Report: Twins Nearing Multi-Year Deal with Michael Pineda

I believe most of the angst hanging over our heads remains because of two decades of early playoff exits. So this year in the playoffs we had Odorizzi, Berrios and ............

If Pineda hadn't been suspended for the use of a diaretic, that playoff rotation looks a lot better especially when Pineda's numbers had been the best of the 3 in the months leading up to the suspension. Just having those three in October would be an upgrade.

So, yes, I'm glad he's back and just having these 3 for the entire season with the rookies I think is also an upgrade over last years rotation after subtracting Perez (who actually was good the first month plus) and Gibson who's health got in the way all year.

Now lets sign one of the top 4 remaining and REALLY improve the rotation over last year.

 

Is it possible that combination could be better than anyone out there on the free agent market...other than Cole and Strasburg?

NO. 

He had a nice run, but it's also worth noting his competition in those 14 starts -- Pineda faced only 2 top-10 offenses (by run scoring) in those 14 starts, vs 8 bottom-10 offenses.

 

You'd also want to factor in his conservative pitch counts and his time off (missed a start right before that run, 1 more for the all-star break, and 2 more in August), and the fact that his season got to end at 146 innings -- so he really didn't face the workload challenge of, say, Wheeler, etc.

 

Now, that and the suspension and his track record is why Pineda is getting 2/20 while others are looking at much more, and Pineda can absolutely be useful at that price -- but I'd caution against thinking too much that Pineda can help the top of the rotation rather than simply reinforce the bottom.

Don't forget to factor in he probably had to pee in the worst way.

I think two more proven starters should be the goal. The Twins' starting rotation was extraordinarily healthy last year--Pineda had two respites and Odorizzi and Gibson each had a couple weeks off--it shouldn't be expected that whoever is in the rotation in April will get 30 starts. Certainly, Pineda will be out until mid-May so having four other proven guys should be the floor. i expect some of the guys who had limited opportunities last year to get quite a bit of work as starters. It may be that whoever we view as the starting rotation won't all be healthy at once. I consider Keuchel an undervalued asset. I think there is a chance that Bumgarner could become dominant again. Gausman intrigues me. 

 

Go get two more guys for the rotation and make a sneaky good addition to the position players (I have been beating the drum for Travis Shaw) and get a good backup catcher and I'll be happy.      

I expect one significant SP yet and 1 SP project, similar to Perez last year who will compete for the 5th spot with the rookies.

Sigh of relief. Of course two of Bumgarner, Gausman, Ryu and Keuchel (Stausberg) would take me from a sense of relief to truly impressed. I really want to see Pineda show up in top shape. No excuse not to. A lighter Pineda could be healthier than ever allowing him to get closer to his MASSIVE potential. An interesting possibility to make lemonade out of his suspension is how this could be perfect for Graterol's development. Let him work the early season as a starter then slide to the pen to ease his innings the rest of the way. Perfect. For sure he can't have a spring like Romero for this to work.

Am I the only one who read the "pending a physical" line in the OP, then scrolled down to see that photo choice?

Berrios...Odorizzi...Pineda...Dobnak.. Littel...

Rotation complete

One more bullpen arm and the pitching staff is set for 2020.

Now middle infield....

Littel isn't going back to starting. They moved him to RP in AAA for a reason -- and it immediately had better results.

Literally that's not true. There was at least one poster recently telling me that Pineda is as good or better than Wheeler. And I think that opinion is related to an over-reliance on small sample stats like the ones I quoted. So I just wanted to provide a note of caution.

 

I think this is a fine deal too, assuming they still go out and acquire a top starter (and probably an additional guy/project).

Yep.  That's me.   If you didn't respond I was going to.     I would like to have Wheeler as I have stated but don't know why he is considered so highly.   His innings are his big plus but his stats in 2019 were bolstered by his 2nd half which also included deep game shutouts against weak White Sox Miami and Cincinnatti much like you pointed out for Pineda.    In the month before his suspension my level of confidence in getting a good 5 or 6 innings was Odorizzi, Pineda and Berrios in that order.   Other people are higher on Berrios than I am.     Wheeler would be in that mix but not above it.    I think Pineda is a better than average pitcher which is more than I expected in his first post surgery year.    If he ends up our #5 that would be awesome.   I don't know why a better than average starter would be widely considered back of rotation.   I never said he was a top of the rotation guy.  I am ok with a staff full of good pitchers even if it lacks a great one.   Good pitchers throw shutouts sometimes too.  I could be way off base.    its baseball.   Experts are right half the time.   Us amateurs are wrong half the time.

With my advancing age, I propose a 3rd inning stretch.....

While returning from my 2nd inning stretch...

  In any other year, if the Twins had signed 2 of the top 8 FA starting pitchers, fans would be celebrating.  But b/c they both pitched for the Twins last year, we get "See, same old Twins".  Minnesota sports fans are a funny lot.

I'm getting a different vibe, one of general positivity about both moves, and more of a hopeful vibe from most about the chances we'll see at least one more exciting addition. Personally, for no good reason, I want Ryu and Alex Wood to sign with the Twins. Well, Strasburg and MadBum really...

Littel isn't going back to starting. They moved him to RP in AAA for a reason -- and it immediately had better results.

Agree that Littell isn't going back to starting.  But he might be one heck of an opener.

And along the lines of what birdwatcher was talking about above, wouldn't be surprised if that one last deal is something similar to the Odorizzi trade from two years ago.  Some fairly good pitcher in a trade for a mid-teens to 20 something prospect.  Somebody we won't get excited about, yet, will go out and pitch very well every 5th day.

I believe the only way the Twins are going to get that true ACE will be from their minor league system.  Do they have him down on the farm right now?  Don't know.  Maybe Graterol or Balazovic or Oder or whomever is that three or four years from now.  In the meantime, we have to pray that Berrios finally takes that last step and becomes as close to ACE as we can expect the next few years. 

My guess is we sign one SP towards the top of the menu. Bring in 2 reclamation projects, up and comers etc., to fight it out for the 5th spot and use our rookies to fill the Pineda void.

I'd pump the brakes on Graterol, y'all. He's talented, but there's no way he's ready for a full season MLB starter workload, even by modern standards. And he hasn't yet demonstrated an ability to stay healthy for a long stretch either. No way we can count on him filling a spot out of spring training.

 

Dobnak has a better chance, but even then, I'd probably prefer not to plan on him holding down a spot for any longer than Pineda's suspension.

Good point. I want two more starters from the outside. Dobnak may be the real deal, let's hope so, and he won't make me nervous being plugged in for Pineda to start the year, or as the first injury replacement. They'll need most of the starters at AAA at some point during the season.

I think they have the makings of a decent, but not great 6-10 in AAA with Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Poppen, and Graterol, probably in that order at present. The AA group looks decent too: Duran, Jax, Colina, Wells, Balazovic, Ober, Sands, and Enlow.

I want them to make these prospects feel that life is unfair. Temporarily.  

Very happy that Odorizzi and Pineda are coming back. Pineda was pitching so well during the middle of the season last year. I really enjoyed watching him pour strikes in on the corners. The Twins get a little discount I think by being loyal to him through his mistake.

Pineda was a very good pitcher from July  until his suspension.  Value wise, if he can pitch near that level, you cannot find anyone better than that on the market, especially at 10 million year.  He could easily slot anywhere as  #2 to #4 pitcher.      Good value overall. 

There are 2 answers available. It just depends If you believe the budget target for 2020 is $130M or $140M. So they entered FA with $61-$71M to spend.

Personally, I believe they will go up to $140M if the right moves make sense. J mean, they were at $130M coming off the unexpected wild card 2yrs ago. Why wouldn't they be willing to bump to $140 coming off 101 wins and a division championship. Just my opinion.

So $43M available after Odorizzi and Pineda.

I thought 140M or perhaps a little more is reasonable given the increase in revenue last year. The roster below is missing a SP, a replacement for Cron and 2 RPs. I show 98.5M.. Bumgarner, 2 RPs and a replacement for Cron fit within that 140-145M plan. Maybe even Strasburg. I just don't see strasburg wanting to come here.

I'm fine with this move as well, especially because they got the 2nd year; I didn't want Pineda back on a 1-year make-good when he was going to miss the first quarter. The other good thing is the early months usually don't require a 5th starter as often so it should be easier to endure the suspension than it was last fall.

but I still want Bumgarner or Ryu (or Cole or Strasburg, of course) to slot in around the top. And I wouldn't mind making a run at someone like Gausman as a) insurance against Thorpe/Graterol/Littell/whomever not being ready to lock down a rotation spot, because he's also a guy who could shift to the bullpen and be an asset.

Again: so far we're keeping the floor from sinking. That's a really good thing. Pineda's a talented pitcher and this is a good 2-year price. 

It's fair to be concerned about not getting a more impactful pitcher, but 4 of the top 5 are still on the market and the Twins already brought back arguably #6. If the Twins can land Bumgarner, I'm feeling pretty good about how the rotation is lining up, and definitely better than a year ago at this time.

I'm also baffled by people in this thread being down on Berrios. He may not be contending for a Cy, but he's a damn good pitcher.

Well someone already beat me to the diet comment...I knew the Twins were gonna resign him. Hopefully Big Mike will come into training camp looking great, has been hitting the gym every day and he said he Wants to be here, so good for him.

Somehow I feel the Twins will be back with the same pitching staff....can we say groundhogs year?

I feel like people forget that Big Mike was a badass prior to TJ and last year was his first year back. He'll be 31 and fully healed this year. In the three years with the Yankees prior to his TJ surgery, his line was better than Wheeler's career line:

Mike:      9.5 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 1.4 hr/9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.24 xFIP.

Wheeler:  8.72       3.24       .9                     3.71               3.91

The last time Bumgarner had a lower FIP or xFIP was in 2016.

Ryu has had better numbers, but is going to be 33. Last year he pitched 182 innings, but he's only pitched more than 82 innings in 4 of the last 7 years, and 2 of those 4 were in 2013 and 2014.

I think any of our current three starters has the ability to be an ace on any given day, and should be expected to pitch no worse than a #3 starter every time.

The Pineda signing is great and arguably the best deal of any starters signed so far, from the team's prospective. But reports are out that the Yankees are going to make Cole a priority. If that happens, this off-season is a total failure even if they sign Bumgarner.  We'll have the exact same problem we had last season, good starting pitching depth, but our top two or three starters will all the worse that their counterparts in a playoff series.  The rotations for AL contenders next year are going to be stacked at the top and the Twins just won't be competitive.  Which playoff contenders would have a worse 1-3 than us?

I don't understand your comment SmellEm.

If the Yankees sign Cole the Twins off-season will be a complete failure.  How is something the Twins have zero way of controlling affect what they are doing over the next three months?  Cole is a free agent.  As a free agent he is free to sign with whomever he chooses.  All indications are that he prefers to go home to southern California.  Yes, the Yankees may throw so much money at him that he foregoes his preference.  What can the Twins do about this?  As I see there is nothing they can do as he wouldn't come here even should the Twins exceed whatever the Yankees may, or may not, throw his way. I don't understand how whatever Cole does means the Twins get an F for their offseason moves...whatever they are.

The Twins sign one more hopefully.   At Spring Training Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol et.al. compete for the #4 and #5.   In Mid-May, when Big Mike returns, the Twins sort out who goes to bullpen, Rochester, the injured list or whatever.