The Difficult Dozier Decision

I'm not sure I'd want them to go more than 3/50 for him. The drop off between him and Gordon will probably be huge, but it might be necessary. The dollar amount being more would be ok with me, but the years are something I hope they don't get too crazy on.

If that's not good enough, then QO him and see what happens.

It's easy to just "plug in" Gordon

This. 

1) Dozier leaving is a big loss offensively. It isn't as easy as just plug in Gordon and the bats keep rolling.

2) Are we sure most if not all of this young core will be here after 4 years? If they're going to be "too expensive," then I'd rather pay Dozier and maximize the current window. 

3) I understand letting him walk saves $$ but Mike made a good point above. What are they going to do with that money? 

Qualifying offer only, unless Polanco and Gordon *both* fail this year.

http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180306&content_id=267981490&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

Fascinating reversal...

I think it's possible to be disappointed about the lack of extension talks and be excited about free agency. I think different questions were asked in the two interviews. If he sees the writing on the wall, then his best bet is to have a positive outlook on the next chapter of his career.

That article is sad. I kinda wish the Twins would at least offer a 3-4 year deal to the guy. I'm of the thought that Gordon is at best a utility guy. He'd be here by now if he were any good. Slap hitter, set for the bottom of the order vs. a guy you can slot in anywhere in the top 4 spots of your lineup. 

I get the fact that there are some options in our organization, but Dozier is still in his prime. Unless he is truly looking for the 4-6 year deal, I think the Twins should at least be exploring options with him. 

http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180306&content_id=267981490&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

Fascinating reversal...

Between now and next off-season (or the trade deadline) there will be a thousand posts/articles on Dozier's situation, along with 10 thousand interview questions about it.  Both the writers and Brian will contradict themselves and each other countlessly.

He's just a guy being advised by his agent and trying not to piss everyone off in the interim...like 99% of the others that have gone through this.

The interesting thing to me...if you're thinking about signing Dozier, then you should be thinking about trading Gordon, right?  Why would you make a bench player out of a 5th over-all draft pick that is still a top 100 prospect?  You'd want to get something of more value than a utility infielder while you still had the change.  So, IMO, the tricky part for the Twins will be getting decent value out of Gordon if they find themselves spending the money to keep Dozier.  (This assumes that the Twins have already decided that Gordon is not an every-day MLB SS.)

Someone, some prospect, or Dozier, should start working on playing 3B.

I think this is a good point.  I seem to recall that when Dozier was moved off of SS, the primary issue was range, not arm.  Someone can confirm or deny.  If that's the case, and the Twins find themselves with an opportunity to sign Dozier, but happen to love Gordon, Dozier's bat plays at 3rd (at least it has for the last few years).

I do think this is a tough decision. But, I think he will be good for three more years, so if they can agree on that length, I do it. Even with the MI depth.

Unless they are going to spend that in big time pitching, I don't know where else the money will even go.

I think Mike is on point here and I think I have a pathway that the Twins can use to get this done.  The Twins have a big advantage over the competition, they can influence the amount he can get paid this year.  I would go to Brian with the following points:

1. Daniel Murphy was right after you in WAR for 2B last season and his free agent contract in 2016 was 3 years/$37.5 million.

2. $5.5 million of that was deferred.

3. We have room in our 2018 budget due to BAMTech to get you more money immediately.

My formal offer would be the following:

- 3 years/$45 million

- No deferred money

- $6 million raise in 2018 to bring his salary up to $15 million

- $5 million signing bonus

This would allow us to use our financial flexibility over the next few years but comes off the books as guys like Buxton, Sano, and Rosario hit free agency.  

Here is the list of next years 2B FA's:

Jose Altuve (29) — $6.5MM club option
Asdrubal Cabrera (33)
Daniel Descalso (32)
Brian Dozier (32)
Logan Forsythe (32)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Josh Harrison (31) — $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ian Kinsler (37)
DJ LeMahieu (30)
Jed Lowrie (35)
Daniel Murphy (34)
Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $4MM player option with a $2MM buyout
Jose Reyes (36)
Sean Rodriguez (34)

There are some good options there. Kinsler, Murphy and Forsythe could be in the same tier as Dozier next season. In addition there are couple players that might be available on a one year deal only a step down from Dozier.

I like JHarldson's idea above. It would essentially be a 4 year $60 million deal. I would rather the Twins go for a big time pitcher but I think this offseason showed that isn't going to happen so we should upgrade where we can and this seems reasonable.

I don’t think Dozier has the arm to play third. He struggles as it is.

I'm not sure wants to make the transition.  He was a shortstop and has carved his niche at 2B

Difficult?   According to whom?  It makes no sense for this team to offer him anything more than a qualifying offer.  He might have a difficult decision to make...

Just remember what happened when the Twins signed Mauer to an extension before he was eligible to become a free agent.

If he has a good year, offer him the QO first & then talk about a possible 3-4 year contract. Or fall back on your in-house options that may make sense in the long term.

Just remember what happened when the Twins signed Mauer to an extension before he was eligible to become a free agent.

 

If he has a good year, offer him the QO first & then talk about a possible 3-4 year contract. Or fall back on your in-house options that may make sense in the long term.

You mean how Mauer went on to 3 All Star games? Or finishing top 10 in MVP voting the season after he signed the contract? Or the Gold Gloves? Or his 120 OPS+? Sure we all wish Mauer never had his concussion or been forced out from behind the plate but let's not suggest that he or his contract has been any kind of hindrance to the Minnesota Twins.

If Brian Dozier was that successful we would all be jumping for joy over the next several years.

I think he has the feet for third... and if he has the feet for third... he'll have the arm for third. 

Twins aren't playing soccer!  

Anyone else notice Neil Walker can't find a team? Just saying demand is not that great for 2nd base. I know Walker is not equal to Dozier but just proves they could find a cheap alternative some where next year if Dozier demands the world in a contract.

Yeah, Neil Walker is still a very good player.  A healthy Walker is a top 10 MLB 2B.  He was #8 in wRC+ last year in an off year for him.

I sure hope management doesn't think that Dozier is going to be the player he was the last two years for the next three or four.  This is the trouble with baseball contracts.  Too often you overpay for what the guy did instead of for what he is capable of doing.  If you give Dozier too many years it's a mistake.  I even think three years is too much,  Take a look at a player like Chase Utley.  He was better than Dozier was for a longer period of time and by the time he hit his early 30s his production declined pretty sharply:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml

I guess it is natural to get attached to players, but do what is right for the betterment of this team going forward.

Dozier has been an everyday player for the last four seasons, playing over 150 games each year.  How many guys do that for 7 or 8 years straight?  Are we supposed to bank on him being one of those guys?