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  • Santiago Starting To Turn Heads


    Cody Christie

    As Nick wrote earlier in the week, Ervin Santana has been a legitimate threat in the Twins rotation. Santana is off to a tremendous start to the season and it's easy to see why the Twins decided to hang on to the veteran right-handed hurler.

    What might be more of a surprise than Santana's start are the outings put together by Hector Santiago. For those who have forgotten, Santiago and Alan Busenitz were the two players acquired from the Angels last season in exchange for Alex Meyer and Ricky Nolasco.

    Santiago, the former 30th round pick by the White Sox, could be on the cusp of a breakout season.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

    Twins Video

    Another All-Star First Half

    Santiago has shown flashes of this type of pitching in the past. During the 2015 campaign, he got the season off to a great start and was named an American League All-Star. In the season's first half, he posted a 2.33 ERA with a 98 to 33 strikeout to walk ratio. In those 18 games, batters hit .213/.281/.356 against him.

    Following his All-Star first half, things fell apart in the second half of the season. His ERA rose to 5.47 and his WHIP rose from 1.10 to 1.49. Batters OPS also rose by over 200 points. Minnesota is seeing glimpses of Santiago's all-star abilities but there's no evidence of him being able to sustain this level for an entire season.

    What's Up, Pitches?

    Opponents have struggled this season with making consistent contact against Santiago's sinker. For his career, batters have hit .217 against him when he throws this pitch. So far this season, opponents have been limited to a .135 average with two extra-base hits. His velocity has dipped a little with this pitch but he seems to be using it more effectively.

    He has yet to surrender an extra-base hit with his secondary pitches but he throws these less than 40% of the time. When throwing his change-up, batters have been limited to a .200 average which is almost 60 points lower than his career mark. His cut fastball has yielded a .750 opponent's batting average, the highest of any pitch he throws.

    The Jason Castro Factor

    During the entire off-season, Twins fans heard rave reviews about Jason Castro and his ability to coax umpires into calling strikes. This might not have been more evident than on Sunday afternoon when "Castro had the best day of any backstop at getting his pitchers extra strikes."

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    For seven innings on Sunday, Santiago was the beneficiary of Castro's catching abilities. Fangraphs showed multiple pitches from Santiago that ended up being called strikes. Castro is clearly factoring into the Twins early season pitching success.

    Hector%2BSantiago%2B%25C2%25BB%2BHeatmaps%2B%25C2%25BB%2BcStrike%2525%2B_%2BFanGraphs%2BBaseball.JPG

    It's been a small sample size and there is plenty of season still ahead. Santiago needs to prove that he can sustain these numbers over the course of an entire season. He's shown flashes of this type of pitching in the past but the league will adjust. Can he make the types of changes necessary to sustain this success?

    Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    How so? offensively, he is putting up about 2 WAR as a DH.....that's quite high, actually. He put up over 1 WAR even being historically bad on D last year, something I doubt he could repeat. But as a DH, he's actually above average.

    That was my point Mike.  He has negative value in the field, whether that is as much as last season or not he is a poor fielder.  I am actually liking him at the DH position. Keep the bat in the lineup and the glove off the field.  Of course that raises issues about who the 4th OF would be but that is a different conversation.

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    That was my point Mike.  He has negative value in the field, whether that is as much as last season or not he is a poor fielder.  I am actually liking him at the DH position. Keep the bat in the lineup and the glove off the field.  Of course that raises issues about who the 4th OF would be but that is a different conversation.

    One could also argue the following:

     

    1. Grossman's bat is slightly more valuable in LF than DH

    2. The Twins have three centerfielders already on the roster

    3. Grossman crushes LHP

    4. All of those centerfielders have questionable, bad, or terrible bats against LHP

     

    If you play Grossman in a corner spot once a week against a lefty, is the 200 OPS points you gain with his bat offset by his decreased defensive ability?

     

    I honestly don't know the answer to that question but I suspect it's not clearcut either way... and the offensive flexibility it affords the Twins to replace Santana with Vargas is pretty hard to resist.

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    I wouldn't rule it out entirely, no.

     

    And you're talking about a .750-.770 OPS and I'm talking about an .800 OPS. That's about 7-8 hits scattered over the course of a season, or about one extra hit every 20 games.

     

    Is that truly unreasonable?

     

    The fact is that neither you nor I have any idea where Grossman will land when it comes to BABIP because he doesn't have the track record one way or the other.

    You did say .800+ and the .750-.770 number was only for BAPIP drop. I said I expect him around .750. In addition his SLG is still higher than expected. And he is getting rested a lot vs RHP.

    And don't discount what a 50 points of OPS is. It is the difference between a very good to great player and a good one.

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    You did say .800+ and the .750-.770 number was only for BAPIP drop. I said I expect him around .750. In addition his SLG is still higher than expected. And he is getting rested a lot vs RHP.

    And don't discount what a 50 points of OPS is. It is the difference between a very good to great player and a good one.

    Oh, not discounting it at all. My initial expectation for Grossman going into the season was, like you, around a .750 OPS.

     

    All I'm saying is that I'm beginning to question that expectation. I'm still not sold on Grossman but I'm opening up to the idea that he's a lot better than I expected him to be.

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    One could also argue the following:

     

    1. Grossman's bat is slightly more valuable in LF than DH

    2. The Twins have three centerfielders already on the roster

    3. Grossman crushes LHP

    4. All of those centerfielders have questionable, bad, or terrible bats against LHP

     

    If you play Grossman in a corner spot once a week against a lefty, is the 200 OPS points you gain with his bat offset by his decreased defensive ability?

     

    I honestly don't know the answer to that question but I suspect it's not clearcut either way... and the offensive flexibility it affords the Twins to replace Santana with Vargas is pretty hard to resist.

    I would argue the solution to that problem is a better 4th OF.  Then you can keep Grossman's .800 OPS bat in the lineup and not have a large drop in the OF defense.  Given the Twins flyball prone pitching this seems preferable to me.  

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    I would argue the solution to that problem is a better 4th OF.  Then you can keep Grossman's .800 OPS bat in the lineup and not have a large drop in the OF defense.  Given the Twins flyball prone pitching this seems preferable to me.  

    But that doesn't fix the Mauer problem. Even when Joe is "rolling", he only tops out as an .800 OPS guy at this point in his career. Adding a quasi-platoon bat to spell both Mauer and Grossman from their daily roles seems like a good way to increase offensive capabilities overall.

     

    The only reason I'd even consider this is because the Twins are in a rather unique situation. They have an elite guy in center and two guys at the corners who can hold their own in center.

     

    I believe this opportunity affords the Twins a luxury few other teams enjoy: the ability to carry a fourth outfielder who can hit.

     

    Because you're not going to get a fourth outfielder who can hit and field. Those guys are more commonly referred to as "starting outfielders".

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    I believe every business in America has an annual budget, so what's your point?

     

    Baseball teams don't carry money over year to year, they operate on an annual basis, not carrying over unspent "capital" to future years like some other businesses do. So, if htey don't spend it this year, they just pocket it. That's what teams have communicated quite broadly over the last few years on many websites and interviews. 

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    Baseball teams don't carry money over year to year, they operate on an annual basis, not carrying over unspent "capital" to future years like some other businesses do. So, if htey don't spend it this year, they just pocket it. That's what teams have communicated quite broadly over the last few years on many websites and interviews. 

    You are overgeneralizing. Neither you, nor I know what every baseball team does, or can do. Once again, there is a new sheriff in town.

    Edited by howieramone2
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    You are overgeneralizing. Neither you, nor I know what every baseball teams does, or can do. Once again, there is a new sheriff in town.

     

    Have you ever read anything other than this, on FG, ESPN, CBS, here, or anywhere? I haven't. And, as I pointed out, that's what they communicate, and hence what we know. We can't really know anything else other than what they say, and what they do. 

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    You are overgeneralizing. Neither you, nor I know what every baseball team does, or can do. Once again, there is a new sheriff in town.

    Not really. The new sheriff decides how the money is spent. Pohlad decides how much is spent each year.

    And how exactly did this start? About the 1M difference between what the Nolasco is being paid (including the part the Twins pay) and what Santiago is being paid?

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    Not really. The new sheriff decides how the money is spent. Pohlad decides how much is spent each year.

    And how exactly did this start? About the 1M difference between what the Nolasco is being paid (including the part the Twins pay) and what Santiago is being paid?

    The old sheriff said on many occasions, every time he approached ownership about additional funds it was approved. No reason to believe the new sheriff is operating under different constrains. The point is a bad contract was eliminated, and we have plenty of money to spend. 

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    The old sheriff said on many occasions, every time he approached ownership about additional funds it was approved. No reason to believe the new sheriff is operating under different constrains. The point is a bad contract was eliminated, and we have plenty of money to spend. 

    But the money was spent on Santiago (+/- 1M). The Twins might have plenty of money to spend but that has nothing to do with Nolasco other than they are getting something useful out of Santiago.

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