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  • Terry Ryan: Still Employed


    Twins Fan From Afar

    Ron Gardenhire took the fall yesterday for four seasons of disgusting baseball. That decision was correct. Baseball is a business. And lately, business hasn't been good for the Twins. After the press conference, I was left thinking, "Well, that was pretty good as far as those things go. Very Minnesotan, really. But why the hell does Terry Ryan still have a job?" And it's still bothering me today.

    Twins Video

    2014

    Kevin Correia. 23 starts. 4.94 ERA.

    Johan Pino. 11 starts. 5.07 ERA.

    Sam Deduno. 8 starts. 4.6 ERA.

    Anthony Swarzak. 4 starts. 4.6 ERA.

    Logan Darnell. 4 starts. 7.13 ERA.

    Mike Pelfrey. 5 starts. 7.99 ERA.

    Tommy Milone. 5 starts. 7.03 ERA.

    Kris Johnson. 3 starts. 4.73 ERA.

    2013

    Mike Pelfrey. 29 starts. 5.19 ERA.

    Scott Diamond. 24 starts. 5.43 ERA.

    Pedro Hernandez. 12 starts. 6.83 ERA.

    Liam Hendriks. 8 starts. 6.85 ERA.

    PJ Walters. 8 starts. 5.95 ERA.

    Cole De Vries. 2 starts. 10.80 ERA.

    2012

    Nick Blackburn. 19 starts. 7.39 ERA.

    Liam Hendriks. 16 starts. 5.59 ERA.

    Anthony Swarzak. 5 starts. 5.03 ERA.

    Carl Pavano. 11 starts. 6.00 ERA.

    PJ Walters. 12 starts. 5.69 ERA.

    Jason Marquis. 7 starts. 8.47 ERA.

    Esmerling Vasquez. 6 starts. 5.68 ERA.

    As Gardy and Ryan both noted, the reason the manager got canned is because the team didn't win enough games. For sure, Gardy was a contributor to that. Guys were played out of position, he refused to platoon players, the Twins are among the least likely teams to shift defensively, he used his closer in a very limited, sometimes nonsensical role, and I have huge concerns about his ability to handle player injuries. Those are just a few things, though. Sure, maybe those decisions cost the Twins three, four, five games a year. Maybe more. Maybe less. Tough to tell. But the point is, a manager's role in the playing of the game itself is limited.

    I keep going back to Terry Ryan. Gardy's job was not to set the roster; it was to play the players on the roster, be the "field manager." Take a look at the motley crew of pitchers, games started and ERAs that I listed above (note: for guys that both started and relieved, I just used their combined ERA -- but you get the picture. Note also, I didn't include guys like Trevor May or Ricky Nolasco, who were bad this season but should improve -- there's a difference between a prospect like May learning the big leagues, or a veteran like Nolasco having a career-awful year, and Cole De Vries.). For 2012, that list accounts for 76/162 starts; for 2013 it was 83 starts; and for 2014 it was 63 starts. Those are huge chunks of the season where the Twins were trotting out starting pitchers, and sometimes relievers masked as starters, who gave the team little chance to win. That failure is not on Ron Gardenhire. There's no way that Gardy said, after a bunch of awful starts, "Terry, I just know Jason Marquis is gonna turn the corner. Give him more time." Or, "Pedro Hernandez -- I need that guy starting right now!" Are you kidding?!?!

    I'm sure Gardy lost tons of sleep over his team's pathetic starting pitching, which, incidentally, continually wore down what may have been decent bullpens. Yes, Gardy defends his players publicly, but what manager wouldn't want great starting pitching? What manager wouldn't beg his general manager for help as his team gets shelled every night?

    I know what you're thinking: I've completely forgotten the part of the narrative where Bill Smith ruined the organization and Terry Ryan is rebuilding it, and where Ryan is one of the best baseball minds out there. But if there's one thing Ryan can be faulted for, it's failing to draft/develop/acquire better-than-average starting pitching -- and this goes back quite some time, long before Bill Smith. A team can acquire players via the draft, the Rule 5 draft, trade, international signing, and by the free agent route. The Twins have always needed better starting pitching. For the love of God, Brian Duensing started playoff games! Ryan, by and large, has failed to get his manager good pitching. The team, understandably, is reluctant to part with prospects. The best prospects are just now beginning to get to the majors--note that the Twins did not draft May or Alex Meyer-- and it wasn't until last off-season that Ryan went out on the free agent market to spend real money. Too little. Too late. For Gardy, at least.

    Look again at that list. 76 starts. 83 starts. 63 starts. Just for fun, imagine that, in just 20 of those starts each year, the Twins had had a starting pitcher who could go six innings and give you a 3.5 or 4.0 ERA. I'm not even talking about a superstar. Just a better-than-average pitcher. Might the Twins win half those games? Perhaps. Imagine what another 10 wins would have made you think about the Twins' 2014 season. 80 wins and 82 losses sounds a hell of a lot better than 70-92.

    In the end, Gardy had to go. He was past his prime, the Twins have a bunch of young guys coming up, and sometimes change for the sake of change is reason enough. But I can't get over the feeling that Ryan somehow is coming off unscathed in this mess, as if he has life-time tenure, when in reality the Twins' record is as much a reflection on him as it is on Gardy.

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    an area of strength for our club (international scouting).

    I'm actually not picking on TR's international scouting.

     

    The problem was he has invested $130 million the past three years on domestic free agents, $100 million of that on players age 30 and over, that did very little to further the rebuild or bring us back to contention.

     

    Now, pocketing that money doesn't really get us back to contention quicker either.  So the international free agents I listed were just examples of how he could have better used that money to get potential impact players and long-term assets, rather than treading water with an admittedly weak domestic FA crop.

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    Yeah, let's compartmentalize the roster.  No sense even bidding on impact talent that's not starting pitchers.  It's not like that talent could be traded for a starting pitcher, or allow you to trade other players/prospects for starting pitchers.

     

    This thread reminds me of the meme that the Twins were dumb for letting David Ortiz go.   When 29 teams make a mistake on a guy, I am not going to sit here and act like this is some huge organizational deficiency.  You can if you want, you and Mike seem happy to do so. 

    Edited by tobi0040
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    But again these guys are not starting pitchers.  Which is the actual problem.

    Hey!  I just remembered!  Haven't there been a few decent starting pitchers to come out of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan recently?

     

    I see TR was in the mix for Iwakuma (Sosnick-Cobbe client) in his first months back as GM, but he declined to blow away Seattle's modest offer.  I do not recall us pursuing any other international free agent pitchers.

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    Hey!  I just remembered!  Haven't there been a few decent starting pitchers to come out of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan recently?

     

    I see TR was in the mix for Iwakuma (Sosnick-Cobbe client) in his first months back as GM, but he declined to blow away Seattle's modest offer.  I do not recall us pursuing any other international free agent pitchers.

     

    Would you have wanted us to drop $170M on Tanaka last summer?  At the time?  Scouts were all over the board but nobody credible thought he was in the same ballpark as Darvish.  At the time it looked like ace money for a #2 starter.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    This thread reminds me of the meme that the Twins were dumb for letting David Ortiz go.   When 29 teams make a mistake on a guy, I am not going to sit here and act like this is some huge organizational deficiency.  You can if you want, you and Mike seem happy to do so. 

    What does the passage you quote have anything to do with Ortiz?  I am confused.

     

    Again, you asked if there was anything TR could have done differently to speed the rebuild and return to contention.  I replied that instead of treading $100 million worth of 30+ year old water in domestic free agency (and complaining about getting stymied in your efforts to spend more there), similar investments in high-ceiling international free agents would have been better.  Small-market Oakland did it; division rival White Sox did it.  Rebuilding Cubs did it; Orioles tried it; I-don't-know-how-to-classify-them Seattle did it too.  Evidence suggests TR did nothing more than dip his toes into the Iwakuma pond, briefly, at the start of his new tenure.

     

    If you didn't want to hear that answer, why did you ask the question?

     

    Nowhere did "huge organizational deficiency" or David Ortiz come up.

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    What does the passage you quote have anything to do with Ortiz?  I am confused.

     

    Again, you asked if there was anything TR could have done differently to speed the rebuild and return to contention.  I replied that instead of treading $100 million worth of 30+ year old water in domestic free agency (and complaining about getting stymied in your efforts to spend more there), similar investments in high-ceiling international free agents would have been better.  Small-market Oakland did it; division rival White Sox did it.  Rebuilding Cubs did it; Orioles tried it; I-don't-know-how-to-classify-them Seattle did it too.  Evidence suggests TR did nothing more than dip his toes into the Iwakuma pond, briefly, at the start of his new tenure.

     

    If you didn't want to hear that answer, why did you ask the question?

     

    Nowhere did "huge organizational deficiency" or David Ortiz come up.

     

    Here is why I think it is the same thing.

     

    Ortiz was OK here and never healthy.  We cut him.  Nobody gave the guy any money.  The team that did sign him had him on their bench for 3-4 months.  Then he turned into a hall of fame player.  People sit here and act like Terry Ryan had four aces with a king kicker and he folded the hand. Just bringing up his name invokes disgust for Terry Ryan 12 years later.

     

    You guys are ripping Terry for not signing Cuban outfielders. 

     

    One turned out to be an all star where the high bidder paid him only an AAV of $11M.  Clearly 29 GM's mis-judged the value of this guy.  The White Sox in a sense mis-judged him as well. They would have offered more if they knew just how good he was going to be in a blind bid scenario.

     

    The Puig signing was ridiculed around the league at the time.  Scouts and GM's were wondering what the Dodgers were smoking.  Again, 29 GM's missed this.

     

    Cespedes, it is not really clear to me that $9M a year is a good contract for him.

     

    Translation, Terry deserves as much heat as 28 other GM's for "missing out" on two players and this line of attack is 99% hindsight. It doesn't strike me as an organizational flaw we need to focus on, nor are these players going to help our pitching staff out.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    You guys are ripping Terry for not signing Cuban outfielders. 

    You're the one who has limited this to "Cuban outfielders" and specifically just two of them.

     

    Let me preface this by saying I'm not criticizing TR for not signing any specific guy, but since TR took over in 2011, here is a list of "major" international free agents which TR has taken little or no documented interest in:

     

    Darvish

    Cespedes

    Iwakuma

    Chen

    Wada

    Aoki

    Soler

    Ryu

    Puig

    Gonzalez

    Abreu

    Diaz

    Arruebarrena

    Guerrero

    Castillo

    Despaigne

     

    That's just off the top of my head.  The max guarantee in this group was $72 mil for 6-7 years, but most of them for around Willingham money (~$25 mil) or less, almost all controllable for 6+ years.  13 different organizations signed the above guys, some of them signed multiples.  Expand it a couple years earlier (and throw in the Yankees/Tanaka blockbuster, which I intentionally excluded), and you will find a majority of MLB organizations made some kind of major Cuban/Asian player investment.

     

    Yet some unknown modest offer to Sosnick-Cobbe client Iwakuma (who ultimately signed with Seattle for $1.9 mil guaranteed, although he left money on the table) is the only documented interest I can find from TR.  Why?  No room in our 2012-2015+ organization?  Liked the domestic FA market better?  Doesn't like bidding?  Bill Smith's bad experience with Nishioka?  Fear of the unknown?

     

    And I will repeat: I don't necessarily think this is a fireable offense, but in combination with his actions and statements about the domestic FA market, it's an area I would question TR's strategy (or lack thereof), certainly in light of his recent negative assessment of Gardy's role in the rebuild (the topic of this thread).

    Edited by spycake
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    You're the one who has limited this to "Cuban outfielders" and specifically just two of them.

     

    Let me preface this by saying I'm not criticizing TR for not signing any specific guy, but since TR took over in 2011, here is a list of "major" international free agents which TR has taken little or no documented interest in:

     

    Darvish

    Cespedes

    Iwakuma

    Chen

    Wada

    Aoki

    Soler

    Ryu

    Puig

    Gonzalez

    Abreu

    Diaz

    Arruebarrena

    Guerrero

    Castillo

    Despaigne

     

    That's just off the top of my head.  The max guarantee in this group was $72 mil for 6-7 years, but most of them for around Willingham money (~$25 mil) or less, almost all controllable for 6+ years.  13 different organizations signed the above guys, some of them signed multiples.  Expand it a couple years earlier (and throw in the Yankees/Tanaka blockbuster, which I intentionally excluded), and you will find a majority of MLB organizations made some kind of major Cuban/Asian player investment.

     

    Yet some unknown modest offer to Sosnick-Cobbe client Iwakuma (who ultimately signed with Seattle for $1.9 mil guaranteed, although he left money on the table) is the only documented interest I can find from TR.  Why?  No room in our 2012-2015+ organization?  Liked the domestic FA market better?  Doesn't like bidding?  Bill Smith's bad experience with Nishioka?  Fear of the unknown?

     

    And I will repeat: I don't necessarily think this is a fireable offense, but in combination with his actions and statements about the domestic FA market, it's an area I would question TR's strategy (or lack thereof), certainly in light of his recent negative assessment of Gardy's role in the rebuild (the topic of this thread).

     

    It seemed like the Cuban guys were referenced a lot more and the only Asian player up until a few posts ago was Chen.

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    "What could Ryan have done...[to make the Twins better]?"  How about making massive changes to the organization?  Those who were reponsible for  drafting and developing?  No, he just kept the gang together, found excuses for the Twins losing records, and trusted in the old ways of roster rebuilding  using the same people to turn ducks into swans [marginal talent into viable major league players].  Oh, and while cutting payroll and praising prospects from Mount Target.

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    It seemed like the Cuban guys were referenced a lot more and the only Asian player up until a few posts ago was Chen.

    I probably used mainly Cuban as examples, but in my larger point, I tried avoiding focusing on any particular players to avoid the dreaded "so-and-so wouldn't have signed here for X reason" response.

     

    In doing some research for my post, I've actually surprised myself at the number of big international signings there have been over the past 3-4 years, and how many teams found themselves in on the action.

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    I probably used mainly Cuban as examples, but in my larger point, I tried avoiding focusing on any particular players to avoid the dreaded "so-and-so wouldn't have signed here for X reason" response.

     

    In doing some research for my post, I've actually surprised myself at the number of big international signings there have been over the past 3-4 years, and how many teams found themselves in on the action.

     

    We got Nishi, so I am guesing your analysis had us top 5 in Asia as well.

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    I probably used mainly Cuban as examples, but in my larger point, I tried avoiding focusing on any particular players to avoid the dreaded "so-and-so wouldn't have signed here for X reason" response.

     

    In doing some research for my post, I've actually surprised myself at the number of big international signings there have been over the past 3-4 years, and how many teams found themselves in on the action.

    You have been very clear in offering an alternative path of which the Twins could have followed rather than the wait and see approach of Ryan.  IMO, the alternative viewpoint, which is the one which posted the question originally, is reaching at this point.

     

    I did not have an alternative plan of action, but I think yours is very good.  Signing more international free agents would have been a much better plan, and would have given this team more assets to wrk with.

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