What Would a Twins Rebuild Look Like?

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Missing Julien and Martin. Both make their debuts this year. Gallo was waste for the strategy that will ultimately be embraced come mid-late June.

August Lineup (some IL overlap)

IF (6) Lee, Lewis, Julien, Arraez, Miranda, Farmer (need one adult)

OF (6) Buxton, Gordon, Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff, Martin

C (2) Vasquez, Jeffers

SP (5) Ryan, Ober, Winder, SWR, one of Mahle, Gray, Maeda (Varland and Balazovic will get plenty of starts too)

RP (8) Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, FA to be signed still this off-season (others will see innings too)

The last two months of ‘23 may be a dumpster fire, but a necessary one. We make the investment to see who are keepers and who is not. For ‘24-25 only three players off this list are making somewhat serious money (Buxton, one SP, and Arraez). Retool next off-season with 3-4 FAs. Fire Falvey, Levine, and Rocco.

BTW, any one but me wish we had signed Bassitt and Anderson to three year deals to bolster our rotation for ‘23-25 instead of goofing off with CC and Gallo?  We’d have at least two solid inning eating vets to go with Ryan plus the two winners of the Winder, Ober, Varland, SWR battle. We could even extended our choice of Gray, Mahle and Maeda. 

 

Great comment but uhhhhh, who said Lee will be ready this year?

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Draft picks in baseball don’t translate like football picks. Can’t understand the inflated view of draft picks in these discussions!

We should try to get to the post season. What is the point of a “rebuild” other than listing younger ages on the roster? Seriously, what’s the point. Young guys don’t magically become solid players because they get a year or two under their belt in the Show! We don’t save money one year to spend more the next - no point.

We have a decent club now. Not great. Certainly no chance to dominate!! If we get a reliever that will perform (Fulmer - Hand - Britton) & we sign Eovaldi & move Maeda to Pen we have the best staff in our Division top to bottom.

Shift removed should disproportionately help left handed hitters & we have a bunch. Kepler - Polanco - Gallo all go away after next year. Let’s strengthen staff and not give away games with our Pen at 2022’s rate. (Smith - Pagán - Duffey - López) …….this bullpen debacle & poor health stopped us last year. 

We were assuming Correa would opt out in June & Lewis was our future until the knee injury. RIGHT? Correa was hurt & then brutal for 10 weeks last year. Farmer will be sufficient as a bridge to future.

We need to stay healthy at some higher level so Celistino never sees a major league uniform.

Strengthen pitching and run these guys back - maybe a vet DH guy like Evan Longoria for bench presence and depth?

With decent pitching 90 wins & wildcard seems reasonable.

As an alternative to Seattle's No. 30 draft pick, would the Twins consider trading Max Kepler for righthander Taylor Dollard?

Dollard, who turns 24 years old in February, was the 2022 Pitcher of the Year in the Double A Texas League where. Dollard had an ERA of 2.25, WHIP of 0.95 and K/BB of 4.23 in 27 starts covering 144 innings. The Mariners consider Dollard MLB-ready because their top pitching prospects skip the development-inhibiting Pacific Coast League (e.g. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby).

Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus trade values of $5.6 million to Dollard and $5.8 million to Kepler.

The Mariners might be reluctant to trade Dollard, a 2020 fifth-round (No. 137) draft pick with an established minor league record, over the faceless No. 30 pick in the 2023 draft.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Agree, aside from the starting pitchers, the vets being proposed as trades, would also be proposed as trades on a team that won the World Series the year prior.

The "veteran" Twins are Buxton, Gray, Gallo, Vasquez, Kepler, Polanco and Maeda.  Not sure who of these 7 would be traded.  From the comments seems Gray, Kepler, Polanco are Maeda are mentioned.  

50 minutes ago, Malachi said:

Great comment but uhhhhh, who said Lee will be ready this year?

Lee should see the bigs sometime this year. But your comment is correct - that is why Farmer stays this year. 

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

I do like the way Vazquez  frames his pitches.  Last season, Sanchez literally caught the ball and then moved it to the strike zone.....instead of one smooth movement.  The rest of the team (above) really isn't a change at all as far as the starters are concerned and good luck getting fair value for Gray and you won't get anything for Maeda.......so there really is nothing to work with here as far as a re-build is concerned unfortunately.

Yes - no point in trading Maeda now I don't think, as he won't get them much. If they keep him and he has a strong first half, flip him at the deadline. Polonco might bring back something decent, couple B prospects or something in light of the cheap contract with three years on it. He's another one though they might be better off gambling that he has a good first half. Worst case they keep him another year. 

Please, Please stop with the Larnach in Left routine. In the field his range is lousy and he has no clue on how to play the fence. And at the plate the league has figured out he can't hit any kind of breaking ball. Just as bad as Sano!!

As for Kepler the new Shift rule will add 30 points to his average. Only trade him if it is a package that brings in an Ace. A REAL Ace! Otherwise without pitching just trade them all for picks and move Saints to Mpls!! Won't win without pitching upgrades!!

I'm all for giving our youth opportunity but this type of tear down is disastrous, a clear recipe for tanking for many years to come and vie for the worst record in MLB history. Unfortunately now tanking is no longer beneficial. We had a taste of this kind of thing when we let Rosario go so Cave, Kiriloff & Larnach could man LF & sub CF, Now multiply that by INF, catching & SP.

OF - I can see we trade away Kepler & Gallo because of our glut there, because Gordon has proved himself dependable and hope between Larnach, Kiriloff & Wallner can man less demanding RF and maybe seek a young promising righty bat a little more advanced than Celestino.

INF Right now we have zero quality depth in the INF. Defensively our core we have a shaky 3B in Miranda,  an above avg. SS in Farmer that can't hit RHPs which we face about 92% of the time, a solid 2B in Polanco and at our least demanding INF position 1B we have many adequate candidates & more athletic players that can play there if need be. If we trade Polanco we'll have a super big hole at 2B, Arraez has no range. W/O a tear down Arraez is expendable, with tear down he's even more expendable. To give us any respectability, we need to keep Polanco until Lee or Martin  can dominate that position.

Catcher   Jeffers best quality is his above avg. framing which will soon become obsolete. He shouldn't be our future catcher and have no body close to give us anything on the MLB level. Jeffers trade value has been dropping as his value to the team. We should trade Jeffers for soon MLB ready Endy Rodriguez (PIT). 

Rotation   Trading Gray or Maeda makes absolutely no sense on their last year of their contract. We'll get a couple of low lottery tickets for the both of them. Because of the pitching management philosophy, the suggested rotation of Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Josh Winder will crumble the 1st month with replacement  SWR soon join Ober, Varland, Winder & maybe Mahle afterwards.

The problem of our losing isn't our players, it's management, poor & incompetent off season negotiations. This tear down talk is FO way to blame the players & taking the heat off them. Where tearing down the structure they can start all over again & have the excuse of "oh, we're rebuilding" gain many more years of employment.

But if the true problem of management, evaluations, coaching & negotiating with other teams are not dealt with. We'll be in a stuck in the Twinkie mode of perennial rebuilding & bottom feeding.

3 hours ago, saviking said:

Do everything except trading Gray and I'm all in. To me it's not a tear down, it's the team I have been dreaming about for years. Time to let the young kids have their day ..

Do everything except keep Polanco and Gray (midseason trade pieces if we flop)ND GRAY ( and have Arraez be a DH/1B/2B guy.  Send Wallner to AAA and he'll be up soon enough as an injury replacement. It is far from certain Kirilloff will be able to play and Larnach has had season ending injuries 2 years in a row.  

Considering most of the trades are in the rotation, and just a year in advance of contract expiration, they may as well pull the trigger now.

I would just go young from bullpen to the bench the owners not going spend money to bring any big money  free agent to Minnesota.

This works until Larnach, Kirilloff and two of your projected starting pitchers miss half the season with injuries.  Then it's 2022 (and 2021) all over again.

If Twins start season with no more significant additions I suspect they only win 70-75 games.  The fans will have pretty much booked Gallo out of town for his .199 batting average, a strike out rate in high 30% and his horrendous clutch hitting.  IMO that  11 mill could have been better spent on the bullpen.  I suggest that if these prospects everyone is so excited about don't have productive results in 2023, it's time to move on.  That includes Falvey, Lavigne, and Rocco.  

I think we could have really good starting pitching if guys are healthy. Maeda, Mahle, Gray, and Ryan. 

What is we traded low on Trevor Bauer? I know character is a big question mark but the dude can pitch. If you took on that salary LA might trade him for a 20-30 range prospect. 

Bullpen could be good. Especially if Alcala is healthy. 

I think SS is the big question mark. Brooks Lee is hard charging and lets hope Royce Lewis can take the position by all star break. I really think we can contend with what we have now. Larnach and Kiriloff healthy should give the outfield a boost. 

When older players are on the last year of their deal it is prudent to either trade them or extend them depending on how the team thinks the players are valued and how the team will perform in the coming year. Given that the team thinks they can compete in a weak AL Central I don't think they trade anyone during the offseason besides Max. I think extending Mahle makes sense given his youth but Gray might also be amendable to adding on 2 years to his deal. It's hard to say though given the crazy amount of spending this offseason if players will want to forgo FA next year but he seems like the type of person to favor stability over uncertainty. Beyond those 2 I think Pagan is addition by subtraction and gives other players in the system a chance to contribute and get experience with the big league club. Kenta is a possible trade candidate but only midseason imo, coming off a major injury he won't have much value. If the team sucks they can deal him to a contender if the team is competitive they can hold on to him and see about resigning him. Polanco is probably also a midseason trade candidate to give other guys like Austin Martin and Julien a chance to succeed in AAA before being promoted. Just like Kenta he can be dealt or held onto based on the team's performance. I think the Twins should also add a reliever or 2 in FA on a 1 year or 1 year + option deal to help shore up the BP after dumping Pagan to have available at the trade deadline like Fulmer and Phelps.

Not even getting into injuries taking games away from players or not being able to shift the defense, Arraez is not the best option at 2B due to balky knees and hamstring issues. I also don't think a full rebuild is necessary, unless the team starts horribly and stays that way to the All-Star break or trade deadline. Most of your trades could be made then.

The corner OF situation needs to be resolved before the season, and I would trade Arraez instead of Polanco, younger and 1 more year of control. I would also stretch Duran out this winter and in spring training, if he fails, move him back to the BP. Also, a losing team doesn't need a closer.  

I don't think the team is done making moves this winter, as un-inspiring as they may be to the TD posters. Let's see where this ends up before tearing it down.

Interesting. This could be a competitive team as you create it. It’s a young one even without a rebuild. I prefer for them to go full throttle after the Guardians, who surprised us. The Twins can be the team to do that this year. Avoid injuries, play up to potential. They’re overdue.

Pains me to say this, but I would be for trading Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco if the prospect return was right.  I would have to get a great return to give up Arraez though.  This team currently is not built to contend.  We have options at 2nd base. I would explore the market for Gray and Maeda at the deadline.  It is clear that the only way we will acquire a 1 or 2 starter is to acquire as many loto tickets as possible.  

It is reasonable to want to acquire talent to build around Lee, Miranda, Lewis, Kirillof, Larnoch, Gordon, Wallner, Julien, Martin, Rodriguez.  

I have a really hard time seeing Lewis as the long-term answer at shortstop.

4 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

Please, Please stop with the Larnach in Left routine. In the field his range is lousy and he has no clue on how to play the fence. And at the plate the league has figured out he can't hit any kind of breaking ball. Just as bad as Sano!!

As for Kepler the new Shift rule will add 30 points to his average. Only trade him if it is a package that brings in an Ace. A REAL Ace! Otherwise without pitching just trade them all for picks and move Saints to Mpls!! Won't win without pitching upgrades!!

Who in their right minds would trade an ace for kepler?

This explains the recent trade rumors for Kepler, Gray, Meada, and Arreaz.  The first three have a year before free agency with Arreaz having 3.  The Twins probably don’t want to offer Arreaz a long term deal with his knees.  We probably get a starter back in the trade that has more than 1 year of control left.  We rebuild in 2023 and come out strong in 2024.  I doubt teams will continue to go crazy next offseason  ….. then again….. with these trades our payroll going into 2024 & 2025 should be pretty low giving us plenty of ability to sign free agents.

Why rebuild now?  They are close to what I would consider the best way to construct a lineup. Some proven veterans with a farm system that produces 1-2 new starters every year. Whenever you add a Bunche of rookies all at once you likely age going to lose for a while. Pitching is a different story and I don’t really know what to say. They won’t invest free agent dollars or high draft picks for it and are poor at drafting and developing them. Anyway they have three decent starters on their last year. Let’s see what we can do. 

 I despised the signings of Shoemaker, Happ, Colome, Bundy, Archer, retreads, whose better days are long gone.  Like putting lipstick on  a pig and telling fans the FO has put together a contender. Go with the young guys and see what they can do. Maybe a couple the young pitching prospects pan out and off we go!

If you are getting rid of Kepler then you ought to be moving on from the other 29 year olds on the team

Will the 23 team be so bad that a tear down is warranted? I would say it depends on health, most of which are 29 or older

I get annoyed with all the arguments about how to define an “ace,” but in that spirit, I don’t see what you’re describing as a “rebuild” if all you’re trading is Polanco, Kepler, Maeda, Gray and Pagan. 

And given that you’d be trading several of these at a point of low value, why bother? You’re not going to get much now, and thus not much less if you do it later. Conversely, you might actually get more later if any of them have a good first half.

Plus, if they have a good first half, they’ve also potentially addressed an existing need. And if so, the team may actually be in the race. And if any them has had a good first half, but the team isn’t in the race, there’s probably a higher level of urgency on the part of trade partners than there is now. And at that point, they can trade several of them and open the Falvey Levine Buffet to also include Gallo and others among the offerings. 

So add me to the “no” column. 

I wouldn't mind seeing all those moves made. I assume Sano is gone, too. 

A shame about Kepler, he's a steady RF, but he lives in a small house...His ceiling is too close to his floor. Time to spin the wheel on the next round of talent. 

Polanco probably should have been dealt a couple years ago, when he was really bashing. Still near his peak, tho. Gotta break that logjam. Hope he winds up on a contender. 

This could and should be the year when we see if Falvey and Levine can draft and develop pitchers the way they did in Cleveland. My guess is no, and it's time to find out. Survivor: Twins pitching edition.

I think last year our front office got played in the trades they made. I think Steer and CES are going to be above average major league players and we barely got major league talent in return. That makes a rebuild tough when you ship off high level prospects for rentals or worse. That being said... A line up of Arraez, Polanco, Buck, Gallo, Miranda, Waller, larnach, kiriloff, Vazquez... If they're all healthy... Actually sounds like a winning line up with Gordon and Jeffers and maybe Julien or Lee, celestino on the bench. Larnach and Kiriloff have hit at every level but mlb. Wallner has shown no fear moving up. This lineup could hit with the right approach.

Starters of Gray Maeda Mahle Ryan and Ober might not win a playoff series but very well could win a playoff game which would be a start. No true number one but three maybe four number twos or threes. Trade or sign two more high level relief pitchers and let's go! 

This is a team that has very little room for error and I feel needs to change their hitting approach some but if healthy, they should compete to win this division.

One more year, then we lose a lot of pitching and things get scary. 

On 12/23/2022 at 3:21 PM, mnfireman said:

Not even getting into injuries taking games away from players or not being able to shift the defense, Arraez is not the best option at 2B due to balky knees and hamstring issues. I also don't think a full rebuild is necessary, unless the team starts horribly and stays that way to the All-Star break or trade deadline. Most of your trades could be made then.

The corner OF situation needs to be resolved before the season, and I would trade Arraez instead of Polanco, younger and 1 more year of control. I would also stretch Duran out this winter and in spring training, if he fails, move him back to the BP. Also, a losing team doesn't need a closer.  

I don't think the team is done making moves this winter, as un-inspiring as they may be to the TD posters. Let's see where this ends up before tearing it down.

Have seen it a number of times & don't understand the logic of trading Arraez? Has played 4 seasons and has a career .313 BA. Can play 1st - 2nd - 3rd in a pinch.

Youth & player control coupled with productivity is what we wish every player was described as - Louis Arraez.

If you don’t have a closer you’ll have a losing team.