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  • The Real Downside Of Buxton's Injury

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    While the lone player selected ahead of him in the 2012 draft, Carlos Correa, continues to build his case as already being the best shortstop in baseball at age 21, Byron Buxton is wrapping up yet another lengthy stay on the disabled list, his fourth in two years. The 21-year-old outfielder is expected to report to Rochester for a rehab stint today.

    This latest setback for Buxton has been a huge downer, but not necessarily for the reasons you'd expect.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

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    Of course it would have been nice to have Buxton around over these past several weeks, purely from a spectator standpoint. He's exciting to watch, and he's also a critical component of this emerging young core. When you watch Buck fly around the bases and outfield, you truly feel like you're watching the future, and with the Twins rapidly spiraling out of contention, that's really all we have to cling onto.

    But his absence has been offset by the emergence of Aaron Hicks, who has taken advantage of his renewed opportunity in a big way. Considering the extent to which Buxton was struggling at the plate before getting hurt, it seems safe to say that the Twins benefited in the short term by replacing him in center.

    The big negative in this whole scenario is more of a long-term consideration -- unfortunate since that's where this organization's gaze is set. Buxton has only played in 11 big-league games this season, but he has been burning through MLB service time during the entirety of his stay on the disabled list, and will continue to do so at least until his rehab assignment officially comes to a close.

    My assumption is that the Twins will keep the speedy outfielder in Triple-A once he is activated, but until he is officially optioned to the minors he'll keep adding onto that clock. When it's all said and done he'll likely have logged almost two months of MLB service time (at least), while providing almost no benefit to the team.

    That isn't anyone's fault, of course. The Twins were right to call him up when they did and couldn't have possibly anticipated him getting hurt less than two weeks later. It is just another in a long line of gut-punch bad breaks for the top prospect, but unlike the multiple injuries that plagued Buxton last year in the minors, this one affects the amount of time that the club will control his services when he's in his true prime, and also could escalate his price more quickly.

    Hopefully that will all become moot, with Buxton developing into a star player and Minnesota locking him up on a long-term deal, negating this hiccup. That all starts with a successful return to the field and a strong finish to the season, setting him up to take over center field at the start of 2016, for good.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 23,732

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    • Posted

    Great article... and it is still very exciting to think about the role that Buxton can (And hopefully will) play in the future of this organization.

     

    Regarding the service time - He wasn't called up until after the Super-2 deadline (though that's a moving target, so hard to know), so the service time likely won't factor into him leaving any earlier. But it is still frustrating that all those days of him not playing count.

     

    I've tweeted this a few times and would love to get others' opinions on this... I think that the Twins use all 20 days that Buxton can rehab in Rochester, but I think they call him up right at that time. If it was me, unless Buxton is just completely struggling, I would really hate to use an option year on him. Of course, we hope that he doesn't need another 3 years of options, hoping that maybe some time next year will be necessary but then he'll take off, but you never know, so I woudln't want to waste the Option, knowing he'd be back up a week later with September call ups.

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    • Posted

    I guess my feeings on the service time and the option issues are about the same. I feel like neither SHOULD be an issue.

     

    If Buxton becomes the elite player we hope for, the Twins will likely lock him up long before either issue becomes problem (so long as Buxton doesn't decide to sign Scott Boras to rep him).

     

    If service time and options remaining do become a concern, something will have really gone wrong (such as 3 more years of significant DL time).

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    nater79a

    nater79a 1,029

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    • Posted

    The options don't really matter. If we're still concerned about Buck burning through his options come 2018 something has gone terribly wrong with the Twins' plan for the future.

     

    It would seem a little odd though for Buxton to spend the full rehab perid in Rochester only to be optioned for about four days prior to expaned rosters in September.

     

     

    I would either option him in about a week to stop the service time clock or bring him up early if he's hitting well.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I'm with SD Buhr......if you are worried about options on Buxton, this team is in BIG trouble. If they are so worried about 2020 and beyond that they don't put on him on the roster day 1 next year, well, why would anyone buy a ticket from these guys. Try to win, please.

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

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    • Posted

    I'm more concerned about options than service time.  Those are what force you on to a roster before you are ready. Case in point, Oswaldo Arcia.  I don't anyone thought we'd be in a situation next year where he was out of options and not ready just yet, based on his minor league track record... but here we are.  I'm wondering if it makes sense to just keep Buxton up at the ML level for the remainder of the season so as not to waste that option (as I suspect he's going to be optioned next year). 

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    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 23,732

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    • Posted

     

    The more I think about it, the more I hate this take. The REAL downside is he's not on the field producing, and now there is a tiny chance they'll start him in AAA next year. That's the real downside, imo.

     

     

    I could argue that there is a 'good' chance that they'll start him in AAA next year

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    HitInAPinch

    HitInAPinch 4,518

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    • Posted

    I've never been as high on Buxton as everyone else seems to be.  I view him, development-wise, as following a path similar to Hicks.  I'm not saying it will take Buxton 3 tries to stick in the MLB, but wouldn't be surprised if it did.  At this point, health and staying healthy is more important that getting a few late season AB's with the Twins.

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    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 23,732

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    • Posted

     

    If Buxton becomes the elite player we hope for, the Twins will likely lock him up long before either issue becomes problem (so long as Buxton doesn't decide to sign Scott Boras to rep him).

     

    Correct... I can't think of any/many top-level players who the Twins didn't extend beyond free agency in the last dozen years.T

     

    They locked up Radke, Santana, Hunter, Cuddyer, Morneau, Mauer, Span and more. 

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

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    • Posted

     

    I could argue that there is a 'good' chance that they'll start him in AAA next year

     

    Yipeee. Very important not to put your best players on the field. Always play for the future, that's what I say.

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    Cap'n Piranha

    Cap'n Piranha 5,641

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    • Posted

     

    Yipeee. Very important not to put your best players on the field. Always play for the future, that's what I say.

     

    If Buxton starts in AAA next year, I would guess it's because they did decide to put their best players on the field, and Buxton wasn't yet one of them.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

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    • Posted

     

    If Buxton starts in AAA next year, I would guess it's because they did decide to put their best players on the field, and Buxton wasn't yet one of them.

     

    Really, you think service time will have zero influence on that, despite what we see all over MLB?

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

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    • Posted

    I agree that the options shouldn't matter.  However if someone would have suggested the same thing for Oswaldo Arcia three years ago, I would have said the same thing.  Different caliber prospects obviously, but to think that what has happened with Arcia, or Hicks, couldn't happen to Buxton would be dangerous.

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

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    • Posted

     

    Correct... I can't think of any/many top-level players who the Twins didn't extend beyond free agency in the last dozen years.T

     

    They locked up Radke, Santana, Hunter, Cuddyer, Morneau, Mauer, Span and more. 

     

    Dozier didn't.  Others would consider Plouffe a top player right now too.  Those guys show a recent history of not extending past free agency.

     

    But full discosure, I was in full favor of not extending Dozier past his normal free agency clock, and I'd rather deal Plouffe than extend him.

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    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 5,943

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    • Posted (edited)

     

    Yipeee. Very important not to put your best players on the field. Always play for the future, that's what I say.

    Mike, do you really think Buxton is better than Hicks right now?  Buxton is not ready for ML pitching right now.   So, the first priority should be his development which is probably best served at AAA for now.  It could be argued he had not really mastered AA.   Smalley was on 1500 talking the need for young players to master each level before moving up.  I am inclined to listen to the guys that have been there and done that.

     

     In addition, this is a business.  So, to say service clock should not matter is not very realistic.  A big part of the constant complaining here is that many fans just refuse to acknowledge and/or accept this is a business.

    Edited by Major Leauge Ready
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    twinsnorth49

    twinsnorth49 14,652

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    • Posted

    Why can't they keep the option and start him with big club next year? Just because they might decide to keep the option doesn't necessarily mean they're worried they'll need it. With the timing of his rehab and September call ups, they'd be pretty stupid to waste it for no reason.

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    d-mac

    d-mac 1,252

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    • Posted

     

    Really, you think service time will have zero influence on that, despite what we see all over MLB?

     

    Were you watching Buxton's first attempt at the majors? He was as overmatched Aaron Hicks his first go-around. To be perfectly honest, he needs more time in the high minors to learn some plate discipline and really should be in AAA the rest of the year.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

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    • Posted

     

    Mike, do you really think Buxton is better than Hicks right now?  Buxton is not ready for ML pitching right now.   So, the first priority should be his development which is probably best served at AAA for now.  It could be argued he had not really mastered AA.   Smalley was on 1500 talking the need for young players to master each level before moving up.  I am inclined to listen to the guys that have been there and done that.

     

     In addition, this is a business.  So, to say service clock should not matter is not very realistic.  A big part of the constant complaining here is that many fans just refuse to acknowledge and/or accept this is a business.

     

    I think he's an elite prospect that doesn't need to be babied. EVERY other elite prospect from this year's lists is up, and playing.

     

    Is every other team wrong, or is Buxton just not that good?

     

    I accept that they can keep him down for service reasons, I don't have to like it as a fan.

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

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    • Posted

     

     Smalley was on 1500 talking the need for young players to master each level before moving up.  I am inclined to listen to the guys that have been there and done that.

     

     

    Roy Smalley played less than 2 years of minor league ball and he played in an era where guys routinely played little or even skipped the minors altogether. 

     

    I'm OK with Buxton playing AAA if that means Arcia gets one final audition instead of the front office making a fairly uneducated guess about his future this offseason, but Buxton could probably just as easily take his lumps at the MLB level for a rebuilding team than face a bunch of journeymen junkballers in AAA.

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    Cap'n Piranha

    Cap'n Piranha 5,641

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    • Posted

     

    Really, you think service time will have zero influence on that, despite what we see all over MLB?

     

     

    His service clock has already started.  In order to gain an additional year of control, wouldn't he have to stay in AAA until August?  So no, if he starts in AAA, I think it will be because the Twins think Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter/Arcia/Kepler/someone else are better at that time.

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    SwainZag

    SwainZag 5,031

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    • Posted

     

    I think he's an elite prospect that doesn't need to be babied. EVERY other elite prospect from this year's lists is up, and playing.

     

    Is every other team wrong, or is Buxton just not that good?

     

    I accept that they can keep him down for service reasons, I don't have to like it as a fan.

     

    Or you could just not group together "elite prospects" and assume they mature all at the same pace.  How many elite prospects missed all of 2014?  How many other elite prospects didn't play AAA ball?  How many other elite prospects have played less than a half season above A ball and are playing right now?  

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

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    • Posted

    Corriea....best SS in al of baseball meets your criteria mostly (well, he played AAA this year, and didn't skip it like Buxton did). Sano, I believe, meets most of your criteria.

     

    Go look at the lists if you want to know the answers to your questions, more than you think.

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    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 5,941

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    • Posted

    They called him up in June after they believed the super 2 cut off had passed. They can't get an extra year of service time unless they had started him in AAA next season. I am not sure how the additional service time is a real negative. It doesn't help him towards super 2 status and waiting until next May for him to make his debut isn't reasonable.

     

    I guess if he struggles for multiple years like Hicks and Arcia and needs the options then it might matter. They don't need to use an option this year though. If he does struggle, the real negative will be his performance and not the service time.

     

    Am I correct in stating that if he starts on the roster opening day 2016 the service time on the DL will not have enabled him to become a free agent a year earlier or allowed him arbitration a year earlier?

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    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

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    • Posted

     

    I like the suggestion of letting Buxton rehab in Rochester as long as possible. For all his speed, he's not ready to help the offense yet.

     

    The only question you need to ask is this. Is Buxton a better option than Shane Robinson? Yes? Great, bring him up.

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    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 23,732

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    • Posted

     

    Really, you think service time will have zero influence on that, despite what we see all over MLB?

     

    He was already called up over a year before he needed to be added to the 40 man roster and it was past the Super-2 date, so no, I think it would be because they believe he needs to work on something. 

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    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 23,732

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    • Posted

     

    Roy Smalley played less than 2 years of minor league ball and he played in an era where guys routinely played little or even skipped the minors altogether. 

     

    After being the #1 overall pick out of the best college baseball program of the era. 

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