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  • Switching Gears

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    Ten days ago, the Twins were holding strong to the second AL Wild Card spot. Twins fans watched the July 31 trade deadline pass and all they got was a t-shirt. Wait. No, they got reliever Kevin Jepsen, but that certainly wasn’t going to be a difference-maker. Optimists pointed out that the Twins have typically fared pretty well in August trades. They could make a deal at that time.

    In the last week, the Twins were swept in Toronto and barely eked out one win in Cleveland. It wasn't pretty... at all.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    Now to the present, and the Twins are well out of contention for an AL Wild Card. They are 11.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central. The Blue Jays and Angels currently hold the two AL Wild Card positions. Let’s be honest, the Blue Jays will win the AL East, so the Yankees are also in the Wild Card race. And the Astros and Angels are separated by a half game in the AL West. The Twins also trail Baltimore, Texas and Tampa Bay now in the race for a Wild Card spot. The Detroit Tigers, who sold at the July trade deadline, are just one game behind the Twins.

    With all that said, a week ago the hope would have been to make a trade in August to bring in veteran pieces. Now, just a week later, the Twins front office likely needs to switch gears. They should now be looking to get veteran players through waivers so that they can make some deals for more young players.

    Let’s take a look at some of the Twins veterans who could be dealt in August.

    As you know, pretty much every player on the roster gets put on revocable waivers. If a player is claimed by another team, three things can happen.

    1.) The Twins could work with that claiming team to work out a trade.

    2.) The Twins could pull him back.

    3.) The Twins could let the player go to the claiming team without anything in return.

    Before we go any further, Joe Mauer’s no-trade clause (due to his 10-5 status) means that he can’t be traded without his consent, so no need to go there.

    Kurt Suzuki – The 31-year-old catcher will likely clear waivers and could be traded to a team looking for a backup catcher for this year and next. Unlikely.

    Trevor Plouffe – He would get claimed, and the Twins would rightfully ask for a ton to actually trade him. Unlikely.

    Torii Hunter – He will only be traded if he wants to be traded. He’s said that he wants to end his career with the Twins, and my personal opinion is that he should as well. Very Unlikely.

    Oswaldo Arcia/Danny Santana – The Twins wouldn’t just hand them over, and both would be claimed. They both are out of options in 2016. I do think both could be traded in the right deal. Fifty-Fifty.

    Eduardo Escobar – I don’t know that Escobar would clear waivers. The Twins would want to get something in return for him. He’s still young and showed last year that he can be a solid MLB shortstop if he’s given that job. Teams are always looking for solid shortstop play.. I wouldn’t give up Escobar unless the team got a very nice return. Unlikely

    Eduardo Nunez – There is a decent chance that he would get claimed. He’s had a very solid season this year as a utility man, and there is value in that. Do the Twins plan on him being back next year? Possible.

    Ricky Nolasco – If anyone claimed him, the Twins would happily just hand him over, not worrying about return of any kind.

    Phil Hughes – We knew he wouldn’t duplicate those 2014 numbers, but he has been very inconsistent. On Sunday, he put in his worst start as a Twins pitcher. His velocity was down. The Twins had him on a three-year deal, but after last year, they chose to give him big money and five years. They wouldn’t just give him away, but he would likely clear waivers. Would anyone take on that contract now? Unlikely.

    Ervin Santana – After over a decade of solid year after solid year, Santana missed the first 80 games of the 2015 season due to a PED suspension. Since his return, he’s had a couple of very good starts and more poor starts. He’s still got another four years left on his contract. Unlikely.

    Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey was actually quite good through much of the first half, but he has really struggled the last month. He did have a game very recently where he went eight shutout innings and gave up just four hits. However, more frequently, he hasn’t been able to get through five innings. That said, the Twins got cash for Kevin Correia, so they might be able to find a taker for Pelfrey too. There could be a team that wants to throw him in the bullpen, and he could get good out there. Pretty good.

    Brian Duensing/Casey Fien/Blaine Boyer – If anyone is interested at this point, take it. Possible.

    Following the July 31 trade deadline, Twins fans still thought they would add some talent in August. One week later, it looks like it’d be wise to switch gears and become sellers.

    People often asked me if I thought that the Twins should “Go for it” this year. My response was that this year we are just starting to see some of that immense talent from the farm system. They’re getting their feet wet and they did get to play in some intense games. But that it was year one of a plan that will hopefully have the Twins competing for division titles for the next eight to ten years. It’s like the first grade year, and yet, it wasn’t supposed to be. It’s more like kindergarten, readying yourself for everything that comes with elementary school.

    The Twins are pretty close. It’d be nice if they could deal some veterans for more talent. Frankly, the guys that they would be willing to trade won’t bring in a lot. It would still be nice to make a couple of deals to open up more playing time for some of the youth that will be part of that next six to eight years.

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily, Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects.
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    Everyday Eddy

    Everyday Eddy 152

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    We will just have to disagree.

     

    I think Sano, May, Buxton, and Berrios will all be with the squad all year next year barring injury. May and Berrios in the rotation. 

     

    Berrios and Buxton will be up Sept. 1 of this year at the latest.

     

    I'm sure they will be on the roster.  So will Nolasco, Hughes and Santana. Also nothing about Ryan's track record suggests he's not going to sign a couple more Robinsons, Pelfreys, Nolascos, Stauffers, etc.   He has rarely made a good signing or trade, which is why I have no faith he will suddenly figure out that aspect of being a GM.

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    I'm sure they will be on the roster.  So will Nolasco, Hughes and Santana. Also nothing about Ryan's track record suggests he's not going to sign a couple more Robinsons, Pelfreys, Nolascos, Stauffers, etc.   He has rarely made a good signing or trade, which is why I have no faith he will suddenly figure out that aspect of being a GM.

     

    From 2011 to 2014 we had about the worst rotation in baseball.  Literally no pitching prospects stepped up during that time period, save Gibson last year who was still a little hit or miss.  That is why those guys were signed.

     

    Gibson and May have looked like they are pieces and Berrios has not skipped a beat on his march up here. So I don't see any new additions to the rotation and Pelfrey will be gone.

     

    Personally, I think Terry is salivating at the cheap labor he has coming through right now.  The last thing he wants to do is sign another Nolasco or Santana.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    Everyday Eddy

    Everyday Eddy 152

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    From 2011 to 2014 we had about the worst rotation in baseball.  Literally no pitching prospects stepped up during that time period, save Gibson last year who was still a little hit or miss.  That is why those guys were signed.

     

    Gibson and May have looked like they are pieces and Berrios has not skipped a beat on his march up here. So I don't see any new additions to the rotation and Pelfrey will be gone.

     

    And who's fault was that?

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    And who's fault was that?

     

    Probably more Bill Smith, who was the GM from 2007 to 2011 than Terry.  He traded away both Johan Santana and Matt Garza. And basically whiffed on every first round and supplemental pick from 2008 to 2011, save Gibson who was out for two years with TJ.

     

    Garza had a sub 4.00 ERA each year from 2007 to 2013.  Had the Twins played their cards right with Johan he would not have needed a 7 year deal and he had 3 more good years thru age 31.  If any of this is on Terry it is that one.

     

     

    Edited by tobi0040
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    SwainZag

    SwainZag 5,031

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    And who's fault was that?

     

    It was result of a poor stretch of  drafting over a 5-6 year period.  If you are TR heading into 2013 with a severe lack of talent on the big league club and severe lack of talent in the high minor leagues, what do you do?  

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    Everyday Eddy

    Everyday Eddy 152

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    It was result of a poor stretch of  drafting over a 5-6 year period.  If you are TR heading into 2013 with a severe lack of talent on the big league club and severe lack of talent in the high minor leagues, what do you do?  

     

    I fire my scouting staff

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    I fire my scouting staff

     

    Let’s take a step back.

     

    We win 95 or so games in 2010 with a $115M payroll.  The next year with the same roster we keep payroll at $115M and we win like 62 games.  It is an aging roster, most of the key guys are 30+ and want a fair amount of money.  Our farm system is in the lower 1/3 of the league and the key guys, like Sano and Gibson are not ready.   Ownership decides to tear the team apart and rebuild with an emphasis on rebuilding a sustainable team.   Given the situation I think that was the right move to make.  That roster/farm system was not going to go from 62 wins to 92 wins in a year or two.  We were too far away.

     

    Let me first say that I don’t like everything Terry did.  But he was brought into rebuild the team to a sustainable winning team.  We have the second best farm system and several of those guys have stepped up.  It is hard for me to sit here and say he failed at completing his task.

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    Everyday Eddy

    Everyday Eddy 152

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Let’s take a step back.

     

    We win 95 or so games in 2010 with a $115M payroll.  The next year with the same roster we keep payroll at $115M and we win like 62 games.  It is an aging roster, most of the key guys are 30+ and want a fair amount of money.  Our farm system is in the lower 1/3 of the league and the key guys, like Sano and Gibson are not ready.   Ownership decides to tear the team apart and rebuild with an emphasis on rebuilding a sustainable team.   Given the situation I think that was the right move to make.  That roster/farm system was not going to go from 62 wins to 92 wins in a year or two.  We were too far away.

     

    Let me first say that I don’t like everything Terry did.  But he was brought into rebuild the team to a sustainable winning team.  We have the second best farm system and several of those guys have stepped up.  It is hard for me to sit here and say he failed at completing his t

     

    Great. How does that help with 2013 and on?

     

     

    If your scouting staff leads you to the worst farm system in baseball you get a new scouting staff.   I can't begin to guess how the team might change had a different scouting staff been brought in.   Could be better, could be worse.   But there's this thing called accountability that should come into play.

    Giving the twins scouts/GM credit for making an easy decision drafting buxton and another no brainer to sign Sano is stupid.   Any person on this earth could have made those simple decisions.   It's the years that the twins were decent and hitting on no draft picks that they should be judged

    Edited by Everyday Eddy
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    SwainZag

    SwainZag 5,031

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    If your scouting staff leads you to the worst farm system in baseball you get a new scouting staff.   I can't begin to guess how the team might change had a different scouting staff been brought in.   Could be better, could be worse.   But there's this thing called accountability that should come into play.

    Giving the twins scouts/GM credit for making an easy decision drafting buxton and another no brainer to sign Sano is stupid.   Any person on this earth could have made those simple decisions.   It's the years that the twins were decent and hitting on no draft picks that they should be judged

     

    Firing the scouting department doesn't answer the question what TR was going to do to put together something for 2013.  There were a slew of bad options.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

    If your scouting staff leads you to the worst farm system in baseball you get a new scouting staff.

    The Twins never had the worst farm system in baseball. I can't remember them ever dropping below #25, actually.

     

    Mistakes were made and the Twins didn't draft very well but coming off a decade of success, it shouldn't have been a surprise the Twins spend a period of time scuffling in the bottom third of farm systems. IIRC, they picked in the top 15 just once from 2002-2011.

     

    edit: I just glanced through old farm system rankings and didn't see anyone rank the Twins below #22 from 2008-2010. Most were in the high teens, it seems (and some were actually top ten, gah...).

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    Everyday Eddy

    Everyday Eddy 152

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Firing the scouting department doesn't answer the question what TR was going to do to put together something for 2013.  There were a slew of bad options.

     

    Sorry I misinterpreted the question.   He was stuck with a lot of garbage that year.   Some of it on him though.   There was no reason not to deal Josh Willingham

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    If your scouting staff leads you to the worst farm system in baseball you get a new scouting staff.   I can't begin to guess how the team might change had a different scouting staff been brought in.   Could be better, could be worse.   But there's this thing called accountability that should come into play.

    Giving the twins scouts/GM credit for making an easy decision drafting buxton and another no brainer to sign Sano is stupid.   Any person on this earth could have made those simple decisions.   It's the years that the twins were decent and hitting on no draft picks that they should be judged

     

    A ton of people had Mark Appel #1 on their draft board and a lot of GM's would have gone with Appel or someone like Gausman who was viewed as a ML starter in short order given the MLB need.  I don't think drafting Buxton was a lock.

     

    Regarding Sano, we offered him the most money.  So we absolutely should give the GM's credit for that.  We placed a number of $3.5 on him and it was higher than anyone else.  That is the definition of good scouting.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    SwainZag

    SwainZag 5,031

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    A ton of people had Mark Appel #1 on their draft board and a lot of GM's would have gone with Appel or someone like Gausman who was viewed as a ML starter in short order given the MLB need.  I don't think drafting Buxton was a lock.

     

    Regarding Sano, we offered him the most money.  So we absolutely should give the GM's credit for that.  We placed a number of $3.5 on him and it was higher than anyone else.  That is the definition of good scouting.

     

    I remember a lot of people ripping the Buxton selection of being a toolsy HS outfielder when the Twins lacked starting pitching in their system.

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    Jham

    Jham 2,495

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    I think Terry Ryan really deserves some blame for the initial collapse, but he also deserves credit for the relative rebound.  I think he took it pretty hard when we traded away Castillo and it deflated the team.  This was back when they had the old graded FA system.  We would have received a compensatory draft pick probably better than the prospects we received in the deal.  He also knew that he'd left us in impossible positions with Hunter, Nathan, and especially Santana.  He pawned off the fall-out of the mismanagement on Smith.  Smith made things worse.  Ryan has since gone back to what initially made him successful: shrewd management of young talent and low-level FA signings.  He also seems to be embracing the things that led to his team's collapse, ie not taking every opportunity to add talent to the roster.  When our draft picks are in the 20's instead of 1-5, it is less likely we'll be able to consistently replace the talent that leaves with in-house options.  

    Edited by Jham
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