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  • Tampa Open To Trades

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Earlier this week, Tampa Bay made an organization-altering trade. Evan Longoria has been the face of the Rays organization for the majority of the last decade. The Rays dealt Longoria to the Giants as he enters his age-32 season. It will be weird to see him in different colors than Tampa’s but the Rays seem to be shifting toward a new direction.

    Could Minnesota take advantage of Tampa’s need to part with higher-paid players?

    Image courtesy of Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

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    Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays are “open to trading most of their higher-paid players.” Those players would include former All-Star Chris Archer, a starting pitcher, and closer Alex Colome. Both of these players are going to come at a high cost. There are other options in Tampa though and those might be the players Minnesota should target.

    Archer is under team control for four more years for only $34 million. He has a decent track record and he’s under 30-years old. Colome was an All-Star in 2016 and he is arbitration eligible for the first time in 2018. That means he can be a free agent until 2021. That being said, it is going to take a king’s ransom to pry either of them out of Tampa.

    https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/943917621732397056

    Another trade target for Minnesota could be right-handed pitcher Jake Odorizzi. Over the last three seasons, he’s pitched over 500 innings with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Compared to the players above, he has fewer years of team control as he will be a free agent in 2020. He could come at a cheaper cost based on his years of control and his 2017 performance. https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/942167855633707011

    At the Winter Meetings, the Rays were not in much of a hurry to deal away any assets. However, things have changed with Longoria being dealt. If Tampa wants to capitalize on Odorizzi’s value, this off-season might be the opportunity to trade him. Tampa might run out of options as Odorizzi moves closer to free agency.

    If the Twins are serious about dealing with Tampa, Odorizzi seems like the most likely target. Archer would instantly become the Twins’ ace but the Twins might not have the prospects to strike a deal. My guess is Royce Lewis would need to be included and Minnesota is unlikely to part with their top prospect. Colome could help the Twins to get closer to a “super bullpen” but he would also come at quite the cost.

    Tampa isn’t going to be trading away their top assets for peanuts. Small market organization like Tampa are built on being smart with their assets and trading away pieces with value to rebuild. The Rays are open to trades and Minnesota needs to be smart about this opportunity.

    If the right deal can be struck, Minnesota should pounce on the opportunity. Otherwise, it might be better to look for other available options on the starting pitching market.

    Should Minnesota target any of Tampa’s trade assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    They have to do something. I'm not sure if Archer will cost as much as some are suggesting here, but he's going to be pricey. I've seen enough on Cole's cost that I'm not too excited about that option either given that his performance has never matched his reputation. I'd rather spend and get Darvish. I'd certainly trade for Archer for the right price, but if it's going to cost what's suggested here, I'd pass.

    as Mr Brooks said, they need 2 rotation pieces, one immediate front of the rotation like Darvish that is clearly prioritized by the FO, and another 2-3 starter type. It’s not clear yet by the FO’s posture, but I doubt the FO has the budget available to sign Darvish (or maybe Arrieta) AND sign a second tier Cobb/Lynn and below that tier in free agency, it doesn’t clearly improve over Mejia/Gibson or compete with Santana

     

    Erv is in the twighlight of his career, last year was a career year for him. It’s not realistic to expect the same in 18. I expect him to regress a bit and get passed up by an improving Berrios in 18... so that second acquisition should hopefully push a healthy and realativly effective Erv to 4th

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    Linus

    Linus 4,149

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I never thought I would say this but I am now ready to consider Sano in a trade for good starting pitching. I'm afraid he is going to end up being Chris Carter. Problem is if you are wrong on that premise the cost of the mistake is really high. But they have to add pitching to this young core and Sano is now the one I trust the least.

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    snap4birds

    snap4birds 130

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

     

     

    If Falvine "go big" and make the splash, the glut of prospects it would take leaves the franchise with little potential for future growth or replacement of the current "core" players.    Maybe this is the direction they might wish to go, but I seriously have my doubts.   Our beloved Twins would bleed mightily to gain this ground.

     

    Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels.  I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality.  They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.  

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    BuxtonBandwagon

    BuxtonBandwagon 50

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    My thought would still be hope we sign Darvish and wait till the deadline. If we're contenders then ship out some of the farm for a starter or reliever. But if we can get Darvish then let's hope we get to July with a good record then go hunting for a good pitcher.

     

    Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels.  I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality.  They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.  

     

    I like this post tho. We have a lot of prospects that could be major leaguers some day and there's won't be room for all of em on our roster. Hope we contend this year and the prospects take another step then move some for a pitcher.

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    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 5,941

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Sickels said there was a huge amount of C+ in the system starting around 13. The C+ really don’t have a lot of value now towards adding a good starting pitcher.

     

    Hopefully several of the C+ prospects have a really good first half and they will be in a better position to make mid season trades. It is incredibly critical that they develop the talent they have in the minors better than most. It is the only route to sustained success.

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    MN_ExPat

    MN_ExPat 1,845

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels.  I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality.  They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.  

    Very good point and won't disagree with you at all.   Just concerned that the price might be too high.

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    savvyspy

    savvyspy 219

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    If the price is always going to be “too high” why aren’t the Twins sellers? Maybe we could unload Sano, Dozier, Santana, and build around Kepler, Rosario, Barrios, and Buxton?

     

    You are either buyers or sellers. Just signing half measures coming off major arm surgeries is not a strategy that makes any sense.

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    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    A good framework for valuing prospects.

     

    http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

     

    Here’s what fangraphs did with it

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-dream-up-a-michael-fulmer-trade/

     

     

    Here’s what a Brewers blog 216 stitches did with it. I like the Brewers comp to the Twins.

     

    https://216stitches.org/2017/12/15/chris-archer-milwaukee-brewers-trade/

     

     

    How does this shape possible trade scenarios? I think Gordon, Romero and Granite plus, might get it done.

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    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Prospects are overrated and the Twins can't wait any longer to finish the rebuild. Every year that you hold and wait equals one more year that Buxton, Sano and the young core inches closer to FA.

     

    The cost would be high (Lewis plus 1-2 other top 5 prospects) but you get a 10+K/9 and <3 BB/9 (avg 200 IP for 4 seasons) 29 yr old on a great contract (locked up for 4 years for peanuts). Getting Archer and his low contract would allow the Twins to go after another sort of expensive FA or really break the bank and sign Darvish also.

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    Here’s what a Brewers blog 216 stitches did with it. I like the Brewers comp to the Twins.

     

    https://216stitches.org/2017/12/15/chris-archer-milwaukee-brewers-trade/

     

     

    How does this shape possible trade scenarios? I think Gordon, Romero and Granite plus, might get it done.

    That blog says in general terms that it should take "something like a top 25 hitting prospect, a top 50 hitting prospect and a back end of the top 100 pitcher". And then they go and fudge that estimate by leading off their trade package with Keon Broxton, who is none of those things.

     

    And unfortunately, your Twins version fudges it further. Gordon is not a top 25 hitting prospect after his second half 2017, and Granite is nowhere near a top 50 hitting prospect.

     

    Tampa has no urgency to trade Archer. There is no way they bother pulling the trigger on a Twins deal that doesn't at least include one of Lewis, Berrios, or Buxton. Thus a deal is unlikely now.

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