Should the Twins Trade for Kris Bryant?

I agree that prospects are just that, prospects. No one knows what they will turn into. Even the best prospects. Any positional players in the minors where there is extra depth should be considered for trade. Pitching will never be one of them. But you also have to consider who you are trading for, what they are worth and how long you can keep them. If you want to upgrade 3B Bryant isn't anywhere close to the value of a Arenado. If 1B is really the need then why trade for a 3rd baseman. Again and again and again... Sano will not help at 1B and will probably last there 1 year. DH is where he'll settle once Cruz is gone. This team needs to trade for pitching and if you're going to move a Lewis or Kiriloff or Larnach then get quality pitching in return. 

As much as I like Bryant I would think with his contract issues we would need to pass... Having only 2 year of control and maybe 1 would to me mean if we were going to trade for him we trade Rosario and a lower level guy... would be fine with... as both are 2 years out. 

Like most would like Donaldson if he ever makes up his mind... nice that we are still in the running but that has not gone great this off-season. But getting one stud each year is/would be a good offseason.

Otherwise some trade targets I would look at....that may cost less..... or more....

Jake Lamb (Ariz).... often injured but last healthy was in the discussion for an MVP... likely would be pretty cheap....

Kevin Cron (Ariz) has LIT up AAA but has been blocked and likely would again be fairly reasonable. Also would be under control. He would play 1st... Sano stays at 3B. 

Xander Bogarts (With David Price) Would likely cost us Lewis, one of our top OF prospects and a P prospect but... Bogarts is a top glove/bat combo that is signed for the next 7 years... Have to eat Price's contract but he would be a nice addition to our rotation. Polanco to 2nd - Arraez to 3rd and our offense is still very good and our defense is light years better. Highly unlikely but I like! 

Matt Chapman... Would take a Bagart type deal but would again take our defense up a big notch and offense would be quality also... would get for next 3 years.... 

Jed Lowrie... 10 mil for 2 years... would need to come with either Matz (2 years of use or Stroman who will be a FA after this year. Mets would like to move him...

Or last ...but very possible they put Gonzalez at 3rd who is solid there... Sano over to 1st and Bring up either Gordon or Blankenhorn to take Gonzalez utility position... Actually if we don't land Donaldson I really see this happening. 

I wouldn't trade Lewis/Kirilloff plus Graterol/Duran for two years of Bryant. That's a big overpay. 

Bryant Value Using FanGraphs WAR Values and Schwarz Arb Estimate for 2021:

4.7 WAR in 2020 x $8.2M = $38.5M

4.7 WAR in 2021 x $8.4M x 0.92 = $36.3M (8% discount rate, 3% WAR inflation)

$18.6M contract in 2020

$26.0M contract in 2021 (60% of WAR Value)

Total Excess Value: ($74.8M - 44.6M) = $30.2M

Twins FG Prospect Values:

$55M - Lewis (60FV)

$28M - Larnach, Kirilloff (50FV, Position Player)

$21M - Graterol, Duran, Balazovic (50FV, Pitcher)

At retail, Bryant is worth maybe (Duran + Jeffers) for two years of control. Probably have to add one or two young prospects due to demand.

I wouldn't trade six years of Kirilloff and Graterol for Bryant, let alone Lewis+. I'd rather overpay for Donaldson and save the prospects for a controllable SP.

If we are going to trade our top prospects...trade for Arenado (and Gray?).

Bryant...yes...If price is right. But chances are, it's not.

Bryant is a tier 1 type player. The Twins don't acquire tier 1 players. No need to speculate on this one. It won't happen. And he really isn't much of an upgrade defensively over Sano. If 3B is really a concern then Donaldson is the guy. If 3B isn't much of a concern then the Twins will continue to wait on Donaldson until he signs elsewhere instead of giving him what he wants and then saying, well we were in the mix, we tried, he didn't want to play here. Nothing new. Another feeble attempt was made, let's move on. Yippee!

Spot on. No chance of the Twins ever making a trade like that.

Here are some 2019 numbers:

 

 

DRS
Sano -5
Bryant -7

 

+/-
Sano -5
Bryant -5

 

RZR
Sano .717
Bryant .686

 

UZR
Sano -6.7
Bryant -1.4

 

I don't see how it makes sense to get Bryant to "improve" the defense.  Other than UZR he is close or worse than Sano with the glove.

Thanks — that’s really helpful. It also highlights a perception I’ve had that while Sano’s defense is below average, it’s not REALLY, REALLY bad, to the degree of doing something like, oh, I don’t know, trying him in the outfield. 

But that’s because I don’t know how to interpret fielding statistics. I’m guessing I’m not the only one. I’d love to see someone write an article that could serve as a primer on defensive stats, highlighting what they each mean, what are perceived as the strengths and weaknesses of each stat, what’s the range of players (i.e., at what number does below average turn into bad turn into horrible, and similarly on the positive side), etc.  

No

Donaldson, maybe.

Donaldson, maybe.

Front office is going to have some explaining to do if they trade for Donaldson.

In general, if you can add a top-flight “known commodity” - such as Bryant - for a couple minor leaguers who are not sure things, this is always a good option. Always.

 

Whether you actually pull the trigger is based on how much losing those minor leaguers will affect your major league team.

 

So, if we are trading away two MiLB hitters for a guy like Bryant; when the MLB team is currently LOADED with young hitters......I’m just not getting the hand-wringing.  Yes, those guys could turn into stars, but come on now we don’t have room for everyone!!  Trading Larnach and Kiriloff for instance, while it would be a blow, is not like trading away Ruth and Gehrig....or even Mauer and Morneau, and it gets value out of the players.  No, to Graterol and literally any of our better pitching prospects, obviously, but why wouldn’t you take a shot at loading up this team, when we have so much other talent?

 

We, as Twins fans, have to break out of this mindset where anyone in the minors is worth 10X any trade option.  All that gets us is teams that are decent but not superior (like the 2019 team) because we are constantly waiting for guys to mature, rather than paying for talent and loading up for a shot at the title......like virtually every other winning franchise.

Your first paragraph is just flat out wrong.  There are myriad instances in major league history where the team trading for a "known commodity" regretted what they gave up, and there's a simple reason; every known commodity in the major leagues was, once upon a time, an unsure minor league option.

While it's true the Twins have a good core of young hitters with Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Garver, and Arraez under team control for the next 4 years, Buxton can be gone in three, Rosario in two, and we currently don't have a long term DH or 1B (switch to 3B if Sano shifts across the diamond, as I think he should).  Wouldn't it be nice to replace Buxton with Lewis, Rosario with Larnach, and slot Kiriloff into 1st/DH, all for $1.5M a year, rather than sign middling veterans for 10 times that much?

I don't think any fan thinks our prospects are worth 10x what they are, but nor should we think they're worth 10% of what they are.  My suspicion is that Falvine, once they realized they wouldn't be able to sign impact FA pitching, understood they now have until August 1 to improve the roster.  I think they will swing midseason deals to improve the team, and this team will be better when the season ends than when it begins.

I agree that prospects are just that, prospects. No one knows what they will turn into. Even the best prospects. Any positional players in the minors where there is extra depth should be considered for trade. Pitching will never be one of them. But you also have to consider who you are trading for, what they are worth and how long you can keep them. If you want to upgrade 3B Bryant isn't anywhere close to the value of a Arenado. If 1B is really the need then why trade for a 3rd baseman. Again and again and again... Sano will not help at 1B and will probably last there 1 year. DH is where he'll settle once Cruz is gone. This team needs to trade for pitching and if you're going to move a Lewis or Kiriloff or Larnach then get quality pitching in return. 

You can actually take the opposing view here, which is that since you don't know if an individual prospect is going to pan out, you should hoard as many as you can, as that increases the chances at least one works out, and if more than one does, you have the best of all problems on your hands.

For example, let's say Lewis, Kiriloff, and Larnach are all 30% to be successful in the majors (just a random number, no idea if it's accurate).  Below is the probability at least one hits depending on how many of them you have;

Keep only one--30% chance

Keep only two--51% chance

Keep all three--66% chance

By keeping all 3 of these prospects, you actually more than double your chances of getting a player that hits, for which the worst case scenario is, essentially, a 6 year $50M-ish deal.

You also have a 33% chance of missing on all three, PLUS a 100% chance of not getting the help for the present day team you needed.

First part true, second part unquestionably false.  It is well within the realm of possibility that Kiriloff, Lewis, or Larnach play a similar role to Arraez in 2019.

It's also certainly possible that the known commodity one trades for completely craters, like when the Reds acquired Ken Griffey Jr., and proceeded to pay him almost $100M for barely 10 WAR across 7+ seasons.  Some other really fun times teams traded unproven prospects for known commodities;

2004--Edwin Jackson for Scherzer

2003--Pierzynski for Liriano and Nathan

2012--Vernon Wells for Napoli

2012--R.A. Dickey for Syndergaard

2013--Scott Feldman for Arrieta

There's obviously many, many more examples that aren't quite as notable.  But just because someone has played to a certain level doesn't mean they will continue to.

Also, I'm not opposed to trading prospects at all; I would have been ecstatic if the Twins had sent Lewis, Larnach, AND Kiriloff, plus more to the Nats in the early stages of last season for Rendon and Scherzer; I just think "always trade prospects for established players" is a foolish mantra; if we had done that in 2015, we wouldn't have Polanco, Kepler, Garver, or Berrios on this team

Defense at third base is not even close to the top of the Twins problems.

I'm not saying it is.  I think starting pitching first and foremost.

Defense at third base is not even close to the top of the Twins problems.

Doesn't mean it can't still be addressed.  Preventing a run through defense is just as good as preventing a run through pitching.

Do they, though? Let's look at the actual stats for the last 3 years from bRef:

 

Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average/year (at 3B, based on a projection of 1200 innings):

2017: -16

2018: -6

2019: -13

 

BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average/year (at 3B, based on projection of 1200 innings):

2017: -9

2018: -15

2019: -8

 

How is that getting appreciably worse? I'm not going to say that he's good by any means at 3B, but suggesting the advanced stats are saying he's getting worse at 3B (or suggesting he's too fat to play 3B)

just isn't borne out by the evidence.

 

Yes, he's "worse" than his age 23 season (where he played only 42 games at 3B, fewer than any time in the last 3 years, and roughly half of what he actually played there in 2017 & 2019...maybe small sample size was a factor there?) and his age 22 season...where he only played 9 games at 3B and any projection makes little sense.

 

The sabermetrics are telling me that Sano is a fairly poor fielder at 3B, and has been for the past three years. They're not telling me much about whether he's getting better or worse overall; the best argument is probably that's he's basically been the same guy on defense there for the last three years. (and incidentally they also say he's awful in the OF and should never play there and the jury's out on him at 1B)

 

Back to Kris Bryant: would I be interested in dealing Larnach and a tier three lottery ticket from A-ball for Bryant? I'd definitely think about it. I'd still rather just sign Donaldson, and I'd still rather spend prospect capital on pitching, but now we're talking a deal that at least makes more sense for the Twins. But you have to be betting that Kris Bryant is going to get back to his all-star form and will like it enough here that he'd consider staying, either signing an extension early or sticking when he hits FA. He's been an elite player, but hasn't been one for a few years. He is young enough that getting a rebound right now is certainly very possible, so if the deal lines up it's worth considering. But a package of Kirilloff/Lewis + one of Graterol/Larnach/Balazovic and a kicker from the ranks of someone at the Blankenhorn level is a pretty massive overpay, IMHO.

I don't know about that. If anything it's worse because he was bad defensively at 3rd in 2017, got better in 2018 and got much much worse in 2019. Meanwhile his fielding at 1st got much worse in 2019. And yes, i do recognize he has seen limited games at 1st.  

RTOT/ year stats

2019

(-17) 1st base

(-13) 3rd base 

2018

(4) 1st base

(-6) 3rd base

2017

(11) 1st base

(-16) 3rd base

-10 and lower is considered awful  

I agree on spending the available capital on good starting pitching. I think signing Donaldson is a potential plus but not truly an area of dire need. The Twins need starting pitching BADLY - captain obvious

Trade Gordon for Bryant and then Bryant to Houston for a PTBNL.

The Twins don't want Bryant.

I'm not saying it is. I think starting pitching first and foremost.

I agree and that is where I am spending my money and prospects

I agree and that is where I am spending my money and prospects

Ideally the Twins could move Sano to DH now and find someone to take over 3rd. Donaldson could be that guy. I don't like the amount of money I think would be required to sign him, but he would fill a need. Kepler or Kirilloff at 1st.

And Cruz plays where?

Houston?

I don't get the sense that if Donaldson doesn't sign that the front office will be working hard to acquire a different 3B.   I think Donaldson's availability as a free agent has the Twins considering moving Sano to 1B to accommodate the acquisition, but beyond Donaldson aren't that involved in the 3B market.   

Uh, no, I really don’t think we should trade for a 3B...