The Twins Are Taking Advantages Through Pinch Hitting (If They Can Stay Healthy)

Injuries can kill a season, and Twins fans know this all too well. Watching this week as players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Gilberto Celestino, and Sonny Gray all take IL stints for various issues have all given fans a bit more anxiety as they hope the team can hold their own against some of baseball's most brutal rotations in Toronto and New York (the less said about players who will not be crossing the border, the better).

These injuries are also forcing the Twins to essentially miss out on their top advantage this year so far: pinch hitting. Watching this year, it is hard to not notice the amount of shuffling in the lineup during a game. Despite a strong core, it has become almost expected to see players like Kyle Garlick, Nick Gordon, and Celestino appearing in the latter half of a game. Until Miguel Sanó's injury found him a more permanent home at first, the plan with Luis Arráez was to go for his devastating bat against left-handed pitchers only. The Twins have leaned into platoons.

So far in 2022, the Twins are fifth in baseball in pinch-hitting plate appearances, trailing the Giants, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs, and only by a few plate appearances. Of those teams that are leaning into the strategy, Minnesota leads in batting average and on-base percentage. This is not a new development for the Twins, who have been near the top of the American League in pinch-hitting for some time (the absence of a DH made NL pinch-hitting dwarf attempts in the AL until this year’s CBA). But the Twins are on track for more pinch-hitting this season than their previous years. More so, their depth is paying off. 

Let’s cover the usual caveat: pinch hitting might fall under the umbrella of Rocco Baldelli, but he rarely makes these decisions in isolation. There is a whole management team creating game plans for the manager to help develop these strategies. If you find yourself not a fan of these moves, it is highly unlikely you would see a different game plan under Jayce Tingler or another manager. And pinch hitting has its analytical track record; the Giants took 639 PAs by pinch hitters last season and made off with a record 25 home runs (plus the nickname "Late Night LaMonte" for one particularly successful pinch hitter in former Twins prospect LaMonte Wade Jr.).

Using Baseball Savant, I looked at every time a batter came up to the plate who had not started the game by team and season. This system has its defects—it does not necessarily see a difference between Garlick coming in for a good southpaw matchup as opposed to his replacement of Max Kepler after his leg injury in Saturday’s game against Kansas City—but I decided to assume most teams have the same number of PAs that are the results of game injuries. More so, teams need to account for those moments; good teams are built on depth beyond the starters.

As of Wednesday morning, the Twins have had 76 pinch-hitting plate appearances so far this season. Since the Baldelli Era began, they have pinch hit 189 and 226 times in the 2019 and 2021 seasons, respectively, and 68 times in the shortened sixty-game season. Given the Twins just rounded the quarter mark of the season, this means they could go just shy of 300 pinch-hitting attempts if they continue on course, a significant jump for the squad.

More so, they’ve had more success in these PAs. 27 of the 76 plate appearances have resulted in a hit or a walk. They are batting .281/.382/.406 in these plate appearances, which puts them third in the league On Base Percentage behind only the Royals and the Red Sox (both whom are only around 50 PAs). Over half of these PAs have come on the traditional left-handed batters facing right-handed pitchers and resulted in a .355 batting average, the highest in the league for those teams with over 50 pinch hits this season.

The biggest problem has been the power. Of the 27 PAs resulting in some sort of movement on the bases, all have been for singles and walks with the exception of a Kepler home run and a Trevor Larnach double, both during blowouts against the Rays. Even Gio Urshela's game-winning base hit in the amazing Kansas City comeback was a single scoring a single run with bases loaded when more would have put less pressure for the bottom of the ninth.

I’m not about to criticize singles and walks—if the #9 batter can reach base, then that means Luis Arráez, (a hopefully better hitting) Buxton, or Correa have an opportunity to unleash. And a good two-thirds of these PAs are coming with at least a man on first if not in scoring position, where the Twins are batting .310 (the league average is .240 in these situations).

In part, the Twins’ ability to pinch-hit demonstrates the success of this team with its surprising combination of great rookies with solid veterans. Falvey and Levine learned the hard way last year by trying to replace Buxton in Center Field only to find whiff after whiff within their minor league rosters,. Obviously, many of these pinch hitters are the same as last year, but now in dependable utility roles rather than being thrown into the lions' den to start these games. More so, if prospects like Lewis and Jose Miranda deliver along with possibilities like Spencer Steer, this could be a team with options all over the field. This is the construction every team should want: a mix of rookies all finding their edge as veterans lead the way.

They just need to remain healthy for it to work.