Real Or Pretender?

Honest question. If they aren't willing to move guys like Santana then where are the Twins finding pitching? They won't be big spenders in FA and the minor league system isn't exactly stocked with upside arms. What players have the necessary combination of value and expendability to bring back mid rotation or better starting pitching? 

 

Hopefully Ervin's July looks more like his April/May than his June, and the Twins can sell at or over market value. 

This is what I'm getting hung up on.  His numbers have been getting worse every month.  He obviously wasn't going to continue his April numbers throughout the season, but he is getting progressively worse.  Still solid, still reliable but how much longer will that hold?  I think that's the difference in the two opinions.  One thinks he'll be fine, the other doesn't.  I'm in the "doesn't" camp myself.  I think they're a pretender with Santana pitching well, so if he continues to slide well...

Bartolo Colon is 44. CC Sabathia is almost 37. Colon was good through last year. Sabathia has been up and down the last 6 years, but he's done fine the last couple. That's two who are active now. Ervin is in WAY better condition than either of those two.

They're exceptions though, that isn't the norm.  He never said that it was impossible.  He said that the odds were against it - which is true.

And, as I ssid, Ervin is in better condition than both of those guys. He also, like they have, reinvented himself a couple years ago. Do I think Ervin can be an all star the next two years? No. Better than average starter? Yes. There's really nothing that suggests an iminent rapid decline.

And more to the point, I think he's probably better the next two years than anyone the Twins might be able to trade for or sign as a FA.

Better than who they could acquire for Santana?  I'd agree with that, but when you have to fill 3/5 of a rotation I'll take a controllable player with upside instead.  I agree completely that he's better than any free agent they'd likely get.  I'd be looking for other trades to help fill that void too.  Trading only Santana makes little sense.  It's simply one step in a multi-step process.  This team has many holes that need filled.  As I said, they've got 3/5 of a rotation to fill and most of a bullpen.  There are no guarantees whether you keep him or trade him.  However, since he should easily be the most valuable asset to a real contending team at the deadline, IMO, it makes more sense to deal him.  

I don't feel that the future is now.  I feel that the future is next year.  Sacrificing long term gains because they unexpectedly find themselves relevant in a putrid division is what I'm afraid of.

You can get a cheaper and controlled player in exchange for Santana, but for that trade off you have to sacrifice performance. Or you can get a prospect, probably a solid one, but you would then sacrifice a significant amount of risk certainty and some time horizon.

 

Not sure I would want to give up any of those three from the Twins rotation at this moment. Could change if the Twins really fall off.

I get that, and I'm willing to accept that.  Like I mentioned earlier, trading only Santana doesn't make any sense.  There needs to be supplemental moves to continue to bolster the pitching whether it be at the deadline or in the offseason, via trade or FA.

Like Mike said, yours is a fair stance and I feel solid logic.  I just don't agree with the approach.

Interesting. You would trade Santana right now for another teams Gonsalves, for instance. That would be a tough one. That will end any hope for this year and probably next year too.

I think you're looking at this singularly, as if this would be the only thing they do.  If that's what ends up happening, then I agree with you.  If they do trade Santana though, I think the FO realizes that they still have work to do.  There isn't a lot of depth in the system, that needs to be brought in somewhere along the line.  That won't happen via FA and drafting it is a long, risky process.

The other option is keeping Santana and doing other things as well. 

Yes, that is an option.  It would take dealing the depth you currently have to do it and then you don't have much, if anything, to acquire that last piece that you need to be a legitimate title team.

Dealing Santana preserves the depth you currently have plus gives you another piece(s).  Does it hurt in the short term?  Probably.  I'm not all that concerned about this year though. 

Interesting. You would trade Santana right now for another teams Gonsalves, for instance. That would be a tough one. That will end any hope for this year and probably next year too.

Right. It's helpful to put real names to hypothetical trade scenarios.

Maybe Falvey has some names from other organizations up his sleeve, but in general, don't expect a team trading for major league pitching to send back major league pitching in return.