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  • Real Or Pretender?

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    It seems like the baseball season just began. But by the end of the week, the Twins will have completed over 20% of their schedule.

    Following Monday's off-day, the Twins sit in a cluster at the top of the AL Central. Besides Kansas City, the rest of the division is separated by a mere 2.0 games. Cleveland might start to separate itself from the pack but for the most part, the AL Central was mired in mediocrity throughout April.

    If the Twins are going to stay in the playoff race, there are plenty of pieces that will need to fall into place. Each player mentioned below is going to need to decide if he is really playing up to his full potential or pretending to be something he can't sustain.

    So you make the call... Are they real or pretenders?

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

    Twins Video

    Miguel Sano

    Sano is off to a torrid start at the plate and he has shown some strong defensive skills at third base. Entering play on Monday, he only trailed Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in the American League WAR standings. He's also hitting the ball with authority. According to MLB's Statcast data, Sano is leading the big leagues in average exit velocity. One has to worry about the Sano that slumped during his sophomore season. He wasn't able to draw as many walks and his power wasn't as regular as his rookie campaign. However, the 24-year old slugger seems primed to make his mark this season. RESULT: REAL

    Ervin Santana

    Santana ran into his first hiccup on Sunday after nearly a perfect month of April. Even after allowing a season high six runs, his ERA only rose to 1.72. It seems highly unlikely for Santana to be able to sustain this level of the course of an entire season. His best ERA total for any season was 3.24 and he has a career ERA north of 4.00. He leads both leagues with a 0.79 WHIP while allowing 4.0 hits per nine. His career hits per nine average is more than twice his total this season and he has a career 1.27 WHIP. Santana might not turn into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight but there's no way he can be this good for all of 2017. RESULT: PRETENDER

    Brian Dozier

    After a record-breaking 2016 season, Dozier hasn't exactly set the world on fire to start 2017. His batting average is down to .229 but he is getting on base over 32% of the time. Dozier ranks second on the team with four home runs and he has a team leading six stolen bases. He ranks in the bottom half of AL when it comes to WAR for second basemen. There's nothing stopping Dozier from going on another hot streak as the season progresses. However, it seems more likely that he will be back to the .245/.320/.440 career hitter while averaging 23 home runs. This is the real version of Dozier even after his monster 2016 season. RESULT: REAL

    Hector Santiago

    While Santana has been getting a lot of pitching headlines, Santiago is quietly off to a great start. He ranks 13th in the AL in ERA and 16th in WHIP. He's pitched his entire seven year career in the AL and never posted an ERA under 3.33. He's striking out fewer batters per nine innings but he's also walking fewer batters and keeping the ball in the park. As a 29-year old, he has been part of three different organizations and he has been traded twice. He might be a veteran coming into his own or he could be taking advantage of some early struggles from opposing hitters. RESULT: THE JURY IS STILL OUT

    So who gets your vote for being real or being a pretender? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Willihammer

    Willihammer 4,021

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    The issue would be health. If he avoids injury it doesn't seem like his velo would lose so much that he would no longer be effective.

    He's probably good next year and then there is an option, all.at a reasonable rate. Seems like the kind of asset you would want to keep if you plan on being competitive (which they should).

    I'm not confident there is a sure thing pitching acquisition you get for Erv right now anyways. The theoretical trade is nice to dream but might smash into reality when the actual offers are on the table.

    Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline.

     

    Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.

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    yarnivek1972

    yarnivek1972 6,290

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Better than who they could acquire for Santana? I'd agree with that, but when you have to fill 3/5 of a rotation I'll take a controllable player with upside instead. I agree completely that he's better than any free agent they'd likely get. I'd be looking for other trades to help fill that void too. Trading only Santana makes little sense. It's simply one step in a multi-step process. This team has many holes that need filled. As I said, they've got 3/5 of a rotation to fill and most of a bullpen. There are no guarantees whether you keep him or trade him. However, since he should easily be the most valuable asset to a real contending team at the deadline, IMO, it makes more sense to deal him.

     

    I don't feel that the future is now. I feel that the future is next year. Sacrificing long term gains because they unexpectedly find themselves relevant in a putrid division is what I'm afraid of.

    Of course, if you trade Erv you have 4/5 of the rotation to fill unless you feel that Mejia is a sure thing. He'll probably be around, but I don't think he's much more than a 4 or 5 next year.

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    wsnydes

    wsnydes 12,843

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    It's been a fun read the last couple of pages with discussions on both sides of the fence. I've been leaning more toward contending now and next year by trading prospects for established pitching.... Frankly I'm tired of moving the goalposts for contention! 

    I'm tired of it too, but I don't see them as real this year so I don't really consider it moving the goalposts when next year was what I was looking at anyway.

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    wsnydes

    wsnydes 12,843

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    Of course, if you trade Erv you have 4/5 of the rotation to fill unless you feel that Mejia is a sure thing. He'll probably be around, but I don't think he's much more than a 4 or 5 next year.

    Like I've said in several posts now, that can't be their only deal.  They've got to supplement that move with more.  If that is their only move, it makes no sense at all.  I've never advocated to dealing only Erv, that's just one move of several.

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    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline.

     

    Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.

    If the Twins wanted to push contention back to 2019 Santana is a great trade chip.

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    yarnivek1972

    yarnivek1972 6,290

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Right. It's helpful to put real names to hypothetical trade scenarios.

     

    Maybe Falvey has some names from other organizations up his sleeve, but in general, don't expect a team trading for major league pitching to send back major league pitching in return. 

    This exactly.

     

    To get, you have to give.  I see a lot of posts suggesting we get.  Precious few willing to give up enough to get it.

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    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline.

     

    Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.

    Santana is not necessarily their best chip either, he's just the most veteran. Polanco, Rosario, Gordon, Kepler/Buxton (if you really want to retool), Dozier are all very solid chips.

     

    For strictly selling, Kintzler would be an ok chip, possibly Santiago if he rebounds a little.

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    drjim

    drjim 7,100

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    • Posted

    I keep hearing that it's not worth dealing Santana because he won't bring enough back.

    If that is true, then why don't we just trade for 3 more Ervin Santana level pitchers and have the best rotation in baseball?

    You can maybe get a better pitcher if you want to wait until 2019 and the prospect works out, or you can get a lesser pitcher but have him cheaper and more control.

     

    Or maybe Falvey and Levine are actually wizards.

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    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 4,113

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Gordon would be who I dangle as a feature piece. Fill in the rest with other prospects. 

    It's at least dealing from some depth so I can stomach it depending on the pitcher coming back. If they're shipping out prospects then I would rather see them go all in and get at least a 2 starter with multiple years of team control. It was said earlier but if they're dealing high end prospects for a mid to back end rotation starter to "shore up," the staff in an attempt to limp into the playoffs I'll be very disappointed. 

    Edited by KirbyDome89
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    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    You can maybe get a better pitcher if you want to wait until 2019 and the prospect works out, or you can get a lesser pitcher but have him cheaper and more control.

     

    Or maybe Falvey and Levine are actually wizards.

    Right, so again I ask, if Ervin Santana level pitchers with 2.5 years of control are worth so little on the trade market, as you suggest, then why don't we trade for 3 more just like him and have the best rotation in baseball for not just this year, but the following 2 seasons as well.

    That seems like a complete no brainer if he really has as little value as you suggest.

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    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    It's at least dealing from some depth so I can stomach it depending on the pitcher coming back. If they're shipping out prospects then I would rather see them go all in and get at least a 2 starter with multiple years of team control. It was said earlier but if they're dealing high end prospects for a mid to back end rotation starter to "shore up," the staff in an attempt to limp into the playoffs I'll be very disappointed. 

     

    I would be very disappointed too. We're on the same page trying to target at least a 2 with multiple years of control. 

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    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I don't know who the trade partners would be, but Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Granite can all play center. Not to mention Royce Lewis. There would be another position of true depth to deal from.

    Well those guys can play center in a pinch, but I'm not sure anyone would want them as their everyday CF.

    Kepler and Rosario probably don't have the range, Granite probably doesn't have the arm, and Lewis is too far away to even consider when evaluating depth.

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    Twinsoholic

    Twinsoholic 241

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The Royals have been playing very good baseball of late, so I think this series will tell us a lot about whether or no the Twins can continue to win more than they lose. Boston spanked them good, so the Twins need to show that they can bounce back and beat a team on the rise (win the series) like KC. If the Twins cannot handle the Royals, then it could be a long steep slide to the All Star break and beyond the A S game. Go Eduardo Escobar--clean up hitter!

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    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 4,113

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Or you can get a prospect, probably a solid one, but you would then sacrifice a significant amount of risk certainty and some time horizon.

     

    There is also risk in holding onto an aging player, and value lost by not moving him at his peak. Ervin is far from a sure thing to put up another 3 months performance like this. 

     

    But it's next year too. And the reality of who they would actually get back in a trade. I don't know if those advocating for a trade have a good sense of what he brings back.

     

    To me it sounds like everybody willing to let Ervin go is comfortable with a prospect(s) return. How comfortable are you with hoping the Twins spend real $$ in FA? They can put together a package of prospects and snag a pitcher, but is it reasonable to expect multiple moves like that? Probably not, so now you're looking at trading away major league players. Apparently Dozier is worthless, and Santiago never cashed in on the promise of that 4 game stretch in April. Either way the team is hurt, but I would rather have 4-5 years of Buxton/Kepler/even Polanco instead of 1-2 years of Ervin in his mid to late 30s. IMO it makes the most sense to trade an aging veteran having a career year.

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    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    There is also risk in holding onto an aging player, and value lost by not moving him at his peak. Ervin is far from a sure thing to put up another 3 months performance like this.

     

     

    To me it sounds like everybody willing to let Ervin go is comfortable with a prospect(s) return. How comfortable are you with hoping the Twins spend real $$ in FA? They can put together a package of prospects and snag a pitcher, but is it reasonable to expect multiple moves like that? Probably not, so now you're looking at trading away major league players. Apparently Dozier is worthless, and Santiago never cashed in on the promise of that 4 game stretch in April. Either way the team is hurt, but I would rather have 4-5 years of Buxton/Kepler/even Polanco instead of 1-2 years of Ervin in his mid to late 30s. IMO it makes the most sense to trade an aging veteran having a career year.

    Certainly flipping vets for prospects, punting the rest of this season and likely next year too is an option.

     

    Standing pat or making minor tweaks is not a bad thing either. If Santana stays, pitches decent, and then leaves as a free agent, that isn't a terrible outcome.

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