Sizing Up The Competition: Kansas City Royals

I'd like the "under", please.

Great article, Nick. I think Hosmer is going to be very, very good this year. That said, I would not be surprised if they barely got to 80 wins this year. Too many things can happen.

I picked KC to win the division this year and the I picked them to win the wild card the year before.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if they made the playoffs this year, but I think 3rd in our division, with a very small difference between them and the winner of the ALC, is the most likely to happen for them this year.

In regards to their pitching woes, they have Finnegan, Manae, Zimmer and Almonte, all of whom SHOULD spend time in AA or AAA this year.  Got to figure one or more of these guys will see significant time in the majors if struggles happen in the ML rotation.

Thing is, their DEFENSE really helps that pitching staff.  That's key for them as much of a key as the bullpen taking care of business after it's turned over to them.

Any team desperate enough to bring in Kendrys Morales to try and inject life into a moribund offense is in serious, serious trouble.

80-82 record, 4th place in the AL Central.

If the Twins have any chance of escaping the cellar the Royals are the team they have to top.  And with that bullpen in KC I have my doubts. 

Any team desperate enough to bring in Kendrys Morales to try and inject life into a moribund offense is in serious, serious trouble.

 

80-82 record, 4th place in the AL Central.

He's only 32.  He could easily rebound after having the one bad season.  Too many players get written off, and for that matter anointed, too quickly.  It won't likely be a great signing, but I doubt he'll be as bad as he was last year. He had a .244 BABIP last year after averaging a BABIP of around .315 the previous four.

If the Twins have any chance of escaping the cellar the Royals are the team they have to top.  And with that bullpen in KC I have my doubts. 

Seems the prevailing idea around here is that the White Sox are going to be somewhat contenders this year and go ahead of the Royals?  I don't see it.  IMO, Twins and W Sox should battle for last place again this year.

Seems the prevailing idea around here is that the White Sox are going to be somewhat contenders this year and go ahead of the Royals?  I don't see it.  IMO, Twins and W Sox should battle for last place again this year.

I'm not a big Jon Heyman fan but he seems to think that the Sox did almost everything right.  We'll know in September whether it paid off.

 Winners

1. White Sox. Rarely has a team so successfully and systematically answered so many of its major questions. They needed a righty starter. Check. They needed a closer. Check. They needed a No. 2 hitter, a cleanup hitter and lefty set-up man. Check, check and check. With Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke they scored a grand slam plus. They should compete in the improving, difficult AL Central, thanks to a reasonable outlay of slightly less than what the Cubs spent on Jon Lester. Only tiny quibble: $15 million and three years seem like a lot for Duke.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25003344/mlb-winter-winners-and-losers-all-is-well-in-chicago

I usually feel better about my point of view when Heyman and I disagree.

I like the Cleveland team.  Few holes and quality starting pitching.  Love the manager too. I see a three-way battle between the Tigers, Indians and Royals.

Six of the teams that made the playoffs last year (Royals, A's, Orioles, Pirates, Dodgers and Cardinals) were ranked in the top 10 on FanGraphs Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  Kansas City had 3 outfielders (Gordon, Cain and Dyson) individually ranked in the top 10 is DRS.  From Teams stats on DRS, Royals (40), Tigers (-65) and the Twins (-73).  A different way of looking at this is that all of Miguel Cabrera's offense (109 RBI) was essentially neutralized by the Royals defense.  I don't see any team in the division matching K.C.'s defense and they should be one of the contenders just because of that.  I enjoyed watching KC last year and wish the Twins, especially in the outfield, were modeled after the Royals outfield.  They also remind me alot like the 80's Cardinals outfield of Coleman and McGee.

They also remind me alot like the 80's Cardinals outfield of Coleman and McGee.

Don't forget Van Slyke.  Great defender too.

I like the Cleveland team.  Few holes and quality starting pitching.  Love the manager too. I see a three-way battle between the Tigers, Indians and Royals.

That's kinda how I see it too. KC could surprise if any of their stud pitchers comes through and Kendry, Moose, and Hosmer all have really solid years. If the wrong three players get hurt for Detroit? T-I-M-B-E-R!!!!

I think this prediction page needs to be saved somewhere so we can take a look at the end of the season. If my money was just my own, I'd bet a paycheck or two that the Indians don't finish last, though the wife may have something to say about that. I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion.

Edit: I just checked Steamer's projections for 2015.  They have the Indians in 2nd place in the ALC, a hair behind the Tigers.

I see the Twins and White Sox moving back to the top in the next few seasons - it'll be like old times.

Didin't realize the Royals made it to the WS with 89 regular season wins. 

I see the Twins and White Sox moving back to the top in the next few seasons - it'll be like old times.

 

Didin't realize the Royals made it to the WS with 89 regular season wins. 

A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays.  

"A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays"

They always were Jimmer.   Twins won in 87 with 85 wins.   Cards won with 83 wins in 06.  Giants won last year with 88.   Playoffs are always a crapshoot.    KC was a wild pitch away from being 0-1 last year in the playoffs rather than 11-4.    Its why I always say no one knows what would have happened if Nathan had just saved one or two games against the Yanks  or if the Twins had won game 163 back in 08.    Anyone can get hot. once there.

"A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays"

They always were Jimmer.   Twins won in 87 with 85 wins.   Cards won with 83 wins in 06.  Giants won last year with 88.   Playoffs are always a crapshoot.    KC was a wild pitch away from being 0-1 last year in the playoffs rather than 11-4.    Its why I always say no one knows what would have happened if Nathan had just saved one or two games against the Yanks  or if the Twins had won game 163 back in 08.    Anyone can get hot. once there.

Even moreso with 10 teams in the playoffs instead of the four there were in '87 and eight in '06.

In '07 all you had to do was win one series before making it to the W Series.  Way less of a crapshoot to make it to the W Series once you got to the playoffs at that point in MLB history.

I never cease to be amazed by those who see success--and then conclude that said person/team must regress the next season.  That is akin to watching coinflips then predicting that the next flip must be ... because of the previous flip or two.  If there is to be a regression I believe it is most likely by those at the extremes (Detroit and Minnesota)--Detroit is aged and has demonstrated overconfidence after "seeming" taken control of the regular season.  The Twins are built around assumptions that virtual rookies and the streaky tendencendies of Dozier, Plouffe, and Arcia can consistently produce the offense.  The older veterans could easily fall into decline if the team falls out of realistic contention.

The other three have plenty of youthful veterans whose career is building.  KC will have oodles of self-confidence and will be mentally tough.  CHI has added a lot and (at least as far as TD) have mentioned the very likely addition of Rodon to their staff, even if only as a RP (like Sale).  CLE is farther down the rebuilding road than the Twins.  The Twins will need a small miracle to escape the cellar.  The others will battle through September for 1st place--and any of them could prevail.

Interesting that every division in the American League had a winning record.   American league was 26 games over .500 against the Nationals.    I don't think the Central will be tougher this year as a whole but will be more competitive.   I don't think KC or Detroit will be as good.   Cleveland might be a bit better and the Twins and Sox should be better.   Makes for a tighter race but they still have to play mostly each other and the other two divisions.     I think nicksviking was pretty close except for Cleveland.   I don't see the Central being 18 games below .500.   Put Cleveland up there at 83-79 and you have a very tight division and if those are the numbers we are talking about then really the division is up for grabs.      I think all the teams will be kind of interesting.    Detroit loses their best pitcher.   KC loses one of their best but defense and bullpen were huge will keep them from sinking too far.    Run differential says the Twins should have won 75 and I still think the rotation and Mauer and Arcia will get them a bit better than that.      In the decade of 6 division wins the Twins were often picked to finish in the 3 to 5 spots and most of those years I could easily have imagined them 5-10 of their wins going the other way.