Report: Darvish Decision Expected This Week, Twins In Consideration

I think the impression was that the new Twins FO would make for a change in the manner in which high end FA were pursued. The Twins have always proclaimed themselves in on the newest shiny object. The Twins were always "interested", be it FA, trade possibilities, or Cubans. But so far in the SS alloted to the new FO the process is eerily familiar. While Darvish has yet to announce, it seems very much like the ever familiar "gosh, we were right into until the end, we thought we had a very good chance". This is likely the reason skepticism abounds, and optimism is bleak as regards any significant action on the pitching front. Whether one thinks Darvish is the answer or not, the fact of the matter is the Twins are never going to significantly change their position on top flight FA's. While I do believe there is a chance for the new FO to improve the roster by some better evaluation of talent, and hopefully improvise MiLB functions, I have no hope for big time acquisitions or trades. In those two instances the new FO is just like the old one, simply with more hair.

According to Jeff Passan, neither Darvish nor most of the other free agents still available are anywhere close to signing with anyone, and there is a lot of tension and frustration, if not anger, among the players about the way this offseason has gone. Definitely give this a read:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-players-teams-digging-protracted-standoff-despite-lorenzo-cains-80-million-deal-060605804.html

LOL tension, frustration if not anger. 

OMG, said free agent mlb player is not going to get an extra 2 or 3 million dollars a year this season if they sign a contract.  How on earth can we go on? ohhhh the world is coming to and end for your favorite major league stars.....cry me a river of alligator tears while the rest of us that live in the real world throw pennies at each other.

Darvish had the 12th highest K/9 last year and the 13th highest swstr% last year. It sounds like he is exactly what you want.

The woba is of greater concern

So you side with the billionaire owners? Not me

Not at all.  i just think it's hilarious to see multi-millionaires whine about not getting dramatic salary increases this year.

Not at all. i just think it's hilarious to see multi-millionaires whine about not getting dramatic salary increases this year.

It reminds me when 1%er politicians tell us that $1,000 is crumbs and that it makes no difference to us if we get it or not. Meanwhile, they have $1K dinners and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on in flight alcohol on tax payer dimes

It reminds me when 1%er politicians tell us that $1,000 is crumbs and that it makes no difference to us if we get it or not. Meanwhile, they have $1K dinners and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on in flight alcohol on tax payer dimes

Exactly.  

I get not being excited about FAs... they come with risk. Everyone does. I'm more concerned though about stats like this.

 

For one, just about every pitcher will see their metrics regress when framed in this way. I'm not surprised at all that his batting average against went up from pitches 51-100. The pitchers that see this number drop are the outliers, and I'd bet that over the course of a season that you won't find any pitchers who will see their numbers improve or remain the same... Now if ESPN can show some stat that demonstrates that Darvish is significantly worse in this capacity than his peers, I'd be interested in that.

 

Second, Darvish has a career K/9 of just over 11 batters. He probably won't do that going forward, but he should still be very good in that area. That's roughly 1.2 batters per inning that never put the ball in play. That means he's lights out in his first 50 pitches and that those pitches likely cover more than 3 innings. It also means that he afford a higher BABIP in the second half of a game. I realize the Ks don't come consistently at a 1 per inning clip, but you have to accept that part of the reason he's considered an ace is because of the number of batters that never put the ball in play. In the all or nothing outcomes that MLB tends to be right now, you need this guy.

k/9 is another misleading stat- how many times does he strike out 9.  It is like the other data.  Great start, poor finish.  We can live with that but not for a pitcher like this at this age if we are going for 5 - 6 years.  

Agreed, it is hard to be too sympathetic to the players, but on the other hand the owners have plenty of money and plenty of profits from baseball as well. Plus, even if we don't think it is justified, if the players refuse to sign going into April (which is apparently a possibility) it is going to be a loss for the fans.

I'll just stop watching.  My cable bill is already high enough because of them (League, owners and players collectively) and their tv rights.  

I disagree with your argument because it’s not relative in context to his peers. He never goes 9 innings so k9 isn’t relevant. No one goes 9 innings, it’s a rate. His k9 is in the top 12 for all starting pitchers. That’s relative to other alternatives who only one guy on that same plane is available and he’s going to go for similar money. If the alternative is wait for next year, it’s always wait for next year. We’ve heard that for 20 years. Next year is less certain than right now. There are no guarantees.

I give you a lot of credit for your conviction and well written arguments.

Thank you for complimenting my arguments, although they cannot be that good if I can not convince you.  I would love to see a performance based pay that goes up and down - when is the last time that happened?

... it's worse than the 'Dozier to the Dodgers - book it!' threads from last year.

 

Let's get on with it!

It was really only one colossal thread, and it was AWESOME! None of the Darvish threads will hold a candle to that one until they hit as least 500 posts.

Price is definitely coming down... as his agent is pulling out both the classic desperate leaks...

"Got a offer from another team!"

"Going to make a decision by the end of the week!"

With a new splash of 

"Are we sure there is no collusion going on?"

Translation to all of the above: "Holy @#$%, this is NOT the market we anticipated"

Now that the price has come down, don't get too cute Twins....there will not be another opportunity when the Big Boys wake up for next years FA ready to EAT. 

Let Darvish go to the Cubs or even the Yanks. I'd rather have Arrieta or (mostly) Archer (though we would have to trade for him).

heavily incentive based contracts are unusual for top end players. The MLBPA is very powerful and the owners bring in tons of tv money. The players association and players agents know it and do a very good job of taking advantage.

I for one am very thankful that only 10-15% of my income is incentive based. I choose a stable salary at the loss of top end opportunity.

My brother in law is in sales and his rate is flipped, 10-15% salary. He has years where he makes twice what I do. He also has years where he makes less than half. I couldn’t handle that kind of uncertainty.

I understand what you are saying.  As a self employed person I have a lot of uncertainty, but at the level of these contracts if have is base and half is incentive - I think they can survive.

It's not a misleading stat at all. It gives you a really good approximation for how many batters do not put a ball in play. The guy with the lower K/9 puts more balls in play and leaves more up to chance and the hitter's skill.

I would prefer to see how a pitchers K rate varies from inning to inning.  Does it go up when the sluggers like Sano flail away.  Is it really high in 1 or 2 innings which would make the pitcher more of a candidate for relief appearances.  Does it go away in the fifth and sixth?