the pen with potential? I'd still look to bring May back unless his market goes nuts...which I just don't expect...but would love to add one more quality arm with experience and maybe some upside.

I'd let Romo go at this point I think. Again, really like May back. But look for a BP arm that may be ready for the next level via trade. Clippard back very much interests me. Re-sign Odorizzi and then find the best FA SP option for the back end of the rotation.

You still have room for the talented young arms on the way up.

I’d be cool with an Odo reunion.

I’d also ask the Dodgers for the original Word file with Maeda’s contract, do a search-and-replace to swap out “Maeda” for “Hill,” and send it to Rich for signing. That’s $3.125M as the base and generous incentives for starts and innings. 

I'm all for Doc's plan. I think Ordorizzi can be had for relatively cheap and would be a good investment. Bringing May back makes sense as well. 

I also like the idea of going out and getting a high end reliever. This won't come cheap though, I don't see Rosario being worth much of anything to be honest. Jake Cave? Negative value IMO. 

It will take one of our better prospects, or someone like Buxton, Sano or Kepler to get this done, if in fact, you are going after someone that is a real top stud. Josh Hader???????

I'm all for Doc's plan. I think Ordorizzi can be had for relatively cheap and would be a good investment. Bringing May back makes sense as well. 

 

I also like the idea of going out and getting a high end reliever. This won't come cheap though, I don't see Rosario being worth much of anything to be honest. Jake Cave? Negative value IMO. 

 

It will take one of our better prospects, or someone like Buxton, Sano or Kepler to get this done, if in fact, you are going after someone that is a real top stud. Josh Hader???????

After reflection and listening to Aaron and John the other day, the more I feel it just might be time to move on from Romo...especially for that much $...and use the money toward May. His velocity and SO rate is fantastic. I also agree to a comment they made that some of are too close to the situation to see May objectively at times. We remember the few games where he served up a HR to the opponent before SO the side. We're he on the market from another team, there could be a clamor to bring him on board.

*Note: On board with their proposed idea of buying out Romo so he can gauge interest and bring him back cheaper. Not saying we should, but it could be a good move. I really think he's a 6th-7th inning option going forward.

**Note: The more I think about it, the more I think Clippard should be a high priority at around $3M, small bump from this season to get it done.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for a move as big as Hader. Assuming he was even available though, finances are a real factor, especially after "covid 2020" and so much gray area financially going in to 2021.

I recall WAY BACK in the day when the Twins traded for Reardon as a proven closer. I just don't see that as practical these days. What I'd like to consider...even with good arms on hand and some good ones potentially on the way...is a move for a Nathan-like or Pressly-like trade. Someone who is not a closer, or expensive, but a set-up guy with a live arm and potential. Especially if May wasn't brought back. And no, I don't have a name, its just a thought process.

This FO has done a very good job identifying arms in the rotation and the pen they like and feel have upside. And instead of making a trade for a SP, I'm just wondering if a semi-proven pen arm with upside isn't the smarter route while brining Oddo back, as I spoke about previously.

I saw a graphic the other day watching one of the other playoff games. Trevor May has the second highest swing and miss rate on his 4-seam fastball among all relievers in baseball.

Looks to me that Hader has 3 years left of arbitration? I just like his arm, that is all. That and I am not as schooled on relievers throughout the league as some would be. If our FO can identify the type you are talking about, I am all for it.

I don't mind Clippard and/or Romo either, but like you, I would rather have these guys be used more in 5-6-7th inning situations. I don't want to have to count on a 40 year old reliever to get the biggest outs of the season when it comes down to it, I want someone in their prime. 

Basically, I want someone in here with a live arm with great velocity and movement. If we have to give up Sano or Buxton for it, I don't care anymore. These 2 have kind of had their chance and pissed the bed.