The August Trade Deadline

Twins should let Byung Ho Park go. If someone claims him outright which is kind of doubtful. Park is a sunk cost, another International Free Agent signing from the Pacific rim that the Twins scouts failed on.

 

There doesn't really seem to be a fit for Park on the Twins roster. I could see him making it in the major leagues but with Joe Mauer entrenched at first base Parks best position first base is out of reach. He strikes me as the kind of player that needs to play first base and be in the field for his bat to be engaged and doing well. Just my opinion.

I don't think he is a failed signing.  However, as you mentioned, his 2 positions are DH and 1st Base.  And I think currently and in the future the Twins have better options than him in Sano, Mauer and even Vargas.  If another team would like to take a chance on him I would be ok with that simply because we have better players ahead of him, not because he failed.

Players without significant contracts will get blocked. The return on others will not shift the franchise.

If a team claims Plouffe or Suzuki with the intention of blocking (they don't offer a player in return), should the Twins let them go?

What would be the point of keeping Plouffe in that case? His arbitration award will make him even more difficult to trade this winter. Taking him to arbitration almost certainly means he is on the 25 next year. If they don't plan on taking him to arbitration, why keep him in September? Play Sano, Polanco and Vargas more often.

They can also let Suzuki go and give the time to Centeno and Murphy. Suzuki may be able to get a multiyear contract this winter. I hope it is not from the Twins.

Agree on the addition by subtraction, especially shedding Plouffe. There's bound to be less enthusiasm for moving Suzuki because he's not blocking anyone near the perceived potential of Sano or Polanco, but the sooner he's gone the sooner they can finally get serious about finding a real replacement for Mauer.

Not sure if other teams will block the Twins as aggressively with an interim manager in the captain's chair. Antony is (or should be) looking to distinguish himself rather than avoid mistakes.  He may be looking to add another prospect or two OR save ownership a million or two by not pulling back a claimed veteran, in order to build his resume.

At the very least, other teams can't count on Antony to act exactly as Ryan would have with waiver claims, which should be a plus.

I don't think so. I mean, he would likely get claimed by one of the first teams so there would be limited return at this time. They could get more for him in the offseason. 

 

I'd spend the rest of the year with Polanco playing mostly at SS and hope he can be adequate. I would not look to trade Dozier. We 'hope' Polanco might be as good as Dozier is.

I would be very happy with Polanco being almost as good as Dozier if trading Dozier could net us a front of the rotation starter. Obviously, there is some risk to this type of move because that front of the rotation arm is likely a high A or AA SP.  However, the Twins are not likely to be serious contenders until they get some legit $1 and #2 types.  I am not sure there is a legit ceiling of a #1 starter among Gonsalves, Jay or Stewart.  To be fair KC, Boston, and Baltimore have proven in the past few years that you can contend with solid but unspectacular SP.  I just think we need more legit front of the rotation SP prospects.  Maybe they can get a college arm next June but I think they will end up picking a little too low to get a front of the rotation prospect out of college if they are picking 8 or 9.

I also don't know how valuable Dozier is as a leader.  I am not in that clubhouse and this should not be dismissed.

It's all pretty unlikely with Dozier.  Plouffe on the other hand is possible.  Try him first on revocable waiver and see if someone will give us something/anything.  If he does not get traded, pass him through again and hope someone takes him off our hands. I would take one more shot with E. Santana too.  I just don't see us contending next year so trade him if the return is right.

I'd never put it at 0%, but I can't see any team giving Suzuki a multi year deal.

besides us.  I can see us doing it.

I have always had a fan crush on Castro.....

Fidel?

If the July 31 trade chatter was accurate, it seems like the rest of the league may not see Suzuki as a viable defensive catcher anymore.

I am not aware of anything substantive related to interest in Suzuki. I don't think the Twins should be interested in Suzuki over two years. I do think that he will go to free agency looking for that deal. His agent should have a better read on interest beyond the chatter though.

If Sazuki and Plouffe clear waivers they should be traded for anything you can get. 

If Sazuki and Plouffe clear waivers they should be traded for anything you can get. 

have either been put on waivers?

He won't agree to go.

 

And, at this point, he's playing very well, why would they want him gone?

Does his no-trade clause also include irrrevocable waivers? I did not know that.

I am not here to bash Mauer--you can't not like Joe--but does anyone really believe his latest hot streak means he is back to being the MVP Mauer or anything close to earning his $23 million? He had the hot streak in Seattle where he showed HR power and then went in the tank. I know the odds of relieving us of his contract are slim and none, but if there's a way to keep Vargas, Park, Sano, Palka, etc. for future years you try any avenue and unfortunately 1B seems to be the only position for these guys who should be part of our future.

Trading Ervin makes no sense if the Twins think they will contend next year (they should). Trading Suzuki is problematic; after watching Centeno play hacky-sack with pitches in the dirt the last few days, and with the dearth of catching in the minors, unless Mitch Garver can make the jump they really need Suzuki, not only this year, but perhaps next year, as well.  Moving Plouffe has to happen, but in August will likely depend upon a third baseman on a contending team going down; he's too inconsistent to be valuable just as an extra bat. Kintzler, Milone, Boshers, Park and Grossman should all be available should any other team come calling. All are replaceable with people on the roster or in the system, imho.

Suzuki is a free agent after this year. 

Fidel?

Raul

It's too early to declare that Vargas, Park, or Palka should be part of the team's future, and my guess is that in any event none of the three will ever become exceptional major leaguers. As for Mauer, It appears we're stuck with him at least through next season. After that, I can imagine the FO possibly deciding that cutting him loose and eating the $23M remainder makes sense IF Sano can't cut it at 3B or Vargas emerges as the next Big Papi or something. In other words, he's not going away because he's less productive, and he's obviously still very productive. He's only going to be cut because two or more of the players of the future are demonstrably MORE productive than Mauer. And I don't personally see much evidence right this minute that this is the case. The most predictable scenario is Polanco needing to be in the lineup but only being adequate defensively at 2B or 3B, Dozier being retained, Sano flopping at 3B and therefore needing a home at DH or 1B, and then one of Vargas, Park, or Palka becoming a much more important offensive force than Mauer. And that scenario would probably play out over a period of time, such as the 2017 season. A further decline in production by Mauer would put the nail in the coffin. So, that's a lot of things that might have to come together before the FO would eat $23M and cut bait with Mauer. 

I believe we're looking at 3-4 players being moved they are in order 1. Kintzler replacement will be Chargois. 2. Grossman replacement will be palka. 3. Tommy milone replacement will be Meijer 4. Boshers replacement will be Pat licht. That's how I see it playing out in Rob Antony ideal world we are not trading Suzuki Cuz we have nothing else so we can't

Tommy Milone's replacement will be a regional Walmart-like store?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meijer

Also, I've never heard of this Pat Licht before, maybe he is recent Twins signing out of Germany to make Kepler feel more at-home. 

It's too early to declare that Vargas, Park, or Palka should be part of the team's future, and my guess is that in any event none of the three will ever become exceptional major leaguers. As for Mauer, It appears we're stuck with him at least through next season. After that, I can imagine the FO possibly deciding that cutting him loose and eating the $23M remainder makes sense IF Sano can't cut it at 3B or Vargas emerges as the next Big Papi or something. In other words, he's not going away because he's less productive, and he's obviously still very productive. He's only going to be cut because two or more of the players of the future are demonstrably MORE productive than Mauer. And I don't personally see much evidence right this minute that this is the case. The most predictable scenario is Polanco needing to be in the lineup but only being adequate defensively at 2B or 3B, Dozier being retained, Sano flopping at 3B and therefore needing a home at DH or 1B, and then one of Vargas, Park, or Palka becoming a much more important offensive force than Mauer. And that scenario would probably play out over a period of time, such as the 2017 season. A further decline in production by Mauer would put the nail in the coffin. So, that's a lot of things that might have to come together before the FO would eat $23M and cut bait with Mauer. 

This is likely the only scenario in which we'd get out of Mauer's contract. He isn't going to be traded. Nor claimed on waivers. 

Really, the August waiver trading period is for trading players like Milone or Nolasco, and possibly Plouffe because they'd likely pass through waivers. Players like Suzuki, Kintzler, and E Santana would likely be claimed, meaning any return would be very minimal. WHICH IS WHY YOU TRADE THESE PLAYERS IN JULY! 

I see it differently. Santana is the only guy on that list whose value is high enough where it may be prohibitively difficult to move him in August.

 

Suzuki is likely to be claimed... By a team that wants Suzuki. Every team has several C-ish level prospects, any one of which will get them Suzuki. They claim him, they offer up a middling prospect, hands are shaken, Suzuki wears a new uniform.

 

Kintzler's value is lower than Suzuki.

Any team that claims a player, basically has the selling team as a captive customer. They can offer very little and the seller can either accept it or pull the player off waivers. Lack of competition limits return. It's like Econ 101. 

But we're not talking about moving multiple, organizational-changing assets. We're talking about moving a single prospect that most teams have many of, often in excess.

 

And if the offer is absurd, the Twins can simply say "Eh, Suzuki isn't worth that much anyway. We don't need your crappy prospect. Get lost."

 

And then the contending team that claimed him, the one that actually needed a catcher, is left out in the dry. They still don't have that catcher and they burned a bridge for no reason.

 

This isn't as one-sided as you're making it out to be. When the overall value and return is low, there is very little to be gained by trying to strongarm your opponent. After all, your team is the one who needs a player to improve their postseason chances. The other team is floundering anyway, they don't have much to lose in the short-term.

 

In my experience, most business transactions play out amicably, not like a scene from a Michael Douglas movie.

I think you are reading far too into this. All I'm saying the return Suzuki would have gotten in July, would be greater than he'll get now in August due to the nature of the waiver system. Not to mention that there is less time left in the season to provide value to the acquiring team.