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  • Red Sox 4, Twins 1: Sale Outduels Berrios


    Tom Froemming

    Jose Berrios pitched much better than the box score suggests, as he went blow-for-blow with Chris Sale before the Twins bullpen allowed a couple of inherited runners to score. A few questionable managerial decisions did not aid the Twins in their comeback attempt.

    Image courtesy of Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays (via Fangraphs)

    WinEx626.png

    TopPlays626.png

    In the early goings it looked like we might be seeing Berrios’ first clunker this season. In the first inning, he gave up two runs on four hits, one of them a homer, and a walk. It could have been much worse, but a double play in the middle of it all softened the damage.

    Berrios recovered, retiring 13 of the next 14 batters he faced. Chris Gimenez slugged a solo homer in the third inning, tying his career high with five on the season. He cleared the Green Monster, check it out:

    https://twitter.com/TheRenderMLB/status/879493534281342976

    Berrios had another laborious inning in the sixth, but was sent back out with 93 pitches under his belt. Two of the first three batters of the seventh inning singled, and Paul Molitor brought in Matt Belisle.

    Belisle gave up an RBI single to Dustin Pedroia and ended up intentionally walking Xander Bogaerts after the runners advanced on a Gimenez passed ball. Buddy Boshers came in to face lefty Mitch Moreland, who hit a sacrifice fly. That closed the book on Berrios, giving him a disappointing four earned runs over 6.1 innings. He struck out seven.

    Sale was brilliant, striking out nine batters over 6.1 innings, and the Boston pen combined for 2.2 perfect innings.

    Molitor made several moves that could be second-guessed. I think Aaron Gleeman summed them up about as well as you could in 140 characters or less:

    https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/879513251913940992

    Trailing by a run in the top of the seventh, Robbie Grossman hit a leadoff single, which was followed by a walk to Kennys Vargas (that’s where you see the big dip on the win expectancy graph). Jorge Polanco was asked to bunt, but he ended up striking out.

    With Gimenez coming to the plate, Sale was pulled. Heath Hembree came in and induced an inning-ending double play to extinguish the threat.

    On a positive note, Miguel Sano played third base for the first time in almost a week and made this web gem (do you still call it a web gem if the guy didn't use his glove?):

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/879512259470409729

    Postgame With Molitor

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/879529623050108929

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

    Pen626.png

    *Dillion Gee was optioned to Rochester after the game to make room for Hector Santiago, who will be activated from the DL to start tomorrow.

    Tuesday

    Twins (Hector Santiago, 5.36 ERA) at Boston (Drew Pomeranz, 4.07 ERA), 6:10 pm CT

    Pomeranz has some eyebrow-raising reverse platoon splits this season. Left-handed batters have a .997 OPS off him while he’s held righties to a .687 OPS. He also hasn’t been as good at home, registering a 4.89 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at Fenway Park. Santiago’s last start was June 6, though he threw three no-hit innings Wednesday in a rehab start. He’ll likely be on a conservative pitch count. Hector has been very good over his last five starts against Boston, posting a 1.88 ERA.

    AL Central Standings

    Cleveland 40-35

    Twins 39-35 (-0.5)

    Kansas City 37-37 (-2)

    Detroit 33-42 (-6.5)

    Chicago 32-42 (-7)

    Just a heads up so nobody worries about me, I'll be off the grid for the next couple days and won't be able to provide recaps for Tuesday or Wednesday night's games. As always, thanks for reading!

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    Alas, not often you have a top 5 (1 by some measures) prospect and the best rhp prospect laying around.

    And they've still got a couple of top 50 prospects left even after the 3 big trades they've made in recent years.

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    One stat that jumped out to me (from my CF bleacher seat....oh good for me) was Rosario going 0-3 with 3 k's.  Granted, he made 3 great catches in LF.  But I have to wonder if the Twins might be better served with Zach Granite out there?

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    One stat that jumped out to me (from my CF bleacher seat....oh good for me) was Rosario going 0-3 with 3 k's.  Granted, he made 3 great catches in LF.  But I have to wonder if the Twins might be better served with Zach Granite out there?

    Rosario has a .962 OPS over the last 28 days. I think he deserves a lot more time.

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    Which may have happened even if Giminez took the AB in that situation.  They may have walked Mauer to get to Rosario and Buxton even with runners on 1st and 2nd.  We don't know how it would have played out, but I would rather be the aggressor than the reacting party.  Force the opponent to make decisions.

     

    No way they walk Mauer with runners on 1st and 2nd. Mauer is not Trout or someone who that would make sense - you don't move someone up where a wild pitch scores them and you don't put the go ahead run in scoring position. Let Polanco hit with the 2-0 and then you can bring in Mauer. Sacrificing rarely makes sense - outs are at a premium late in a game.

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    Rosario has a .962 OPS over the last 28 days. I think he deserves a lot more time.

     

    And Zach Granite's AAA performance in no way forces the Twins hands. He still profiles as a nice 4th OF (but perhaps not for the twins since he is LH) and a below-average corner OF.

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    No way they walk Mauer with runners on 1st and 2nd. Mauer is not Trout or someone who that would make sense - you don't move someone up where a wild pitch scores them and you don't put the go ahead run in scoring position. Let Polanco hit with the 2-0 and then you can bring in Mauer. Sacrificing rarely makes sense - outs are at a premium late in a game.

     

    Sacrificing only makes sense in the late innings, because a run or two matters when there aren't many ABs left. IMO, that was one situation (before the AB started) where it made decent sense to me.

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    Jumping on the Whine Line:  So, Buxton is just a .200 hitter with speed and great defense, eh?  A poor man's Jerrod Dyson if the Twins are lucky.  Too bad.

     

    As for Berrios, he's turned out to be a gem.  Thankful the Twins have finally hit the jackpot on one of those prospects! 

     

    Sano's striking out like nobody's business lately.  Remember that game a month ago when he had 5 singles?  I'd love to see him stop trying to crush the ball and get back to basics.

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    Sacrificing only makes sense in the late innings, because a run or two matters when there aren't many ABs left. IMO, that was one situation (before the AB started) where it made decent sense to me.

     

    I think more thought has to go into it. You have a big strikeout pitcher on the mound in Sale so if the goal is to get a guy to third, you find yourself with Sale pitching to two guys (buxton and Rosario) who are not particularly tough to strike out. 

     

    To me, that's the argument against it even in that situation (you're right that close game with runners on is the place that makes sense). You have to have someone coming up who puts the ball in play (they're going to walk Mauer, even with L on L) and that just isn't Buxton or Rosario.

     

    And you have to not have Matt Belisle next in from the pen.

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