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  • Shields For Nolasco: Would You Do It?

    Tom Froemming

    By Tom Froemming

    Twins fans have been trying to dream up ways to get rid of Ricky Nolasco and his nightmare contract basically from the moment the ink dried on his signature.That exercise has usually entailed finding a similarly terrible contract to swap. After a disappointing first season in San Diego, James Shields' name has been often floated out as a target of late.

    Image courtesy of Brad Mills, USAToday Sports: James Shields

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    My immediate reaction to a potential Nolasco for Shields trade is it would be a dream swap for the Twins.

    After looking into it further, and considering the long-term ramifications, I'm not even convinced I'd pull the trigger on a straight up swap if I was Terry Ryan.

    Yes, Shields is the superior pitcher, but his contract carries far more risk going forward. The Twins still owe Nolasco $25 million ($12 million the next two seasons followed by a $1 million buyout), but Shields still has $65 million left on his deal ($21 million over the next three years and a $2 million buyout for the fourth).

    That $40 extra million surely could be better spent elsewhere, and while getting rid of Nolasco is an enticing idea, taking on Shields may be a subtraction by addition.

    Beyond the financial commitment, there are huge question marks surrounding Shields and some reason for optimism for Nolasco. Shields had a 3.91 ERA, gave up a league-high 33 homers and actually had a higher FIP (4.45) in 2015 than the mark Nolasco has posted over his two seasons in Minnesota (4.15). He also had a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio over the same time frames (2.67 to Nolasco's 2.88).

    Nolasco has been a disaster so far in his time with the Twins, but he may have been a victim of some bad luck as well. His BABIPs the past two seasons have been .392 and .351. He is always going to give up a higher than average amount of hard contact, but I would expect his BABIP to fall more toward his career mark of .314. Shields, in case you were wondering, had a .299 BABIP last season.

    With all that said, I would certainly still expect Shields to be the superior pitcher in 2016. He also has a reputation of being a positive influence on a pitching staff and has been an absolute horse, pitching more than 200 innings nine-straight seasons. My worry is in '15 we started seeing the beginning of the end and all that work has started to pile up on his arm.

    If nothing else, Nolasco should be at least have a fresh arm after throwing just 37.1 innings last season. And if we're going to address intangibles and credit Shields for his leadership, Nolasco should also get a tip of the cap for working his way back from an ankle injury to start the final game of the season when he had very little incentive to push to return prior to the season's end.

    Also, if I'm the Twins I'm trying to move Nolasco for anything but another starting pitcher. There's no question Tyler Duffey deserves to start the '16 season in the rotation, I would also prefer to see Trevor May starting again and Jose Berrios has very little (if anything ) to prove in the minors.

    What do you think? Am I crazy? Would you trade Nolasco for Shields straight up?

    Follow Tom Froemming on Twitter: TFTwins

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    Featured Comments

    Trevor0333

    Trevor0333 81

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Honestly a 3 team deal with the Padres, Rangers, & Twins makes more sense than a straight Shields/Nolasco & prospect swap. The Rangers are shopping RP for SP. Padres need a middle infield and are retooling after their failed splash last offseason. Twins have too many SP and need RP help.

     

    Twins send Nolasco & Jorge Polanco to Padres

     

    Padres send Shields to Rangers

     

    Rangers send Shawn Tolleson to Twins & Jurickson Profar to Padres.

     

    Rangers get the SP they are looking for, forming a Darvish, Hamels, Shields top 3.

     

    Padres remake their middle infield with Profar/Polanco pairing & hopefully make a rejuvenated Nolasco an asset to trade next year.

     

    Twins free up roster & salary space moving Nolasco & a solid prospect blocked by a star level player in Dozier.

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Honestly a 3 team deal with the Padres, Rangers, & Twins makes more sense than a straight Shields/Nolasco & prospect swap. The Rangers are shopping RP for SP. Padres need a middle infield and are retooling after their failed splash last offseason. Twins have too many SP and need RP help.

     

    Twins send Nolasco & Jorge Polanco to Padres

     

    Padres send Shields to Rangers

     

    Rangers send Shawn Tolleson to Twins & Jurickson Profar to Padres.

     

    Rangers get the SP they are looking for, forming a Darvish, Hamels, Shields top 3.

     

    Padres remake their middle infield with Profar/Polanco pairing & hopefully make a rejuvenated Nolasco an asset to trade next year.

     

    Twins free up roster & salary space moving Nolasco & a solid prospect blocked by a star level player in Dozier.

     

    Not sure us chipping in Polanco and Nolasco nets us a good closer in return, especially one that is controlled three more years.

     

    The struggle with seeing these trades for some on these boards is the fact that Nolasco has negative value.  When you have a guy owed 2/25 that is worth 1 year and $3M as a free agent, you have a guy that you need to eat a ton of salary and/or give up an additional player/prospects in order to move.  I think it is questionable whether or not we could trade Nolasco and Polanco for nothing.  Is Polanco worth $20M right now?

     

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    I thought the Padres ran him through waivers last year but I could be mistaken.   He certainly has value just not 3/65.  I hesitate to guess what he would get as a FA.   Lackey got 2/32 but he was much better than Shields last year.

    The Padres did run him through waivers in August, but August waivers generally aren't a great barometer of value.  I agree it's probably less than 3/65 but still fairly close.

     

    Lackey got 2/32 but he's 3 years older, and it also cost the Cubs a draft pick.  I might peg Shields around 3/50.

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    Trevor0333

    Trevor0333 81

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Not sure us chipping in Polanco and Nolasco nets us a good closer in return, especially one that is controlled three more years.

     

    The struggle with seeing these trades for some on these boards is the fact that Nolasco has negative value.  When you have a guy owed 2/25 that is worth 1 year and $3M as a free agent, you have a guy that you need to eat a ton of salary and/or give up an additional player/prospects in order to move.  I think it is questionable whether or not we could trade Nolasco and Polanco for nothing.  Is Polanco worth $20M right now?

     

    They would surely have to throw in some $ maybe a out of options type prospect they don't really have place for. 

     

    It just seems like a pretty good baseline for all 3 teams to get value in the area they are looking for holes to fill.

     

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    sploorp

    sploorp 156

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I keep running into discussions about this and there is apparently people out there that think this is actually a good idea.

     

    Could one of those people please explain to me how this would be any different than giving Nolasco a raise and an extension?

     

    No!  No no no no no no no no no no noooooooo!!  A thousand times no!

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    I keep running into discussions about this and there is apparently people out there that think this is actually a good idea.

     

    Could one of those people please explain to me how this would be any different than giving Nolasco a raise and an extension?

     

    No!  No no no no no no no no no no noooooooo!!  A thousand times no!

     

     

    They both have 10 seasons under their belt and Shields has accumulated three times the WAR.  This meme needs to stop.

     

     

    Edited by tobi0040
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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    Could one of those people please explain to me how this would be any different than giving Nolasco a raise and an extension?

    In addition to the career numbers posted above, in his down year last year, Shields still topped 200 innings at league-average SP run prevention.

     

    Meanwhile, Nolasco failed to reach 200 innings total across his 2 Twins seasons so far, with a 70 ERA+, at ~25% below league-average SP run prevention.  He's barely pitched at all coming off of midseason surgery and is only a year younger than Shields.

     

    Shields ain't Nolasco.

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    The only Twins argument against the Nolasco-Shields trade is, we don't need another starter.  I can understand that, although I think there is enough uncertainty with our other starters and in our bullpen (and potentially beneficial trade possibilities with our other starters) that I would respectfully disagree.

     

    The main Twins argument for a Nolasco-Shields swap is that it is looking increasingly likely we will get nothing for the remaining $25 mil on Nolasco's contract.  Having the opportunity to put it toward an asset like Shields at a discount is better than nothing, even if that asset is not at our position of maximum need.

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    alarp33

    alarp33 2,765

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    The only Twins argument against the Nolasco-Shields trade is, we don't need another starter.  I can understand that, although I think there is enough uncertainty with our other starters and in our bullpen (and potentially beneficial trade possibilities with our other starters) that I would respectfully disagree.

     

    The main Twins argument for a Nolasco-Shields swap is that it is looking increasingly likely we will get nothing for the remaining $25 mil on Nolasco's contract.  Having the opportunity to put it toward an asset like Shields at a discount is better than nothing, even if that asset is not at our position of maximum need.

     

    The only argument against is that we don't need another starter?  How about the fact that Shields is going to make nearly as much in 2016 as they owe Nolasco for 2016+2017, and had a FIP of 4.45 last year, and gave up 33 home runs in a pitchers ball park?

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    The only argument against is that we don't need another starter?  How about the fact that Shields is going to make nearly as much in 2016 as they owe Nolasco for 2016+2017, and had a FIP of 4.45 last year, and gave up 33 home runs in a pitchers ball park?

     

    Steamer has Shields with a 3.0 WAR and Nolasco at 1.1.

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    alarp33

    alarp33 2,765

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Steamer has Shields with a 3.0 WAR and Nolasco at 1.1.

     

    I never said Nolasco was going to be better than Shields in 2016.  I will say, I'd rather them just eat the remaining 2 years on the Nolasco contract than bring in Shields for $65 million over 3 years  (Or $21 million for one year, since he has an opt out if he pitches well in 2016)

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I never said Nolasco was going to be better than Shields in 2016. I will say, I'd rather them just eat the remaining 2 years on the Nolasco contract than bring in Shields for $65 million over 3 years (Or $21 million for one year, since he has an opt out if he pitches well in 2016)

    if you could trade Nolasco for Shields it wouldn't be $65 m for Shields.
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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    if you could trade Nolasco for Shields it wouldn't be $65 m for Shields.

    Exactly.  It could effectively be getting Shields for 3/40 as a consolation prize for releasing Nolasco.  Shields and his 2015 season are not perfect, but he's easily still an attractive asset at 3/40 which is why there is no way in heck that San Diego would agree to this deal, there are far better ways to acquire reclamation projects (and probably far better reclamation projects to target than Nolasco).

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    alarp33

    alarp33 2,765

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    if you could trade Nolasco for Shields it wouldn't be $65 m for Shields.

     

    You think that San Diego would make a 1 for 1 swap?  It'd still be $21 million for a 36 year old Shields (w/ a $2 million buyout) in 2018

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted (edited)

     

    You think that San Diego would make a 1 for 1 swap?  It'd still be $21 million for a 36 year old Shields (w/ a $2 million buyout) in 2018

    I don't think it's likely, but that's the hypothetical posed by this thread.

     

    Simply put: if you release Nolasco, you get an open roster spot.  If you make this hypothetical trade instead, you get Shields on effectively a 3/40 contract with a 4th year $14 mil option ($16 mil minus a $2 mil buyout I already included in the 3/40).  I don't think you have to be particularly high on Shields to find the latter preferable to the former.

     

    (And if Shields opts out after 1 year, you actually save $4 mil from the trade, plus get a season of presumably plus pitching from Shields.)

     

    Of course, I agree that a straight-up trade like this is highly unlikely, which is all the more evidence this hypothetical favors the Twins greatly.

    Edited by spycake
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