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  • That's The Ticket: Battling For The Wild Card


    John  Bonnes

    On July 20th, the Rangers were five games under .500, and nine games back in the AL West and seven games back of the second Wild Card spot, held by the Minnesota Twins . With the trade deadline approaching and “sell” trade rumors swirling around their pitcher Yovanni Gallardo, it looked like the Rangers season was essentially over early.

    Not so fast.

    Image courtesy of Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Rangers now enter this series with a .500 record, 4.5 games back in the AL West and a half game ahead of the Twins, albeit still back of that final Wild Card spot. Since the 20th, they have gone 12-6 and held onto Gallardo after they didn’t get any trade offers they thought were compelling enough.

    But most importantly, the Rangers also traded for Phillies ace Cole Hamels at the trade deadline. Hamels, unlike many of the starting pitchers that traded hands, isn’t a free agent at the end of the year, and the Rangers made a point of emphasizing that this deal was for future years as much as anything. But Hamels is also providing a huge boost in the area that the Rangers have been weakest; their 4.49 ERA is last in the American League.

    Tuesday

    Yovani Gallardo (8-9, 3.47 ERA, 5.9 K/9) vs.

    Kyle Gibson (8-9 3.78 ERA,6.4 K/9 )

    This is an interesting matchup because the 27-year-old Gibson looks a lot like the 29-year-old Gallado in terms of results and how they have achieved them. Neither is a big strikeout pitcher, though both are respectable. Both rely on ground balls. They also have identical records, similar ERAs and are within four innings of each other for the season. It could very well be that the “swing” game of the series is the first one.

    Wednesday

    Nick Martinez (7-6, 3.91 ERA, 5.3 K/9) vs.

    Mike Pelfrey (5-7, 4.06 ERA, 4.3 K/9)

    Martinez and Pelfrey have a few things in common, too. Neither is much of a strikeout pitcher, nor does either have great control, and yet they’re both having fairly decent seasons that belie those numbers. The two pitchers are also on opposite ends of their careers: Martinez is only 24 years old and in his second year. Pelfrey is 31 and a ten-year veteran.

    Thursday

    Cole Hamels (6-8, 3.86 ERA, 9.5 K/9) vs.

    Ervin Santana (2-3, 5.40 ERA, 5.8 K/9)

    Speaking of double-digit year veterans, this matchup features two of them. Santana has 11 years on his slender arm, and after being suspended for the first half of the year, he has made three stellar starts, three clunkers and one decent outing. If the Twins are to compete in August, they’re going to need their “big midseason addition” (albeit not a trade deadline addition) to be better than a coin flip.

    Hamels matches Santana in the “slender” department but has served as the workhorse in Philly for 10 years before this trade, averaging 207 IP with a 3.21 ERA from 2007 through 2014. Read that last sentence again. He’s also won a World Series there, received Cy Young votes four times, and threw a no-hitter in his last game with that franchise. His introduction to the American League, however, has not gone as smoothly: he’s given up nine runs over 13.2 innings in his two starts.

    The Lineup

    The Rangers are fourth in the American League in runs scored, while the Twins rank ninth, though the difference is only 27 runs over the 111 games the teams have played. But the Rangers are hitting a lot better since the All-Star break, and they’ve added both Josh Hamilton and (very recently) Mike Napoli midseason to provide a few more offensive options. Make no mistake – this isn’t the Toronto Blue Jays. But they can be formidable. It isn’t trivial to navigate a lineup with Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, and Mitch Moreland hitting second through fifth.

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    This may be the definition of a critical series. The Twins are reeling the Rangers are playing well and they have nearly identical records. If the Twins drop 3, they would be 4 games below .500 and the season could become almost impossible to salvage. They would be conceivably be 8 positions and maybe 6 1/2 games out of the playoffs.

     

    John, my question to you is, do you think this could be the stake in the heart that would enable Twins mgmt to finally shake up the team and institute a real youth movement. Buxton, Berrios, Kepler into the starting lineup with maybe a few others?

     

    Hey, I can dream.

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    This may be the definition of a critical series. The Twins are reeling the Rangers are playing well and they have nearly identical records. If the Twins drop 3, they would be 4 games below .500 and the season could become almost impossible to salvage. They would be conceivably be 8 positions and maybe 6 1/2 games out of the playoffs.

    John, my question to you is, do you think this could be the stake in the heart that would enable Twins mgmt to finally shake up the team and institute a real youth movement. Buxton, Berrios, Kepler into the starting lineup with maybe a few others?

    Hey, I can dream.

     

    I think a better chance for Berrios is to have the team be competitive. If they aren't, I think the Twins will be careful with how many innings they put on his arm. If they're in it and need a starter, I can see them calling him up for a bit. 

     

    As for Buxton or Kepler, the only thing that gets them into play is an injury, a severe slump, or Hunter demanding a trade to a contender. I don't see the final one happening even if they do drop out, so no, I don't see it helping them. 

     

    FWIW, you're seeing a youth movement. It's just going to take a little bit of time to sort out who is going to stick and who isn't. (And to find some way to patch holes like catcher.)

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