Supplementing the Twins: Lance Lynn

Homerun totals have increased by 20% since 2015 and it sure didn't look like a one year fad.

Yes, home runs have increases. So have home runs. I still can't find statistics that say a pitcher's home run given up is inversely proportional to K/9   It is likely true at the extremes, but not necessarily so. Tanaka and Darvish have given up a lot of HR while  Fulmer, Cahner and Nelson have not.

First half k/bb 22.0/9.0
Second half 17.0/11.3

His first half number were close but worse than his career norms. His second half and season overall were significantly worse than career norms entering 2017. Not everyone comes all the way back from Tommy John. The Twins need to do their homework here. His reasonable 2017 ERA is of little value projecting 2018-2021. His poor 2017 FIP and xFIP are more telling of the future than his ERA.

You do realize that pitchers don't immediately return to their pre-TJ form? 

Before TJ he would have expected to sign for 20-25M/yr. 

But it is clear that the Twins need to sign somebody this offseason. I keep seeing Gibson and Mejia in rotations. They are reasonable option as the 4th and 5th starters with some good prospects coming up but the Twins desperately need someone better in front of them. And the options are limited. Lynn might present the best combination of reasonable cost and some level of upside

You do realize that pitchers don't immediately return to their pre-TJ form? 

 

Before TJ he would have expected to sign for 20-25M/yr. 

 

But it is clear that the Twins need to sign somebody this offseason. I keep seeing Gibson and Mejia in rotations. They are reasonable option as the 4th and 5th starters with some good prospects coming up but the Twins desperately need someone better in front of them. And the options are limited. Lynn might present the best combination of reasonable cost and some level of upside

Simply responding to an earlier question about first half/second half in response to significant downturn in rates. I think that poster had hoped they improved during the season as he moved further away from TJ. They didn’t. Not everyone returns to their pre TJ level. Not every pitcher pitches as well at 31 as 28. Any team signing Lynn really needs to do their homework. They need to be confident that he will return close to his age 28 level. His value in fWAR was very similar to that of Gibson in 2017. The Twins don’t need to pay big dollars for that performance.

Simply responding to an earlier question about first half/second half in response to significant downturn in rates. I think that poster had hoped they improved during the season as he moved further away from TJ. They didn’t. Not everyone returns to their pre TJ level. Not every pitcher pitches as well at 31 as 28. Any team signing Lynn really needs to do their homework. They need to be confident that he will return close to his age 28 level. His value in fWAR was very similar to that of Gibson in 2017. The Twins don’t need to pay big dollars for that performance.

You also posted in one of the first comments about your Lynn doubts.

And again there are many reasons why a pitcher returning from TJ might fade in the second half.

One big part of your analysis that you left out is that Lynn has been much better than FIP/xFIP throughout his career. The opposite has been true of the pitcher you just compared him to though.

But the biggest point is that every single option the Twins have to add to their rotation this winter can be thoroughly picked apart like this. There is no doubt that the Twins need to add somebody (good) though.

1. Sign Darvish

2. Tell Otani that he can have the same schedule as Japan. Pitch on Sunday and DH/OF the rest of the week.

3. Sell Otani on great defense (lower ERA) and young team that will only get better.

4. Sell Otani on MidWest charm and lower cost of living.

5. Sign Otani.

Here's a Darvish + Ohtani scenario with a Kintzler thrown in

(Ohtani won't get the $10M shown as Twins don't have that much left...it is offset by the Kintzler minimal raise, he will get paid more than that)

Be the GM with the Twins Payroll Tool

You also posted in one of the first comments about your Lynn doubts.

And again there are many reasons why a pitcher returning from TJ might fade in the second half.

 

One big part of your analysis that you left out is that Lynn has been much better than FIP/xFIP throughout his career. The opposite has been true of the pitcher you just compared him to though.

 

But the biggest point is that every single option the Twins have to add to their rotation this winter can be thoroughly picked apart like this. There is no doubt that the Twins need to add somebody (good) though.

I think I do have enough doubts not to be the team that gives him a 4 or 5 year contract. There is a high likelihood that he will decline and be a Nolasco like burden on a team. I would go after the top pitchers and failing that seek a trade.

As for FIP and xFIP, in his 5 years he has outperformed in 3 of them so his career numbers after this season are better. The difference was negligible entering the season with an ERA of 3.38 and FIP of 3.39. The weight of this season has significant impact on his career numbers. Is that what you meant by throughout?

I think I do have enough doubts not to be the team that gives him a 4 or 5 year contract. There is a high likelihood that he will decline and be a Nolasco like burden on a team. I would go after the top pitchers and failing that seek a trade.

As for FIP and xFIP, in his 5 years he has outperformed in 3 of them so his career numbers after this season are better. The difference was negligible entering the season with an ERA of 3.38 and FIP of 3.39. The weight of this season has significant impact on his career numbers. Is that what you meant by throughout?

I meant his career averages and not single season which is prone to the sample size issues that you point out.

I would love to get someone even better than Lynn but are you really going to spend megabucks on Arrieta, Darvish or Tanaka? Cueto?

I meant his career averages and not single season which is prone to the sample size issues that you point out.

 

I would love to get someone even better than Lynn but are you really going to spend megabucks on Arrieta, Darvish or Tanaka? Cueto?

I think I would either spend big or seek a trade. Failing either of those, I would wait until trade deadline and pay for a rental. Santana is the exception for signing league average pitchers to a 4 year contract into their 30s. There are more Nolascos than Santanas.

I think I would either spend big or seek a trade. Failing either of those, I would wait until trade deadline and pay for a rental. Santana is the exception for signing league average pitchers to a 4 year contract into their 30s. There are more Nolascos than Santanas.

I think you might need to start naming names since spending big would be done on a 31 yr old starter or a 28 yr old that has recently gone the rest and rehab (and arthroscopic surgery) from a strained UCL. And a couple of options might not opt out and enter FA. I am not sure if any potential target meets your criteria.

As far as trades go, the board didn't like Sonny Gray this season and getting something better than Gray will require multiple of the Twins best prospects since they don't have a top 10 overall type.

I find that it is easy to pick apart starting pitcher targets when names are put out there but very hard to put a name out there that satisfies the criteria that everyone has. There will be a negative to every option.

Darvish

Darvish

So the Twins have one option? And I thought age 31 was one of your arguments?

This doesn't mean that I am against Darvish but he might cost 2x Lynn.

So the Twins have one option? And I thought age 31 was one of your arguments?

This doesn't mean that I am against Darvish but he might cost 2x Lynn.

It would probably be close to twice Lynn.  I am hoping for more like 1.5. 

The Twins have made 3 major free agent starting pitcher moves in the recent past; three moves that give a great example of the pitfalls of this route. Ervin Santana (great success), Phil Hughes (great success, then injury), and Ricky Nolasco (disaster) were all highly touted within these pages prior to their signings; and for good reason; they were veterans with track records of success. It is probably more than just coincidence that out of 3 moves with similar contract commitments, there can be such widely varying results.  I would guess that it probably represents the approximate odds of success with this avenue of building a staff.  Lance Lynn, or almost any other FA starter out there, has probably a 33% chance of long term success if the Twins (or any other team) signs them.  The variable is what impact the 66% failure rate has on the signing team.  The Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers swallow hard and move on from the failure.  The Twins are strapped and unable to make moves to offset the mistake unless or until they are able to unload the contract.  The Verlanders and Darvishes of the world probably have a somewhat better chance of success but come with a much greater cost in both annual dollars and number of years.  Think "Joe Mauer's contract and the impact it has had.  Joe is probably a much better value in the final 2 or 3 years of his 8 year deal than either of those pitchers will be. 

My preference would be to trust in the young arms coming, maybe even rushing one or two of them.  If they are not ready, the cost is not as great and the team is not hamstrung moving forward.  If it is deemed necessary to go outside of the organization I prefer a trade for an arm or two that will not excite the fan base as much since they will probably be somewhat unknown, but they will be earlier in their careers and the Twins can capitalize on their affordable years. (NOTE - check out how Cleveland built their staff).  Twins assets leaving in this type of deal should be the likes of Nick Gordon (sell high) and Kohl Stewart (potential not production).  The idea is that you have to give something to get something and we have to quit fearing that one of the young players we trade will go on to excel somewhere else.  That is the price of getting pitching.  The real price to fear and to avoid is long term onerous contracts with no production.

3.58 ERA in 138 innings against AL.  Complete game shutout in only appearance against Yankees.    I would be ok with it.

I think comparing Nolasco to Lynn is a disservice to Lynn.  Looking at WAR on Baseball-Reference, Lynn has 5 full seasons and his lowest WAR is 1.8.  Nolasco has 10 full seasons and has topped 1.8 WAR once.  Lynn is by no means an ace, but I feel pretty confident he'll produce a total of 6 WAR in the next 2 seasons, after that.....

I'd also predict Lynn produces better results than Ervin Santana in 2018 (just guessing that Undefeated Father Time starts to catch up to big Erv).  

If you can sign Lynn to a 4 year deal averaging somewhere around 15-18 million, I think you do it.  If some teams get desperate and offer more than that, or guarantee the 5th year, I think you have to walk away.

Lance Lynn may have led the league in starts, but he hasn't surpassed 200 innings since 2014. That's not good for a team that has a lackluster bullpen. Twins need durability.

So the Twins have one option? And I thought age 31 was one of your arguments?

 

This doesn't mean that I am against Darvish but he might cost 2x Lynn.

At the risk of derailing this conversation further by replying to the constant push back I will clarify once more and then I suggest we might ignore each other after your last word.

- I suggested buy big or seek a trade. Darvish is far enough above league average that he is much more likely to be a guy we want starting in the playoffs as he declines into his 30s.

- I use strikeout and walk rate because it stabilizes in a small sample. There is real reason to be concerned about Lynn’s strike out and walk rates as well as his move to AL.

- I started with that teams must do their homework. The skill of our front office in projecting the performance out 3-4 years is critical. The data available to teams makes this possible.

I would endorse opening the coffers for Darvish and be very cautious about committing to Lynn.

At the risk of derailing this conversation further by replying to the constant push back I will clarify once more and then I suggest we might ignore each other after your last word.

- I suggested buy big or seek a trade. Darvish is far enough above league average that he is much more likely to be a guy we want starting in the playoffs as he declines into his 30s.

- I use strikeout and walk rate because it stabilizes in a small sample. There is real reason to be concerned about Lynn’s strike out and walk rates as well as his move to AL.

- I started with that teams must do their homework. The skill of our front office in projecting the performance out 3-4 years is critical. The data available to teams makes this possible.

I would endorse opening the coffers for Darvish and be very cautious about committing to Lynn.

Your frustrated that I keep pressing you on alternatives but I am frustrated in every single pitching target being picked apart and called not good enough or too expensive for the Twins. This happens in every single thread.

I completely understand that Lynn didn't have a great season peripherally. It was also his first season back from TJ. And it is why he will be available at a relative discount. I would love it if the Twins outbid the league for Darvish or managed to convince Otani this was the place to be. Those seem unlikely but I will certainly put them above Lynn. The problem is that I don't think the Twins have the pieces to go big in a trade and soon that doesn't leave a lot of other options. There needs to be more of a plan than 'get Darvish'.

The Twins have made 3 major free agent starting pitcher moves in the recent past; three moves that give a great example of the pitfalls of this route. Ervin Santana (great success), Phil Hughes (great success, then injury), and Ricky Nolasco (disaster) were all highly touted within these pages prior to their signings; and for good reason; they were veterans with track records of success. It is probably more than just coincidence that out of 3 moves with similar contract commitments, there can be such widely varying results.  I would guess that it probably represents the approximate odds of success with this avenue of building a staff.  Lance Lynn, or almost any other FA starter out there, has probably a 33% chance of long term success if the Twins (or any other team) signs them.  The variable is what impact the 66% failure rate has on the signing team.  The Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers swallow hard and move on from the failure.  The Twins are strapped and unable to make moves to offset the mistake unless or until they are able to unload the contract.  The Verlanders and Darvishes of the world probably have a somewhat better chance of success but come with a much greater cost in both annual dollars and number of years.  Think "Joe Mauer's contract and the impact it has had.  Joe is probably a much better value in the final 2 or 3 years of his 8 year deal than either of those pitchers will be. 

 

My preference would be to trust in the young arms coming, maybe even rushing one or two of them.  If they are not ready, the cost is not as great and the team is not hamstrung moving forward.  If it is deemed necessary to go outside of the organization I prefer a trade for an arm or two that will not excite the fan base as much since they will probably be somewhat unknown, but they will be earlier in their careers and the Twins can capitalize on their affordable years. (NOTE - check out how Cleveland built their staff).  Twins assets leaving in this type of deal should be the likes of Nick Gordon (sell high) and Kohl Stewart (potential not production).  The idea is that you have to give something to get something and we have to quit fearing that one of the young players we trade will go on to excel somewhere else.  That is the price of getting pitching.  The real price to fear and to avoid is long term onerous contracts with no production.

The Indians built their staff by trading veterans nearing free agency. Cliff Lee, Shin Soo Choo and Jake Westbrook. What are the Twin's equivalents? 

The focus won't be on who they trade, but who they go after.  The twins can only work with the assets they have.  Not having the veteran trade options only means that they will have to use their minor/major league options.  Falvey will show his value in deciding which minor leaguers to trade and identifying younger, not yet established arms in other organizations.  At Cleveland they did not trade their veteran assets for other established veterans, but instead went after Corey Kluber types (admittedly not easy to find).  They have also been very limited in the FA route.

I expect that the offseason moves will not involve the names being kicked around, but will very likely be somewhat anonymous names coming back in return for minor leaguers that are identified as less likely to be stars at the major league level.

I do not think Lance Lynn will be a Nolasco disaster, but he might.  He might be an Ervin Santana success.  A good chance he is Hughes; a success for a year and then injured which seems to be the St Louis pattern.  No matter what, he will cost a lot in terms of both years and $, and will impact the rest of the team moves for years to come.