Ten To Extend: A Five-Part Series (Part 4)

4) Kevin Jepsen, relief pitcher

Jepsen reached an agreement with the Twins to avoid arbitration. Jepsen sought $5.4 million, the Twins offered $5.05 million and the team settled at $5,312,500. While it was taking a few extra weeks to come to an agreement, it seemed there was a possibility that the Twins might be interested in securing an extra year of Jepsen’s services - the first year of Jepsen’s free agency.

After coming over to the Twins in a deadline deal with Tampa Bay, Jepsen filled in as the club’s closer, saving 10 games and finishing seven others in his 29 appearances. He’s likely to be the set-up man in the 2016 bullpen and be the back-up closer.

The Twins did make a similar deal with Jared Burton in the winter of 2012. Burton struggled after an impressive first year and the club chose to buy out the team’s option. Coincidentally enough, when you visit Kevin Jepsen’s Baseball Reference page, Burton shows up as the player most similar to Jepsen. Maybe that’s reason enough to play the year out.

It would have been best - if the parties involved were interested - to agree to an extension when the sides were negotiating for 2016. When a player is this close to free agency for the first time, tacking on a year probably isn’t very appealing. And once the 2016 contract was signed, free agency is only one step away.

Could the Twins consider an in-season deal? I wouldn’t call it an impossibility, but at any rate, there would have to be some incentives that pay Jepsen extra if he assumes the closer role. Incentives that, by rule, would have to pay him for “games finished” in addition to another incentive that is likely to be included for “games pitched.”

3) Miguel Sano, monster playing right field

There’s literally no way to start thinking about signing Sano to an extension without considering the record contract that Giancarlo Stanton signed 16 months ago with Miami.

The difference, or course, is that Stanton had over four years of service when he signed his deal and Sano is still short of a full year. Another notable difference is that Stanton is in Miami and Sano, represented by CAA and Roc Nation, is in flyover country. If I were representing Sano, my advice would be: Play out these next few years and enormous bags of money will be awaiting you in New York or wherever it is you’d like to make hundreds of millions of dollars.

That doesn’t mean that there’s no risk for Sano to go year-to-year with the Twins. He’s already missed a year of baseball after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s in the midst of a positional move that many around baseball are questioning whether he can handle. And if you can’t play defense, you’re limited to the American League (for now).

My belief is ALWAYS that if a team is willing to guarantee money, that the return should be at least a year of free agency. Though I’m not picky enough to say it needs to include or not include a team option. At a minimum we’re talking about a seven-year deal.

If we were going year-to-year, I’d renew Sano’s deal for $530,000 in 2016. In the event of a long-term deal, I’d be willing to bump that up. The increase for his 1+ and 2+ seasons will make Stanton’s raises (a total of $121,000) look tiny as I’d be comfortable hitting $1 million in 2018. In comparison, Stanton made only $537,000 in his season before hitting arbitration (though that was without an extension).

2016 (0+): $550,000

2017 (1+): $775,000

2018 (2+): $1 million

Arbitration is where it gets tricky. Stanton avoided his first year of arbitration by agreeing to a deal worth $5.5 million. And he’ll get a total of $22 million for his three arbitration years. By comparison, Mike Trout signed a deal that guarantees him nearly $20 million in his third year of arbitration alone. Josh Donaldson signed a two-year deal that will pay him $17 million in his third (of four) years of arbitration. (He was a Super 2.) Prince Fielder was awarded $15.5 in his final arbitration year… in 2011. The point is not that Sano is Mike Trout or Josh Donaldson or Prince Fielder, but instead how expensive arbitration can be going year-by-year or by an extension.

So let’s enter in the extension signed by Anthony Rizzo. Another player who had four years of arbitration in front of him, Rizzo agreed to be paid $5 million for the first two and $7 million for the last two. Getting a guy to sign early - Rizzo signed his deal as a 1+ player - locks him in at a significantly lower price.

2019 (3+): $5 million

2020 (4+): $8 million

2021 (5+): $11 million

That puts Sano’s arbitration years about 10% higher than what Stanton earned. Rizzo has escalators in his deal that increase his salary based on MVP finishes. Sano can have those too. If he wins an MVP or finishes Top 5 in the voting twice any time between 2016 and 2020, all ensuing salaries and options increase by $1 million. We’ll even tack on an extra $2 million for a second MVP or a third Top 5 finish.

This particular proposal buys out one free agency year guaranteed and adds a team option for the 2023 season.

2022 (6+): $14.5 million

2023 (7+): $17.5 million ($1.75 million buyout)

The seven-year, $42.575 million pact eclipses Rizzo’s $41 million deal, could grow to be over $65 million and guarantees that Sano hits free agency at age 30. While there’s certainly risk for both parties involved, would this be a deal that both sides could/would agree on?