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While we know the Twins’ are playing winning baseball because of dance parties and Miguel Sano, let’s take a look at how are the Astros doing this.
For Houston, the biggest factor is that they have made it extremely difficult to score runs off their pitching staff. Since the start of the second half, they have averaged just 2.97 runs allowed per game -- tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the lowest. The Twins are fortunate to miss their top two starters in Dallas Kuechel and Collin McHugh this series but will still face lefty Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers. Fiers, as participants of the DomiNoNo contest will remember, threw a no-hitter and tragically won everyone a free medium Domino’s pizza two starts ago.
Aiding in the run reduction has been the liberal use of the defensive shift. The Astros have repositioned their fielders all over the diamond to provide the maximum advantage. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have shifted on more occasions this year but the Astros have had 32 more instances than the Rays where the play was impacted by the shift. So either the Astros are positioning smarter or are luckier than the Rays.
Whereas the pitching staff is mature -- they have second oldest collections of throwers in the American League -- the offense has all the young dudes (boogaloo dudes). None more youthful than 20-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa. While Twins fans are fanning themselves nightly over the displays of power from Sano, Astros fans have seen 100 plate appearances more of Correa who has performed well on both sides of the ball. Not only can he hit, he can cover a ton of ground in the infield. This series could prove to be an interesting showcase for the AL Rookie of the Year.
Offensively, overall, the Astros are an interesting case study. The forward-thinking front office has compiled a lineup that isn’t necessarily the on-base machines that the Moneyball A’s were known for. Their .214 batting average is the lowest in the American League and their on-base percentage is in the bottom five. Their strategy for scoring runs involves stealing tons of bases (they have swiped an AL-leading 97 bags) and hitting dingers (174). The two game plans (running wild and swinging for the fences) don’t jive considering that the kind of fence-clearing power could score a runner from any base.
There is no question that this is a significant series for both teams. The Twins are trying to maintain their position in the wild card race and the Astros are trying to distance themselves from the rest of the AL West. This should be a can’t miss series.
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