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  • The Case Against the Twins Trading Luis Arraez

    Theodore Tollefson

    By Theodore Tollefson

    Whenever the time comes for the MLB lockout to end, a flood of transactions will occur from almost every team across MLB. The Twins may not be the most active team with little time remaining on the Hot Stove market, but they will undoubtedly make a few moves when that time comes.

     

    Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports

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    One of the significant speculations among Twins fans and beat writers is that the Twins will likely consider trading utility man Luis Arraez to a team to receive quality starting pitching in return. The main reason for this common speculation is because Arraez does not have a position he can currently play every day with Jorge Polanco at second base and Josh Donaldson at third. Not to mention the likelihood of Jose Miranda being called up to receive more playing time at third if the Twins decide to have Donaldson move into the DH role more often. 

    That leaves left field the last place where Arraez plays comfortably, where he could be penned into the lineup each day. However, two players are everyday outfielders that the Twins hope to give more playing time to in Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff and see improvements from their 2021 season in 2022 in left field. 

    Could the Twins possibly consider playing Arraez at shortstop if they don't end up trading him to start the 2022 season? No. Only if they have everyone else who can play shortstop, injured, or unavailable on a given day. Arraez has only started at shortstop three times and totaled eight games at the position at the Major League level. All of these games took place in 2019 during his rookie season. 

    The Twins may not be willing to take that gamble of starting Arraez at short every day if they believe they can sign one of the everyday shortstops remaining on the market or see a massive breakthrough from Royce Lewis and Austin Martin in the minors this season.

    That leaves the only possible option of trading Arraez to give him the playing time he deserves with another team. Yet the Twins should not consider Arraez as a trade option to start pitching. He has become one of the best contact hitters in the game over the first three seasons of his career and a valuable asset to the clubhouse culture that started in 2019. But the number one reason why the Twins should not trade Arraez is to keep him around to fill infield voids that could come from player injuries.

    Every fan or writer knows injuries will happen each season, but there is always the hope going into spring training that their team will be 100 percent healthy for as long as possible. No one likes to predict player injuries at any point in any sports season, but injuries in MLB are more common than ever each season than they ever have been in the history of the sport. 

    Based on the injury history of Donaldson, most Twins fans would expect to see him on the IL at some point during the 2022 season if that does happen. Even though this writer does not hope it will, that will free up more playing time for Arraez at third or DH. Still, Arraez himself has a skeptical injury history, too, with his knees going into his age 25 season. That problem will follow him wherever he is for the longevity of his career, whether it's with the Twins or another team. 

    Without Arraez, the Twins may not have another player who can consistently hit over .300 throughout the season. However, contact hitting is undervalued now in modern MLB, where three true outcome hitting is king. There will be a time again when teams need a player or two they can consistently count on for hitting over .300 and having a high on-base percentage to go along with it without having to hit home runs. 

    Arraez is that guy for the Twins right now, and it's hard to say if they will have another .300 hitter in their lineup for 2022 if they end up trading him. 

    The Twins may not have a position they can play Arraez at consistently right now, but that could change throughout the 2022 season. And even if the likes of Martin and Miranda are raking in the minors to start 2022, who's to say their performance will pan out equally in the majors right away? 

    There is still another reality for the Twins in 2022, where Polanco and Donaldson are relatively healthy all season. If they keep Arraez, his playing time will become secondary to their own. And maybe Miranda if he repeats his 2021 success with the Saints in 2022 in the Bigs. 

    If the Twins do not trade Arraez and the above reality plays out, they will likely rotate Arraez at 2B and 3B a couple of times a week to give either Donaldson or Polanco a day off at their position or time at DH. Arraez will likely be the DH for the Twins on Opening Day if they keep him. With the team's current appearance, that is likely the best spot to pen him in until Miranda arrives. 

    Potential injuries, prospects not panning out in MLB right away, and the need for a .300 hitter in the lineup are undoubtedly good reasons for the Twins to hold off on trading Arraez for the 2022 season, possibly. Arraez could undoubtedly bring back a good starter if the right trade partner is found, but his bat and clubhouse presence might be worth holding onto to see if the Twins can pull together a winning 2022 season. 

     

    Minnesota born and raised, Theodore is a professional journalist with the Rochester Post Bulletin who uses his free time to write about the Twins for TD to give an old school perspective from a younger generation.
    Follow Theodore Tollefson on Twitter: TheodoreTollef1

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    bean5302

    bean5302 3,310

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    There's a lot of names, but that list is not impressive to me.

    Garver- Can't stay healthy and is on the wrong side of 30 already playing the most demanding position physically. Stud when he's healthy, though.
    Jeffers- Are we sure he can hit? Nobody can claim he's proved it yet.
    Rortvedt- Are we sure he can hit above .180 even?
    Kirilloff- Are we sure he'll suddenly get over his almost yearly wrist injuries? Very likely stud if he can stay healthy.
    Sano- Is most likely gone after this year.
    Rooker- We know he can't field, are we sure he can hit? Certainly hasn't proved he can hit.
    Larnach- Won't kill you in the field like Rooker, but isn't very good. We sure he's the first month Larnach and not the last 3 months Larnach?
    Polanco- Stud.
    Arraez- Hits/OB machine we know isn't above average at 3 positions, but isn't embarassing.
    Gordon- Brings much needed speed and athleticism. Can he hit? Certainly not an everyday guy.
    Miranda- We sure his 1 year sample is the real deal or the rest of his career when he wasn't even good enough to get picked in the rule 5? I have faith, but there's been better prospects who have failed.
    Donaldson- Not getting any younger. Will spend more and more time at DH for next 2 years if he doesn't get traded before then.
    Palacios- Why do we think he's a major leaguer? If that's what anyone thinks he'll be taken in the rule 5 and won't be here anyways.
    Celestino- Looks like a very good option as future 4th OFer.
    Cave- Really? Cave's part of the reason we can afford to move Arraez? He's not even on the 40-man and no major league team claimed him.
    Buxton- Can't stay healthy, but is a stud when he is healthy.
    Kepler- Big time defender, some time hitter.

    I don't see the depth here. Arraez is a proven ML hitter. He's 1 of 6 or 7 on your list. That's not even a full starting lineup! I love prospects and have high hopes for many of the young guys we have, but we need to quit acting like Jeffers, Rortvedt, Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, Miranda, and Celestino are any sort of sure things. Kirilloff looks every part the future star, but wrist injuries are killers for hitters. The rest of them have had almost no major league success at all let alone sustained success. So yes, we have a lot of names. But, no, we don't have great depth.

    It doesn't matter if they're impressive to you or not. This is the depth the Twins have, and depth isn't supposed to be impressive. Depth is supposed to be adequate, which is why it's "depth." If teams are playing with impressive depth and outright holes at other positions, they're doing it wrong.

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    bean5302

    bean5302 3,310

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

    Now let's remove the guys who have NOT proven they are MLB hitters yet:

    • C Depth - Garver, Jeffers,
    • 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Sano, Donaldson, Garver
    • 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez
    • 3B Depth - Donaldson, Arraez
    • SS Depth - ?, Arraez
    • LF Depth - 
    • CF Depth - Buxton
    • RF Depth - Kepler
    • DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson

    So, if Larnach hits, you need Arraez less. But proven depth? No.

    What the does Larnach have to do with 2B depth? I addressed depth for the whole position player roster.

    If ice cream sandwiches are better with Neopolitan ice cream than chocolate chip vanilla ice cream, then clearly Arraez isn't needed. However, if you like chocolate ice cream in your ice cream sandwich, then clearly, you can't count on the Twins' depth at 2B.

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    chpettit19

    chpettit19 8,662

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    It doesn't matter if they're impressive to you or not. This is the depth the Twins have, and depth isn't supposed to be impressive. Depth is supposed to be adequate, which is why it's "depth." If teams are playing with impressive depth and outright holes at other positions, they're doing it wrong.

    Depth is absolutely supposed to be impressive when the discussion is whether or not to trade a proven major league player. Which is the discussion here. If the depth isn't impressive and can't reasonably be expected to replace that player you have no depth in regards to the discussion at hand. The Twins don't have Arraez replacing depth. That's the point.

    The list you provided shows how little depth the Twins have at any position and this idea that they're so deep offensively that they should be trading offense for pitching isn't based in reality. That's the discussion. They have no proven depth at any position. Best argument is Jeffers and Garver, but Jeffers is far from proven and Garver is far from a sure thing to stay healthy. Plus you need 2 catchers.

    Now there's always risks to be taken and that changes the discussion a little, but not drastically in this case. Martin looks like Arraez at the plate with much more athleticism. I have very high hopes for him, but he's not even close to proven. And I'd prefer him in LF over the IF (I'm not a "you need to hit with power to play here" person so I'm sure many will disagree with that stance). At some point some chances need to be taken on young guys replacing established major leaguers. It's usually a financial situation that leads to that. The Twins aren't in that spot with Arraez. The question here is really about putting your faith in the young pitchers to perform or the young hitters. Either you need a young hitter to replace Arraez or you need a young pitcher to fill a rotation spot. With the Twins having drastically more near MLB ready arms than bats I'd prefer they see what they have in the arms.

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    se7799

    se7799 464

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 1/17/2022 at 4:29 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

    I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere :)  Nice job bean)!!

    Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy."  

    We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense.  Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday.  And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF.

    There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options.  Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power.  Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense.  He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine,  but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well).  I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez.  It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense.  If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.

    When has he ever been even close to our 9th. 8th, or even 7th best offensive player?  What stats or metrics are you using to grade him this low?  I'm guessing if his career numbers put him as our 8th best batter we would have one heck of a lineup.

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